Absolute Vorticity

Angelika wrote: ↑Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:33 pm When is the wind coming?

12-4 should be the peak time for 40-60mph gusts.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0267.htmlNew MD, possible tornado watch

Severe thunderstorm warning for me.

Have had some thunder and lightning along with the downpours.

Currently 59 here in Greenville.

1842 OHATCHEE CALHOUN AL 3379 8602 *** 5 FATAL *** SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO PROPERTY AND HOMES IN THE CITY OF OHATCHEE. CORONER CONFIRMS 5 FATALITIES. UPDATE FOR FATALITY COUNT. (BMX)

Prayers and thoughts with those who have been affected and with families of the dead and with the injured and their families.

2208 UNK 2 ENE RAPIDS SIMPSON KY 3668 8643 REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE AREA OF LEO BINION RD. AND PLEASANT HILL RD. (LMK)

2214 UNK 3 SE CLAYPOOL ALLEN KY 3687 8622 REPORT WITH PHOTO OF A TREE DOWN ON A HOME IN NORTHWESTERN ALLEN COUNTY. (LMK)

2229 UNK 2 W PARK CITY EDMONSON KY 3709 8609 REPORTS OF CEDAR TREES DOWN ACROSS 31W BLOCKING THREE LANES AND REPORTS OF TWO BUILDINGS DAMAGED. (LMK)

2242 UNK 2 E KESSINGER HART KY 3730 8594 ROOF LOSS ON A BARN NEAR MT. BEULAH. TIME BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. (LMK)

2318 100 4 NNE BOSTON NELSON KY 3783 8563 QUARTER SIZED HAIL FROM NWS EMPLOYEE FAMILY MEMBER ON HURRICANE HILLS LAKE. (LMK)

2320 100 DEATSVILLE NELSON KY 3790 8556 PHOTO OF ESTIMATE 1 INCH HAIL OUT OF DEATSVILLE. (LMK)

2323 UNK COXS CREEK NELSON KY 3790 8547 LARGE TREE BRANCH CAME DOWN AND DESTROYED A TRAMPOLINE. TIME BASED ON RADAR DATA. (LMK)

2338 150 3 NW ELK CREEK SPENCER KY 3813 8540 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON BATTERY LN. (LMK)

2344 100 DARMSTADT VANDERBURGH IN 3809 8758 (PAH)

2345 100 1 ENE SIMPSONVILLE SHELBY KY 3822 8534 PHOTO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR SIMPSONVILLE. (LMK)

2350 175 1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE SHELBY KY 3820 8535 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 750 PM EDT AT CULVERS NEAR THE OUTLET SHOPPES OF THE BLUEGRASS ALONG I-64. (LMK)

0018 125 SANDERS CARROLL KY 3866 8495 TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

0030 61 GRACEY CHRISTIAN KY 3688 8767 MEASURED BY TWO SEPARATE TRAINED SPOTTERS ON HIGHWAY 68-80 AT THE TRIGG-CHRISTIAN COUNTY LINE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (PAH)

0048 100 5 ESE FREEDOM OWEN IN 3919 8678 HAIL LASTED 1 MINUTE. (IND)

0058 100 3 S PARAGON MORGAN IN 3935 8656 (IND)

0143 UNK BEAVER DAM OHIO KY 3741 8688 ONE SNAPPED POWER POLE IN THE BEAVER DAM AREA. (LMK)

0215 UNK 4 E CLARKSON GRAYSON KY 3748 8615 ROOF OFF HOUSE AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT. ATTACHED GARAGE DAMAGED. OUTBUILDING DAMAGED. OLD BARN DAMAGED. POWER LINES AND POLES DOWN. (LMK)

0216 UNK 4 S BIG CLIFTY GRAYSON KY 3750 8615 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. (LMK)

0218 UNK 5 NW MILLERSTOWN GRAYSON KY 3748 8613 NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES IN THE MILLERSTOWN AREA OF GRAYSON COUNTY. (LMK)

0230 UNK 2 NW LEITCHFIELD GRAYSON KY 3750 8631 LARGE TREE ON HOUSE ABOUT ALONG HIGHWAY 737 WEST OF LEITCHFIELD. (LMK)

All the storms went north of me. The wind is loud. Power flickered once so far but still on.

Models appear to have been grossly wrong on strength of LP once again , but thats a good thing in this case. Lowest I saw was 994mb. For the most.part kept the winds under 58mph. Would have been a different story if the mid 980s were to have been correct.

Videos I've seen so far of Alabama damage look to be in the EF 3 range.

I was under 2 t-storm warnings overnight but never lost power.

Never lost power here either - highest gust I had was 48 mph.

28 mph was my highest gust

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:22 am Models appear to have been grossly wrong on strength of LP once again , but thats a good thing in this case. Lowest I saw was 994mb. For the most.part kept the winds under 58mph. Would have been a different story if the mid 980s were to have been correct.

