Absolute Vorticity

Good morning! It is time for me to officially change my call. When you've got to throw in the towel and change based on the data then you must. Going more wet then wintry with this new forecast. Agree on the majority of T-giving being dry and mild around 60 degrees! Light rain possible overnight and on Black Friday with the front coming in but not a huge deal at all. Heavier rains with the southern system comes late Sat into the day on Sunday. Thinking 0.50-1" event total for the entire period.

Good thing about the mjo is the move into the milder phases looks to be mainly phase 6. I always worry when it comes out of the COD and that phase is 3 or 4 and even sometimes 5 but though its barely in phase 5 with the recent update phase 6 looks more likely. Then it should move through 6 and 7 over the next few weeks and then what happens. If it continues into phase 8 better chances of winter like conditions but somehow it stalls or just falls into the COD in phase 6 or 7 then winter like weather is centered over the central USA. The mjo prediction so far this season has been good so hopefully we can rely on that to continue.

One thing I keep seeing in the long range is a stormier pattern and a gradient temp. pattern setting up which is classic La Nina MJO Phase 7 in December, Just hope we're on the correct side lol

EDIT: EPS and GEFS really show this well and are in nice agreement in early Dec. If the cold can sink a little further south then what is shown there, by mid December, things could get awful interesting around here.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:44 am Good thing about the mjo is the move into the milder phases looks to be mainly phase 6. I always worry when it comes out of the COD and that phase is 3 or 4 and even sometimes 5 but though its barely in phase 5 with the recent update phase 6 looks more likely. Then it should move through 6 and 7 over the next few weeks and then what happens. If it continues into phase 8 better chances of winter like conditions but somehow it stalls or just falls into the COD in phase 6 or 7 then winter like weather is centered over the central USA. The mjo prediction so far this season has been good so hopefully we can rely on that to continue.

3/4's of the MJO models have it in Phase 7 by early December so we'll see how that works out. Aussie model wants to take the MJO thru the entire tour of the cold phases and even back into 5 before going into the COD. No other model shows that so will toss it out. I am not convinced yet that we get to Phase 8 in December. Phase 7 yes, So I think the gradient temp pattern we are seeing is legit. SE ridge and Nina Forcing trying to fight the -EPO and -NAO. Should be interesting...

More early season rarities as far as high pressures go .. West Canada already had one , now , been watching for days expecting models to ease up , but they haven't, showing a 1075 high pressure in Siberia/Asia at the end of the month. Rare in the middle of Jan. , but crazy rare in late nov

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:38 am More early season rarities as far as high pressures go .. West Canada already had one , now , been watching for days expecting models to ease up , but they haven't, showing a 1075 high pressure in Siberia/Asia at the end of the month. Rare in the middle of Jan. , but crazy rare in late nov

I love seeing this occurring so early in the season. With a weak PV and tendencies for blocking, which we've already seen, a period of severe cold and wintry weather could easily move into the Lower 48 at some point during either December or January. This absolutely needs to be watched. But the Siberian High building early is a good sign for down the road purposes.

DT still honking about December:

https://wxrisk.com/about-dec-2022-why-d ... qVK13I86EY

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:38 am More early season rarities as far as high pressures go .. West Canada already had one , now , been watching for days expecting models to ease up , but they haven't, showing a 1075 high pressure in Siberia/Asia at the end of the month. Rare in the middle of Jan. , but crazy rare in late nov

I love seeing this occurring so early in the season. With a weak PV and tendencies for blocking, which we've already seen, a period of severe cold and wintry weather could easily move into the Lower 48 at some point during either December or January. This absolutely needs to be watched. But the Siberian High building early is a good sign for down the road purposes.

Les I love the pattern and how its shaping up. Will check Brian's and DT'S video after I post but getting milder in late November and early December is a a process that needs to happen. We used up some decent cold the past 10 days but that flow even if it remained from Northern Canada would moderate after so much time has gone by. We need the area in the polar regions to get really cold and Northern Canada has been able to stay on the cold side this fall but much of Siberia not so much and this is in regards to temps compared to normal. Siberia has got much heavier snows than normal for mid-November so once you get a high to form over that region with deeper than normal snow pack then you can see a high pressure rather high. Not sure if we reach 1075 which is wild but 1060 very possible. Yesterday I mentioned how eastern China and Japan are starting to see some storminess and this is also another sign I watch. Tends to take 2-3 weeks before the storminess reaches us directly though it no doubt can affect the western USA earlier. Are storms big enough to grab some of the cold air that will be building up over the next 2 weeks. Blocking is always key and so far blocking near Greenland has shown up and will that trend continue as we get into winter. Not a must for blocking there to get some decent winter weather but chances go up when that happens. Going to stop since I probably go over this info way to much but I know some folks get aggravated when they see a nice milder period and I try to give a pattern I believe will show up in several weeks.

