Absolute Vorticity

If correct, we've got a Feb 21 re-do on the way. Ugh...

Indy had gone all in and a 42 hour window of a winter storm warning, you don't see that everyday

Yea ,, eastern part of tri state a freezing rain nightmare and sleet/FZ for nearly everone else

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:22 pm Some ice but a big ole sleet storm S of I-70 to about CVG then ice storm Southern counties / SE Crew. Manly rain S of I-64 in KY.

It’s definitely a NAM run when 2/3rds of the state is ice!

No doubt coming down to the thermals. The system itself is about the same strength but a little further northeast. I can see why Indy has went into full winter storm warning and if the recent runs are true over a foot very possible up there.

I thought the system itself was further northeast but the speed is a tad quicker so that tells me its not gaining strength but those warmer thermals may be around somewhat longer. Lets see the gfs on the next run but no doubt the models are in agreement with the strength and placement of the waves but the thermals can no doubt cause some major busts to certain areas especially towards I-70

What a nice storm folks and timing is so key. How far southeast does the colder air move and then sort of stall as the second wave moves northeast. I give folks a lot of credit for making a forecast this early because this system is tough to call because of precip types. The nam is starting to get into its wheelhouse so you can never ignore that model especially when talking about thermals. I believe this forecast will be much easier for Indy than CVG because of the precip types.

Alright, lets see if the 18z GFS holds to the previous runs?

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:25 pm If correct, we've got a Feb 21 re-do on the way. Ugh...

At least we are prepared expecting sleet. Last year was at game time all the sleet showed up.

The 3km NAM is a tad colder with the thermals, but still a sleet storm for CVG

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:25 pm If correct, we've got a Feb 21 re-do on the way. Ugh...

At least we are prepared expecting sleet. Last year was at game time all the sleet showed up.

Let's hope we expect sleet and it changes to snow as a surprise??

tpweather wrote: over a foot very possible up there.

I want a foot of snow too!!!

A lot of talk about this storm around the office. I think for those snow lovers in the Cincy area this is setting up to be a great disappointment. Everyone is going to be looking jealously towards Indy...

Not looking forward to the sleet fest.

18Z NAM text data

Sleet fest.....

This is gonna be an awesome storm to watch unfold. I have been worse suspect to thinking we’re going to see more sleet and snow unfortunately but regardless this is going to be a wild but awesome storm

Sleet is better then the ice, but it's still going to be a *itch to remove lol

A novel from the boys:

Rain begins to overspread the region Wednesday morning, with
coverage increasing throughout the afternoon. Ensemble members
continue to show unseasonably high PWAT values existing from the
enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf. As such, QPF values
continue to trend fairly high on Wednesday, with locations along
and west of I-75 observing as much as 0.5" to 1.00" of rain-
equivalent accumulation. While most of this is expected to fall
as rain, locations in our far northwest may begin to see a
transition to a brief wintry-mix followed by snow Wednesday
afternoon. This is driven by the longwave H5 trough slowly
propagating eastward, spilling in colder air aloft that will
help with changing the p-type.

The counties that are currently highlighted in the Winter Storm
Warning are the locations where confidence is highest on
significant, accumulating snowfall amounts occurring. This is
mainly driven by the rapid transition to snow occurring by
Wednesday evening and persisting through Wednesday night. In our
remaining southern counties, more mixed precipitation appears to
be favored based on thermal profiles shown in model soundings.
The cold front will start to (slowly) work its way through our
CWA Wednesday evening, dropping surface temperatures to near or
below freezing along and NW of I-71 before daybreak. This will
lead to a gradual transition of rain to freezing rain to sleet
from NW to SE overnight.

