Absolute Vorticity

12Z NAM shows the highest chance of rain at CVG to be Mon night into Tues morning when 0.32" falls. For Mon afternoon the activity is isolated.

12Z GFS showing 0.25 to 0.50" for most of the area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:13 pm 12Z GFS showing 0.25 to 0.50" for most of the area.

Les,looks like the gfs is heading towards the Euro which I agree with. Again that seems to be the correct amount though we know in the summer some areas can miss the perfect timing and possible to only get 1/10th or so. Can anyone get more than .50 and maybe but I don't see anything much higher than .5 and believe most will be in the .25-.4 when all is said and done.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:13 pm 12Z GFS showing 0.25 to 0.50" for most of the area.

Les,looks like the gfs is heading towards the Euro which I agree with. Again that seems to be the correct amount though we know in the summer some areas can miss the perfect timing and possible to only get 1/10th or so. Can anyone get more than .50 and maybe but I don't see anything much higher than .5 and believe most will be in the .25-.4 when all is said and done.

I think that will be the general rule also 0.25 to 0.50" but isolated amounts of an inch plus I still think are doable for folks that can see repeated rounds. Much like how summer is gone, The rich get richer, etc.

86 at 1pm. Looking at that 90 seems like no doubter but the dew points are in the low 70's and some clouds should develop. Still going to stay at 88 but if we hit 90 would not be a shocker.

90 in my hood right now...

SPC has a marginal risk out for everyone for Monday. Damaging winds are the main hazards.

12Z Euro has 0.70" for CVG. Decent shot Monday but the highest chances come Tues morning with the frontal passage.

88 so far at CVG today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:19 pm 12Z Euro has 0.70" for CVG. Decent shot Monday but the highest chances come Tues morning with the frontal passage.

88 so far at CVG today.

Les I could no doubt use the rain. Cleaned up the lawn yesterday and many light tan areas with plenty of dead leaves starting to fall. Happens every late August and just the start of leaves falling. My problem is I have a 910am tee time on Tuesday but I will gladly take the rain and can only get in another round later in the week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:19 pm 12Z Euro has 0.70" for CVG. Decent shot Monday but the highest chances come Tues morning with the frontal passage.

88 so far at CVG today.

Les I could no doubt use the rain. Cleaned up the lawn yesterday and many light tan areas with plenty of dead leaves starting to fall. Happens every late August and just the start of leaves falling. My problem is I have a 910am tee time on Tuesday but I will gladly take the rain and can only get in another round later in the week.

Wed - Probably Sunday looks great for golf! My black walnut so far is the only tree dropping leaves this early. It's always the first one no matter if I've had a bunch of rain or not. Rest of the trees are fine due to the nice rains I've had. Fall color in my hood should be decent this year.

We have a contest day now... 89'ed as of 3pm so 90 should occur today I would think.

So far we have hit 89 at CVG and heat index of 94. Glad I did my yard work on Saturday and will do again next weekend as I will head back to SC on Labor Day but gone for only 1 week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:58 pm We have a contest day now... 89'ed as of 3pm so 90 should occur today I would think.

Les we always talk about how you can get a 90 degree day about 1 day ahead of a cold front in the summer. Once we get into September getting to 90 is tougher and usually its when we have the dew points that get into the 40's or 50's and you get the temp that rises 35 or more degrees because of the drier air.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 3:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:58 pm We have a contest day now... 89'ed as of 3pm so 90 should occur today I would think.

Les we always talk about how you can get a 90 degree day about 1 day ahead of a cold front in the summer. Once we get into September getting to 90 is tougher and usually its when we have the dew points that get into the 40's or 50's and you get the temp that rises 35 or more degrees because of the drier air.

I think the only way a 90 occurs in Sept is if a big ridge builds out ahead of a tropical system. The 90 would only be for a day or so like when you're ahead of a cold front for example.

Seeing isolated to scattered showers popping over IN. CU field on satellite shows higher cloud tops then the CU that is over us. Higher dews / PWATS exist there vs over us so the chances for us for rain today is going to be lower then folks to the West. Even some severe storms possible near Chicago right now.

90 officially at CVG as of 4pm... DAY and CMH also sitting at 90.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:06 am Enjoyed the video Les,

Quickly advancing into peak Hurricane season and still all quiet in the Atlantic. Saving precious Jet fuel for the Hurricane hunters.

LaNina rockin and rolling along, easterlies along the equator are ripping and will overpower any advancement of the MJO in its eastward movement, which coincides with a lackluster Atlantic tropical activity

I hadn't thought of that, bro. Great observation on that one, too.

Currently 88 here in G'ville.

Congratulations Hawaii as they thrashed Curacao 13-3 for the 2022 Little League World Series Championship!!

Couple of cells left W of I-65 in IN otherwise a quiet night for us until we see what happens tomorrow with the front. Convection in Central and N ILL currently with the front.

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Hope the region can cash in tonight/overnight because the GOM(latest models), for our region, will be closed for business until roughly mid Sept. That's pretty much what last week's JMA showed anyway with a wetter second half of September on tap

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:39 am Hope the region can cash in tonight/overnight because the GOM(latest models), for our region, will be closed for business until roughly mid Sept. That's pretty much what last week's JMA showed anyway with a wetter second half of September on tap

The models I have looked at show our best chance overnight into Tues morning. Anything that happens before that is bonus rains. Then gorgeous weather as we've been talking about. We get a nice front somewhere around 9/7-9/8 time frame then we are dry again until the 2nd half as you mentioned. So basically we have two nice fronts and not much else unless the tropics throw a wrench into things. So far way too early to know since nothing has formed yet.

That was a great video Tron . I wish you would do more of those especially during the winter for snowstorms or at least seasonal or monthly updates. I subscribed to a few and some are very good like you but others are just god awful and will do anything to get people to push play. I just recently flagged a video from direct weather for misinformation and misleading. He use to be a descent forecaster when he started but now every single video is clickbait. I cant take those idiots anymore I need a real forecaster like Les

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:57 am That was a great video Tron . I wish you would do more of those especially during the winter for snowstorms or at least seasonal or monthly updates. I subscribed to a few and some are very good like you but others are just god awful and will do anything to get people to push play. I just recently flagged a video from direct weather for misinformation and misleading. He use to be a descent forecaster when he started but now every single video is clickbait. I cant take those idiots anymore I need a real forecaster like Les

Thank you Charles! I wish I had more time to do them too actually. It's a little bit of work getting the Power Point Presentation set up but after that, it's easy and mainly a waiting game for You Tube to publish it. I'll try and find some time if we get some good winter storms brewing.

The bulk of the AM convection has been a swing and a miss, which is good news. We should be able to build up some heat and humidity for storm development this afternoon and evening. I think most folks NW of Cincinnati have the best chance early in the afternoon and the best chance for us down here is in the evening / overnight hours and also for Tues morning with the actual frontal passage. Basically no changes from me. Still have a marginal risk out for strong winds as well from the SPC. So that is our forecast focus today into tomorrow then we can all relax with the nice weather upcoming, while keeping one eye open on the tropics.