Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:28 am**

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store. No doubt the models have trended more north and west over the past couple of days. My guess is they will sort of end up in between what they showed a few days ago compared to the last day or so. The main reason I believe is the high over the northeast USA may not be too strong to hold back a decent trough building in from Canada plus the heights out west should also support a little more eastward location.. Moisture is not the problem at all but where does the front finally stall later Friday and early Saturday. Will this front wobble more back towards the northwest after that or will it try and stall or will it end up closer to us. We may get the first push of moisture Friday night and early Saturday then we need to see where the front lines up. Going to somebody from the central plains to the Ohio Valley that ends up with probably over 6 inches but where is still to early to figure out. I would love a general 1-2 inches from Saturday-Wednesday so I will put that order in this afternoon.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:33 am**

12Z NAM is dry for 90% of AV Country through Sat evening.

I like the idea of the flooding rains in excess of 6" to fall from N MO / S IA thru Northern ILL into NW IN and Southern Mich. In time that sinks towards the Indy area and perhaps a few of our NW counties. Rain chances will slowly increase by Sun and ramp up next week. This idea might be the way to go if the trends that we are seeing continue.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:45 am**

A little disturbance is spreading some clouds in the Dayton area currently. Not expecting any rainfall here though.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:18 pm**

Blue skies still here and 74. 72 as of 12pm at CVG. Another C of C Day in progress...

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:20 pm**

12z GFS holding serve. Higher chances to the West Fri and Sat and for us by Sunday. Cannot rule out a spotty storm before then.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:54 pm**

12Z GFS please be right for the 4th of July weekend. Please be right. A front clears us on the 2nd for a nice Holiday Weekend.

EDIT: Joe... this is what you were talking about.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:23 pm**

12z Euro is mainly dry thru the weekend minus a 10-20% shot of a storm. Very, very low chances. By Monday of next week, in the afternoon, chances begin to increase. I'd go about 40-50% coverage by then. Chances slowly increase each afternoon and evening after that, as the front continues to ever so slowly push in our direction. Finally by the Holiday Weekend which is Sat morning at Day 10 for the Euro,. the front might be trying to clear the area. A GFS like idea just 24 hours later. Some interesting developments today. too early to know of course if correct. Bottom line: A slow increase in rain chances I think is the way to go with likely action at some point next week for several days.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:04 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:54 pm 12Z GFS please be right for the 4th of July weekend. Please be right. A front clears us on the 2nd for a nice Holiday Weekend.

EDIT: Joe... this is what you were talking about.

Les, it sure was! Not to be pessimistic but the GFS showed a nice weekend (last weekend) for camping a week and a half prior and we seen what happened to that. As long as we're in this progressive pattern it's a coin toss. Oh well, I'm going to keep my hopes up.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:31 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:23 pm 12z Euro is mainly dry thru the weekend minus a 10-20% shot of a storm. Very, very low chances. By Monday of next week, in the afternoon, chances begin to increase. I'd go about 40-50% coverage by then. Chances slowly increase each afternoon and evening after that, as the front continues to ever so slowly push in our direction. Finally by the Holiday Weekend which is Sat morning at Day 10 for the Euro,. the front might be trying to clear the area. A GFS like idea just 24 hours later. Some interesting developments today. too early to know of course if correct. Bottom line: A slow increase in rain chances I think is the way to go with likely action at some point next week for several days.

Looks good to me Les, that front is going nowhere fast

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:00 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:04 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:54 pm 12Z GFS please be right for the 4th of July weekend. Please be right. A front clears us on the 2nd for a nice Holiday Weekend.

EDIT: Joe... this is what you were talking about.
Les, it sure was! Not to be pessimistic but the GFS showed a nice weekend (last weekend) for camping a week and a half prior and we seen what happened to that. As long as we're in this progressive pattern it's a coin toss. Oh well, I'm going to keep my hopes up.

Same here, Joe! Saturday evening on 7/3 is my annual fireworks show. I know Roy, one of our other posters, has his big show that night too. Probably some others on here are doing the same?

