Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:30 pm 18Z GFS keeping it interesting late next week.

Les does the southeast ridge get beaten down enough by the first system is important as well. Especially this time of year as the southeast can send the warmth quickly into the area but if its beaten down some and the system behind it is moving in rather quickly the better chances for winter weather

Here's the illustration to clearly show your post Tim.

GFS - Flatter ridge less amplified pattern
Euro - More of a dig, more amplified pattern, stronger ridge

Which is correct?

Thanks Les and that really shows a great picture

Dry slot moving in so the rain will shut off shortly here, thank good ness. Need to get the garbage out lol

Don't know if it's right but we end Feb on a cold note per the 18Z GFS. Some pretty chilly air still showing up behind the possible winter storm late next week. Highs in the 20s, lows in the 10 to 15 degree range type stuff.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:46 pm Don't know if it's right but we end Feb on a cold note per the 18Z GFS. Some pretty chilly air still showing up behind the possible winter storm late next week. Highs in the 20s, lows in the 10 to 15 degree range type stuff.

Les if those high pressure events turn out to be 1045 or 1050 I would no doubt expect a cold shot plus it looks like the pna may go a little more positive during that period which can only help bring down some of the colder air in western and central Canada. They are so far above normal for snow depth this time of year and makes it easy to get rather cold

I just got an alert from my weather station near Ripley saying we just exceeded 2” out there today.

MJO is in Phase 3 now solidly and on the move as of 2/15 per the Aussies. How quickly does it go to 4 may also play a role... ie Euro or GFS's current solutions. Ensemble guidance to me has the EPS showing not as strong of a ridge as the Operational Euro, while the GEFS backs up the OP GFS. Like Bgoney said earlier, you can make a case here for either solution. We will just have to wait and see how early next week pans out to have a better handle on the next wave. Where is the frontal boundary going to stall?

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:46 pm Don't know if it's right but we end Feb on a cold note per the 18Z GFS. Some pretty chilly air still showing up behind the possible winter storm late next week. Highs in the 20s, lows in the 10 to 15 degree range type stuff.

Les if those high pressure events turn out to be 1045 or 1050 I would no doubt expect a cold shot plus it looks like the pna may go a little more positive during that period which can only help bring down some of the colder air in western and central Canada. They are so far above normal for snow depth this time of year and makes it easy to get rather cold

GEFS / EPS both show a nice -EPO ridge in the extended range up across Eastern AK and Western Canada, so we should have a good cold air source available. Can the SE ridge relax enough to get it in here is the question? Weak PNA ridging would help and I see it spiking towards late month before falling in early March. It's a Pacific driven pattern with the AO and NAO staying positive. I don't think it stays long, so we got 1 to 2 weeks to may hay then it's done. Phase 4 is coming...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:51 pm MJO is in Phase 3 now solidly and on the move as of 2/15 per the Aussies. How quickly does it go to 4 may also play a role... ie Euro or GFS's current solutions. Ensemble guidance to me has the EPS showing not as strong of a ridge as the Operational Euro, while the GEFS backs up the OP GFS. Like Bgoney said earlier, you can make a case here for either solution. We will just have to wait and see how early next week pans out to have a better handle on the next wave. Where is the frontal boundary going to stall?

Les I saw that quick movement today but starting to see models loop it back around so instead of heading to 4 it heads back towards 2 before once again heading towards 4.. This happen in Dec with phase 7 when it look like it was towards phase 8 but looped it back towards 6 before it headed once again to 8. This could be the trend this season. Also near the end of the month it looks like the AO and NAO may be more towards neutral after being rather positive for some period of time. I still believe once we hit mid-March that a flip to spring is underway and if we get to phase 4 during that time then I believe then you can kiss winter weather good-bye.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:32 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:08 pm Will be checking my gauge somewhat later as I plan to bring it inside whenever the changeover boundary gets more near Darke Co.

I know its a bit over a week from now but what are models showing for Sat Feb 26th? My dad has a 2nd time rescheduled "appt" with his sister to take care of some business in Indiana.

Thurs and Fri is the question mark. GFS says winter storm Euro says all rain Dry and cold for Sat currently.

Thank you, bro!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:43 pm Dry slot moving in so the rain will shut off shortly here, thank good ness. Need to get the garbage out lol

Same here as the backside of the plain rain has now exited Darke Co.

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

There is a rogue blob of heavy rain headed your way Les

Sawdoggie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:51 pm I just got an alert from my weather station near Ripley saying we just exceeded 2” out there today.

1.58 down here by the river in Ripley

I know not much is going to happen snow wise tonight, but I curious if we are supposed to get some flakes or a flash freeze. Trying to figure out if I am working early tomorrow. lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:19 pm There is a rogue blob of heavy rain headed your way Les

Yep! Glad I acted when I did! It struck after I came inside and was eating dinner. Up to 2.34" now. Front has passed. Down to 51 from an overnight high of 59 set this morning at 4:48am. Dew down to 48.

Drottlawn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:58 pm I know not much is going to happen snow wise tonight, but I curious if we are supposed to get some flakes or a flash freeze. Trying to figure out if I am working early tomorrow. lol

Thinking that the wind should help a lot of areas dry out but I wouldn't rule out a slick spot or two in the morning that either doesn't drain well or is protected from the wind.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:51 pm MJO is in Phase 3 now solidly and on the move as of 2/15 per the Aussies. How quickly does it go to 4 may also play a role... ie Euro or GFS's current solutions. Ensemble guidance to me has the EPS showing not as strong of a ridge as the Operational Euro, while the GEFS backs up the OP GFS. Like Bgoney said earlier, you can make a case here for either solution. We will just have to wait and see how early next week pans out to have a better handle on the next wave. Where is the frontal boundary going to stall?

Les I saw that quick movement today but starting to see models loop it back around so instead of heading to 4 it heads back towards 2 before once again heading towards 4.. This happen in Dec with phase 7 when it look like it was towards phase 8 but looped it back towards 6 before it headed once again to 8. This could be the trend this season. Also near the end of the month it looks like the AO and NAO may be more towards neutral after being rather positive for some period of time. I still believe once we hit mid-March that a flip to spring is underway and if we get to phase 4 during that time then I believe then you can kiss winter weather good-bye.

If that happens, perfect. The late Feb / early Mar call would pan out. Give us a few more chances then spring is here Week 2 or Week 3 of March. Sounds good.

49 now, I am watching the temp drop on my weather station. It's fast! Dew has dropped to 45.

Looks like the surface low is moving SE of I-71. 1000 MB still.

42 / 40 2.35" - event total CVG ended up with 2.21" a new daily rainfall record! Smashed the old one from 1976, which was only 1.02" Was anybody on here around back in 1910? A record setting 10.8" of snow fell back on this date.

18Z GEFS SLP plot for the Thurs event next week. This is valid for Thurs evening. The red numbers are the ensemble member's plot of where the surface low pressure will be. Note the northern cluster in KY. Those can be mixed or rainers like the Euro due to the strength of the SE ridge and warm nose so a Eastern TN cluster is better for us to get snow. Need to watch that ATTM, I see more model support for snow versus rain but that can easily change this far away. When I get back from Michigan ice fishing late Sunday, if we still have a shot at this, it could be our next thread starting event. Nice shape banana high to... nice winter storm set up.

29 degrees here. Light rain and North wind

The flakes are flying here in Burlington. Unfortunately they are about 20 hours too late.

Light covering of snow on everything. Salt trucks are out.

My gauge picked up 1.30" for Thurs.

Coating of white gold on my property.

Currently 27 here in G'ville and progged for around 17 on Fri morning.