Absolute Vorticity

I keep seeing the years 1975 and 1976 with temps and dew points. This was during a longer La Nina Episode and btw that is exactly what is going on this year. Just wild to look at past events and this does help somewhat in predicting a pattern that may happen. Can we switch to a weak El Nino for about 2 years as this would help more storms to send their moisture from Hawaii and we get the pineapple express in the winter. Hawaii has been very dry with this La Nina but they become very wet when an El Nino takes hold.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:19 am I keep seeing the years 1975 and 1976 with temps and dew points. This was during a longer La Nina Episode and btw that is exactly what is going on this year. Just wild to look at past events and this does help somewhat in predicting a pattern that may happen. Can we switch to a weak El Nino for about 2 years as this would help more storms to send their moisture from Hawaii and we get the pineapple express in the winter. Hawaii has been very dry with this La Nina but they become very wet when an El Nino takes hold.

And if you recall once we got out of the Nina's and got the Weak Nino, we had some fabulous winters! Don't think it'll happen this winter as I expect La Nina to continue into the Fall. But the winter of 23-24 def could be interesting.

No doubt Les and that is what I was hinting at and will be interesting to see if this plays out over the next couple of year. Brian had another great heat talk this morning and pointed out where the most likely chance of rain would be the next 2 days and that is in eastern Kentucky off the mountains. This can drift westward as well but how far west can they go is the key. Also with this much moisture available we can still get an isolated storm and I understand about the dry air well above us but I have seen where the moisture content is so high you can get a storm even with the dry air above. Usually isolated though so that is why over the next 2 days I have put that % at 5 and lets see what happens later today. I know he was not to excited about the front on Thursday as most of the models are not showing much but I believe that will tend to increase the next 2 days.

Will have to watch our next severe MCS chance on Thursday night according to the 12z NAM.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:23 am Will have to watch our next severe MCS chance on Thursday night according to the 12z NAM.

Hey Mike. I am not sure if this is a true MCS or just the cold front coming through. What happens with these cold fronts often during the summer is the coolest of the air is directed at the northeast USA. This looks to be the case here and yes we can get some affects from the front with thunderstorms that form . So we will see a much better brand of air starting to enter here on Friday and some really nice temps Saturday and Sunday before the heat comes back in and this makes sense with the cold front giving us just a glancing blow.

Temp up to 93 in my hood.

Good afternoon all... got back from seeing Top Gun Maverick and it was a great movie! If you remember the original like I do, the new one is as good if not better then the original IMO.

Ok... back to the weather and I have 92 here, 93 at CVG as of the 3pm reading. Not seeing much from the GFS for Thurs but looks decent for late Thurs night / Fri morning time frame. The 12Z Euro has scattered action Thurs afternoon and nothing else happening. So anyway... sometime Thurs into Fri appears to be the next shot for rain for the area.

Good Afternoon and a lovely day in progress. I saw 93 at cvg with a heat index of 109. That is enough imo lol. We got the forecast going through the weekend but what happens if the ridge builds back in here next week like models are starting to show. This is not good temperature wise as the drying over the weekend will start to have more affects on dew points and then that reflects in how high we can go temperature wise. Again way to early to pinpoint temps but 93 may be a walk in the park. Saying that dew points may be more reasonable in the low 70's lol so the heat index may be a few degrees cooler. Last time I remember it feeling this hot was about 10 years ago in July. I was in western Kentucky at a state park and I remember heat index's reaching 114. This is getting close to that today.

If we do get any showers today they should pop up in the next couple of hours. Still not expecting much but would not be surprised to see a few here and there pop up. They would pop up quick,rain themselves out and that would be the end of them.

93 / 76 / 106 as of 4pm at CVG. The ridge is centered over the KY / TN boarder today and visible satellite does not show any CU forming as of yet so any showers today IMO look pretty doubtful. You can kind of see where the boundary is now from yesterday running from Detroit thru NE Ohio down into WV and the Mid Atlantic.

Per John Gumm at Local 12.... Power outage map numbers are as of 4pm today. Heat warning now thru 8pm tomorrow for everyone.

Looks like 92 might be it for me today. CVG is now at 94 as of 5pm. If that stands, then we missed the record by 1 degree.

From ILN:

[4:55 PM] ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1895.

Another breezy day to take a bit of a bite out of the heat/humidity. Scattered tree damage all the way in to work this morning. Along with large limbs broken off , saw quite a few large trees uprooted because of the saturated ground

CMH made weather history today... The dewpoint made it to 82 which is a new record for the site. Per our buddy Josh over at SWC Forecast Center on Facebook, 80.6 was the previous record.

92 with a dewpoint of 82 creating a heat index of 115 at the Columbus airport. You will be hard pressed to ever find a heat index that high in the state of Ohio. I'm sure it's not a record, but very rare for the state of Ohio.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:56 pm CMH made weather history today... The dewpoint made it to 82 which is a new record for the site. Per our buddy Josh over at SWC Forecast Center on Facebook, 80.6 was the previous record.

It's up to 83 now at the 6 o'clock hour for Columbus. Amazing! Heat index is still 115 there.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:56 pm CMH made weather history today... The dewpoint made it to 82 which is a new record for the site. Per our buddy Josh over at SWC Forecast Center on Facebook, 80.6 was the previous record.

It's up to 83 now at the 6 o'clock hour for Columbus. Amazing! Heat index is still 115 there.

Incredible! That has beaten CVG's record of 82. I said it was 81 yesterday which was wrong. That was the June record. The all time dewpoint record for CVG was 82 in July (forgot the year).

18Z GFS continues the 12Z GFS's signal of a little something brewing late Thurs night into Friday for the Tri-state area.

I wonder how "young pup" is doing in that soupy air?Haven't seen any posts from him in a while.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:26 pm I wonder how "young pup" is doing in that soupy air?Haven't seen any posts from him in a while.

I see JP post on Facebook all the time. Busy working usually.

Didn't get any measurable rainfall in my gauge from yesterday / last night but did get 1.20" from this past weekend so am doing well in the H2O dept.

Currently 91 here in G'ville.

Reached 94 at CVG, 95 at DAY and 93 at CMH.

DAY's 95 set a new record for the date eclipsing 94 from 1895, 1943 and 1988.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:30 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:26 pm I wonder how "young pup" is doing in that soupy air?Haven't seen any posts from him in a while.

I see JP post on Facebook all the time. Busy working usually.

Wonder if he had any damage in or near Columbus?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:30 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:26 pm I wonder how "young pup" is doing in that soupy air?Haven't seen any posts from him in a while.

I see JP post on Facebook all the time. Busy working usually.

Wonder if he had any damage in or near Columbus?

I have no idea.

Heads-up for those who are serviced by Rumpke, like myself i.e.

During these 90+ degree days the crews, if possible, would like customers to have their trash receptacles and recyclables at the curb the evening before instead of during the morning of one's pickup day.