So watching the next two weeks I want to see more storminess in the northwest USA which will hopefully give the northern and central plains a nice snow pack and then hopefully the STJ can move into southern California after that and have the northern jet is moving towards the poles and hopefully some of that cold will get involved when we have the STJ at its height. Still tons of pieces with this puzzle but I am still bullish on a second half nice December in terms of winter weather.

GEFs 10 day possible evolution at 500mb, as was brought up earlier , if this correct an active west , eventually the plains and possibly eventually OV. At least if we see the SE ridge we will probably finally see the GOM moisture finally move back into the OV

The OP GFS today is likely rushing it. But look at 12/7 with that fantasy snow system. I could see a set up like that sometime during the 2nd or 3rd week of December.... whenever the pattern change occurs.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:09 pm GEFs 10 day possible evolution at 500mb, as was brought up earlier , if this correct an active west , eventually the plains and possibly eventually OV. At least if we see the SE ridge we will probably finally see the GOM moisture finally move back into the OV


floop-gefsens-2022112212.500h_anom-mean_na.gif.629f804ded196e4e9491b8dc34792125.gif

Bgoney the one key you brought up is the southeast ridge and that has been missing since middle of August. Later this week into the weekend we may get a peak of that and why I am going with .5-1 inch range. Next week and into the following week I can see the southeast getting stronger and yes we know a strong southeast ridge can kill us during the winter in terms of milder weather but you need that as well to open up the GOM which I still believe is loaded with moisture.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:17 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:09 pm GEFs 10 day possible evolution at 500mb, as was brought up earlier , if this correct an active west , eventually the plains and possibly eventually OV. At least if we see the SE ridge we will probably finally see the GOM moisture finally move back into the OV


floop-gefsens-2022112212.500h_anom-mean_na.gif.629f804ded196e4e9491b8dc34792125.gif

Bgoney the one key you brought up is the southeast ridge and that has been missing since middle of August. Later this week into the weekend we may get a peak of that and why I am going with .5-1 inch range. Next week and into the following week I can see the southeast getting stronger and yes we know a strong southeast ridge can kill us during the winter in terms of milder weather but you need that as well to open up the GOM which I still believe is loaded with moisture.

A weak SE ridge is good for us actually so you don't get a Nor' Easter or a Cold / dry pattern. It's position is also key. I like it centered over the Bahama's off the SE Coast. A -PNA pattern can work as long as the -EPO and -NAO are stronger and can dominant the affects of the Nina forcing. That is what we want ala 2010-2011, 1995-1996, 2000-2001 etc etc.

Euro looks good per my updated forecast for Turkey Day and beyond. Light showers move in Thanksgiving late in the day ending very early Friday. Then the second part with the more impressive rains comes in late Sat afternoon and ends around midday Sunday. Rainfall amounts from the Euro at CVG shows 0.86" so pretty much in between my 0.50 to 1" call. Perfect! I always hate to change my forecast but I had to per the data.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:36 pm Euro looks good per my updated forecast for Turkey Day and beyond. Light showers move in Thanksgiving late in the day ending very early Friday. Then the second part with the more impressive rains comes in late Sat afternoon and ends around midday Sunday. Rainfall amounts from the Euro at CVG shows 0.86" so pretty much in between my 0.50 to 1" call. Perfect! I always hate to change my forecast but I had to per the data.

Les we were both on the same page before and also with the change as well. The biggest problem I had was with the upper system and really I thought that was going to move out on Friday and instead its 24 hours later and that makes a big difference in the forecast. First of all if the upper system would have moved out Friday I believe it could of had more in the way of cold air to bring to the surface. Having this come in later Saturday the atmosphere is somewhat warmer and not as much cold air up above to bring to the surface. Saying that can we get a little snow of sleet early Sunday morning for a few hours and sure if the timing is in the early morning and you are under the upper systems but this will cause no problems in terms of the roads. Then a nice warming trend next week and then we sort of wait on the next pattern change. The gfs is showing the storm you mentioned and as we have seen in most winters that model tends to be to fast with a system like that but then you end up 7-10 days later where a system like that finally develops.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:36 pm Euro looks good per my updated forecast for Turkey Day and beyond. Light showers move in Thanksgiving late in the day ending very early Friday. Then the second part with the more impressive rains comes in late Sat afternoon and ends around midday Sunday. Rainfall amounts from the Euro at CVG shows 0.86" so pretty much in between my 0.50 to 1" call. Perfect! I always hate to change my forecast but I had to per the data.