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:04 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:31 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:23 pm 12z Euro is mainly dry thru the weekend minus a 10-20% shot of a storm. Very, very low chances. By Monday of next week, in the afternoon, chances begin to increase. I'd go about 40-50% coverage by then. Chances slowly increase each afternoon and evening after that, as the front continues to ever so slowly push in our direction. Finally by the Holiday Weekend which is Sat morning at Day 10 for the Euro,. the front might be trying to clear the area. A GFS like idea just 24 hours later. Some interesting developments today. too early to know of course if correct. Bottom line: A slow increase in rain chances I think is the way to go with likely action at some point next week for several days.
Looks good to me Les, that front is going nowhere fast

That ridge near or just off the East Coast means business! If the tropics do not develop anything in the Gulf, I could see a faster frontal passage like the GFS occurring. But if the tropics do fire up something, a slower progression like the Euro is likely if not even slower then what we saw this afternoon. Due to my fireworks show around the 4th, I am always nervous this time of year with t-storm coverage as most pyros are.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:09 pm**

Some cloud cover this afternoon killed my call for high temps today. (Not complaining at all!) I was thinking U70s, maybe 80 for CVG. IMBY, all I could muster was a high of 75 and for CVG, 76 per the 5pm climate report. Too bad we'll be in the mid 80s or better for tomorrow. The humidity still shouldn't be too bad as that starts to come back into pay Thurs night and / or Friday.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm**

Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:40 pm**

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.

GFS has been my go to model for a while but the Euro might be doing better with the upcoming pattern as far as it being slower with the front vs the GFS. Make sense with the ridge near the East Coast

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:48 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:40 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.
GFS has been my go to model for a while but the Euro might be doing better with the upcoming pattern as far as it being slower with the front vs the GFS. Make sense with the ridge near the East Coast

Thanks Les. I read the 4 or pages that i missed. Seemed like that was the discussion I read. Just want to not get my hopes to high on other models that seem to putting out more rain.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:19 pm**

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:40 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.
GFS has been my go to model for a while but the Euro might be doing better with the upcoming pattern as far as it being slower with the front vs the GFS. Make sense with the ridge near the East Coast
Thanks Les. I read the 4 or pages that i missed. Seemed like that was the discussion I read. Just want to not get my hopes to high on other models that seem to putting out more rain.

Absolutely agree JP! Just like in the winter when I have my snow goggles on and bust.

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 pm**

18Z GFS took a step towards the Euro for this weekend into next week. By the Holiday Weekend it still blows the front thru on Friday and we're good to go for that weekend. Again, too early to call. We'll see!

Posted: **Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:43 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:19 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:40 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.
GFS has been my go to model for a while but the Euro might be doing better with the upcoming pattern as far as it being slower with the front vs the GFS. Make sense with the ridge near the East Coast
Thanks Les. I read the 4 or pages that i missed. Seemed like that was the discussion I read. Just want to not get my hopes to high on other models that seem to putting out more rain.
Absolutely agree JP! Just like in the winter when I have my snow goggles on and bust.

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:10 am**

Don't see any significant changes overnight. Les' percentages through the weekend holding. Our weather weekend may be boring, but some of the qpf numbers in the midwest and to our NW are downright scary. A stalled front and cut-off upper level low combination is not a good scenario for someone in these areas

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:30 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.

Check out the past 7 day QPF % of normal map....you can definitely see the haves and have nots. Wow!

precip_7d_accum_per_ohio_2021062312.png

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:39 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:10 am Don't see any significant changes overnight. Les' percentages through the weekend holding. Our weather weekend may be boring, but some of the qpf numbers in the midwest and to our NW are downright scary. A stalled front and cut-off upper level low combination is not a good scenario for someone in these areas

I saw a NAM run yesterday that pegged an area over the Midwest with 20"!

Overdone of course but could someone in the Midwest get 10" or so out of it? I say yes.

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:45 am**

ILN has caught on... low POPS Fri - Weekend then likely POPS for next week. I can dig it. Last morning of the 50s for a while guys. Enjoy the last day of decent humidity and the 80s for highs.

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am**

Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!

EDIT: It's 113,

The highest temperature officially recorded in Canada is 45 °C (113 °F) on July 5, 1937 at Midale and at Yellow Grass, two small towns in southeastern Saskatchewan.

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:43 am**

Good Morning and one last beautiful day with the lower humidity. Les the chances for rain over the weekend is looking less an less but I still believe late Friday or early Saturday as we get that push of moisture some folks especially nw of I-71 could see some rain before the front will move back a little further northwest. Still hope we can get that 1-2 inches Saturday-Wednesday and that everyone gets involved. My lawn is lush and even the growing part has slowed down with the lower humidity.

Posted: **Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:46 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!

This pattern is going to stick around a while. Stubborn winter blocking in summer

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Absolute Vorticity

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