The one interesting item to note here is that models have begun
to show a similar trend in a southeastward shift on where the
maximum areas of freezing rain accumulation will occur. Model
soundings Wednesday night into Thursday morning do seem to favor
freezing rain during the initial transition for a several hour
period, but then transition to profiles that seem to favor more
sleet than freezing rain with the wintry-mix. What this means is
that we are slowly beginning to see a downward trend in freezing
rain accumulation for locations along and northwest of I-71 due
to increased sleet potential. However, slight errors in these
model soundings (even by 1-2 degrees) can significantly alter
p-types and thus accumulation potential, so this is something to
always be mindful of. Regardless, the morning commute will shape
up to be fairly messy for the I-71 corridor and locations NW as
a wintry-mix continues into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front should
be southeast of our area by Thursday morning with colder air
continuing to advect southeast across our area in the low
levels. A secondary wave riding northeast along the front will
lead to a renewed surge of moisture up into our area through the
day on Thursday with widespread pcpn then continuing into
Thursday evening before beginning to taper off from the
northwest later Thursday night into Friday morning.

In the CAA, temperatures will fall through the day on Thursday. By
daybreak Thursday, pcpn is expected to be mainly all snow to the
north of I-70 with a transition zone to sleet and freezing rain
along the I-71 corridor, and all rain across our southeast. As we
head through the day, this transition zone will shift southeast
through the rest of our area with an eventual changeover to all snow
Thursday into Thursday evening. The heaviest snow amounts will be
across our northwest where the pcpn will be all snow for the longest
period of time. For areas to the north of I-70, 8-12 inches of snow
will be possible, along with some light ice accumulations. Snow and
ice amounts become more problematic in the transition zone and
points to the southeast as forecast soundings are hinting at the
potential for an extended period of sleet mixing in. This would cut
down on both snow amounts and ice accretions for areas along and
southeast of I-71. Will make some slight downward adjustments to our
ice accumulations but for now only make some minor tweaks to
expected snowfall amounts. Will expand the current Winter Storm
Warning a bit farther south, but given some of the continued ptype
uncertainty, plan on hanging on to the Winter Storm Watch for the
rest of our forecast area.

With a tightening pressure gradient, northerly winds will increase
during the day on Thursday with some gusts to around 30 mph or so
possible for areas along and northwest of I-71. This will lead to
the possibility for some blowing snow and also some concern for tree
and power line damage given the heavy, wet snow and ice potential.
Gusty winds will continue into Thursday evening before gradually
decreasing somewhat overnight Thursday. Cold high pressure will
build into the region Friday into Saturday with highs both day
mostly in the teens and 20s. With mostly clear skies, light winds
and some snow on the ground, lows Friday night into Saturday morning
will likely dip below zero. These colder temperatures will be a
concern if we do end up with some power outages.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:55 pm Sleet is better then the ice, but it's still going to be a *itch to remove lol

Indeed with the cold temperatures Saturday, going to need a pick axe

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:51 pm A lot of talk about this storm around the office. I think for those snow lovers in the Cincy area this is setting up to be great disappointment. Everyone is going to be looking jealously towards Indy...

Not looking forward to the sleet fest.

We expect disappointment with snow already. Just like the Bengals, but hey it's a new year! I'm putting faith in the GFS, but I also expect a bust.

ILN added a handful of counties to the Winter Storm Warning.

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:55 pm Sleet is better then the ice, but it's still going to be a *itch to remove lol

Indeed with the cold temperatures Saturday, going to need a pick axe

I’m just going to get out a blowtorch!

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:15 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:55 pm Sleet is better then the ice, but it's still going to be a *itch to remove lol

Indeed with the cold temperatures Saturday, going to need a pick axe

I’m just going to get out a blowtorch!

I have one that I use to burn weeds in pavement or gravel. Would work on ice too!

ILN doesn’t seem too impressed as I read it.

Expecting the gfs to come further north with this run. The thermals on the nam just promotes a shift in the low pressure. If there is not a change to the gfs we have a fight on our hands.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:11 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:51 pm A lot of talk about this storm around the office. I think for those snow lovers in the Cincy area this is setting up to be great disappointment. Everyone is going to be looking jealously towards Indy...

Not looking forward to the sleet fest.

We expect disappointment with snow already. Just like the Bengals, but hey it's a new year! I'm putting faith in the GFS, but I also expect a bust.

If the Bengals can make it to the SuperBowl maybe metro Cincinnati can get more than 3-4 inches of snow in one go...