Les we were both on the same page before and also with the change as well. The biggest problem I had was with the upper system and really I thought that was going to move out on Friday and instead its 24 hours later and that makes a big difference in the forecast. First of all if the upper system would have moved out Friday I believe it could of had more in the way of cold air to bring to the surface. Having this come in later Saturday the atmosphere is somewhat warmer and not as much cold air up above to bring to the surface. Saying that can we get a little snow of sleet early Sunday morning for a few hours and sure if the timing is in the early morning and you are under the upper systems but this will cause no problems in terms of the roads. Then a nice warming trend next week and then we sort of wait on the next pattern change. The gfs is showing the storm you mentioned and as we have seen in most winters that model tends to be to fast with a system like that but then you end up 7-10 days later where a system like that finally develops.

Tim, I thought the -NAO would have more of an impact for a slower and more phased system. The slowness part I got right but the phased part, I did not so it's coming out in 2 pieces.

A nice afternoon out there! Tomorrow will also be nice. Even Thanksgiving for the most part looks good. Safe travels for those who are traveling. People are coming here per the usual.

For CVG: 56 for a high and 25 for a low. Drought and a dry air mass at work!

Lol, UC and Ohio state had to travel 4000 miles to play each other. That's currently only a little further in the pacific than our piece of energy that's coming for the weekend

Good morning all and we have one more morning in the 20s then it's mid to U50s today and 60 tomorrow! Enjoy it before some light rain comes in. A break then late Sat into Sun with our next round. No changes from me as far as timing and amounts go. We look to have one more system to keep an eye on to close out the month. This one looks rainy with a cold front.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:29 am Good morning all and we have one more morning in the 20s then it's mid to U50s today and 60 tomorrow! Enjoy it before some light rain comes in. A break then late Sat into Sun with our next round. No changes from me as far as timing and amounts go. We look to have one more system to keep an eye on to close out the month. This one looks rainy with a cold front.

Good Morning Les and your forecast looks good. The first round will probably be less the .25 but the rain coming in later Saturday and Sunday should give us .5-.1 so I have increase my total rainfall by .25. I agree next week we get another system and that one could even bring a thundershower as the storm wraps up to the west. I know models tend to be getting cold in here faster than I expect and though I am not biting on that yet I do see where it could happen and that is because the coldest of air that builds up over the next 5-7 days is once again on this side of the planet so getting colder air to tap will make it somewhat easier to get colder earlier.Blocking looks to get going as well over Alaska and Greenland and either one helps but if somehow you get those to join hands then you are talking about a much broader trough over the USA. I still want to see a better snow pack to our northwest over the next week because without that moderation to a certain extent will happen. Saying that the recent cold outbreak did not have in the way of snow on the ground in the USA and it got really cold. Another helper is we are getting into the time of year with daylight hours at their minimal. So the early call of a nice winter in December is getting better and better. Do we get snow and I am sure but how much is the unknown but hopefully with the upcoming patter we cash in a few times.

On a side note and was outside yesterday and had a few Christmas decorations that you need to put into the ground and yes its been cold and sort of shocked how frozen it was. My last time today with cleaning up the yard and then I can ready for the month of December.

I need to grind leaves one more time then I'll be ready to receive some snow in December. So we've got the next 2 rain makers to track to finish out November. I am thinking for a pattern change to cold sometime in the Dec 10-15th period. Last time I made a call I was a week late so I wouldn't mind that again. But realistically, mid Dec is a good call right now for the flip back to winter.

Seeing a lot more MJO models now getting it into Phase 8 in December before dying into the neutral circle. Euro and GFS now showing it along with the Aussies. The rest keep it locked in 7 which isn't awful as once discussed. Should this phase 8 be real, then in about a week, the fantasy guidance ought to start really coming in much colder.

EDIT: MJO def in Phase 6 now with tropical convection centered NW of Australia. Invest 94S has a low chance of development at this time per JTWC.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 8:22 am I need to grind leaves one more time then I'll be ready to receive some snow in December. So we've got the next 2 rain makers to track to finish out November. I am thinking for a pattern change to cold sometime in the Dec 10-15th period. Last time I made a call I was a week late so I wouldn't mind that again. But realistically, mid Dec is a good call right now for the flip back to winter.

Les though we are getting milder over the next 7 days its not like big time warm and dry spell. Going to be stormier and though temps will average above normal its nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year and really sort of normal late Nov/early Dec as we get mainly rain but folks to the west are starting to have snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 8:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 8:22 am I need to grind leaves one more time then I'll be ready to receive some snow in December. So we've got the next 2 rain makers to track to finish out November. I am thinking for a pattern change to cold sometime in the Dec 10-15th period. Last time I made a call I was a week late so I wouldn't mind that again. But realistically, mid Dec is a good call right now for the flip back to winter.

Les though we are getting milder over the next 7 days its not like big time warm and dry spell. Going to be stormier and though temps will average above normal its nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year and really sort of normal late Nov/early Dec as we get mainly rain but folks to the west are starting to have snow.

I agree Tim. The cold and snow will be building to our NW at this time and ready to invade our area when the time is right. What you do think about an early call for the wintry flip here? I mentioned 12/10-12/15.