Videos I've seen so far of Alabama damage look to be in the EF 3 range.

Great Post and again we keep seeing this with the models. This also kept the most severe weather to the south and had plenty around here in Greenville and the forecast was around 1/2 inch of rain and ended up with around 2 inches. Not sure about the range for the tornado's in Alabama but from some of the damage EF3 range seems likely and maybe even EF4 in some instances.

Peak wind gust here was 40 mph. CVG I believe had 45 mph.

Lost two shingles here. Also there’s a trash can lid in the yard from who knows where

Some area gusts posted by Scotty D

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:07 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:22 am Models appear to have been grossly wrong on strength of LP once again , but thats a good thing in this case. Lowest I saw was 994mb. For the most.part kept the winds under 58mph. Would have been a different story if the mid 980s were to have been correct.

Videos I've seen so far of Alabama damage look to be in the EF 3 range.

Great Post and again we keep seeing this with the models. This also kept the most severe weather to the south and had plenty around here in Greenville and the forecast was around 1/2 inch of rain and ended up with around 2 inches. Not sure about the range for the tornado's in Alabama but from some of the damage EF3 range seems likely and maybe even EF4 in some instances.

The EUs Thursday 0z run had a 981mb low in Central Indiana, that is just so bad, no its horrible, at less than 24hrs until event. I don't know what they did to the EU, but if they did right with the upgrades to the GFS going forward , it should have no problem getting the same respect that the EU once enjoyed

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:56 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:07 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:22 am Models appear to have been grossly wrong on strength of LP once again , but thats a good thing in this case. Lowest I saw was 994mb. For the most.part kept the winds under 58mph. Would have been a different story if the mid 980s were to have been correct.

Videos I've seen so far of Alabama damage look to be in the EF 3 range.

Great Post and again we keep seeing this with the models. This also kept the most severe weather to the south and had plenty around here in Greenville and the forecast was around 1/2 inch of rain and ended up with around 2 inches. Not sure about the range for the tornado's in Alabama but from some of the damage EF3 range seems likely and maybe even EF4 in some instances.

The EUs Thursday 0z run had a 981mb low in Central Indiana, that is just so bad, no its horrible, at less than 24hrs until event. I don't know what they did to the EU, but if they did right with the upgrades to the GFS going forward , it should have no problem getting the same respect that the EU once enjoyed

I agree and this makes it hard for folks trying to forecast. I know I used the model and how it showed strong getting strong in a short period of time and this is a key imo of how you can get a decent severe outbreak. Yes the best chance was further south but I thought that the severe would be pulled northward with the increase of the storm. In the end its my problem that the forecast did not work out and something you must look at going forward.

Got right around 2 inches here in Greenville but just north of there the reports of over 5 inches is common plus several roads closed and they are looking at damage to see if a tornado or two caused the damage.

Some top gusts I came across at WHIO7 ...

Kettering: 63 MPH

Celina: 61 MPH

Dayton: 60 MPH

Xenia: 60 MPH

WPAFB: 59 MPH

Wilmington: 56 MPH

Union City: 54 MPH

Wapakoneta: 53 MPH

Springfield: 53 MPH

Oxford: 52 MPH

Richmond, Ind.: 51 MPH

Lebanon: 51 MPH

New Vienna: 48 MPH

Hamilton: 46 MPH

Urbana: 45 MPH

My rainfall was 0.35" total. Cells were just zooming by too quickly to accumulate a lot. Rainfall rates were impressive, but only lasted a couple minutes at a time.

Thankfully all is okay here in Greenville in my immediate 'hood area and prayerfully elsewhere in the city and around Darke Co, too. Thankfully didn't find any damage reports here in the Miami Valley at the SPC site. I didn't lose any power either for which am grateful.

Not sure of the top gust measured here in my area. Slept pretty well but was something hearing that stiff roar at times of the wind.

Put my curbside cart out at 7 o'clock and the crew took care of it at 8 o'clock.

A neighbor two houses down opposite side of the street had their recyclables tub out at the curb and so will clean up some scattered trash a bit later in my front yard. Also some sticks from a next door neighbor's tree in the back yard.

Didn't have my gauge out due to concern of the high winds so don't have a rainfall measurement.

Currently 43 and looking at around 57 for later.

Saw earlier on TWC some footage from near Birmingham, AL of a church team of volunteers helping clear out debris in a 'hood.

I had a wx friend named Perry, who after a courageous battle with cancer, passed away 2 or 3 years ago. He was a native of and resided much of his life in Newnan, GA, which also had some tornado damage.

I heard there were 18 tornadoes in Alabama.

Day 2 Saturday ...Marginal risk for some parts of the Tri-state.

55 here right now and 60 will be tough. Tomorrow is a beauty before rain / storms come in Sat night into Sunday. A cool Monday then we moderate and get hit again with rain / storms Tues night into Wed. Cold Shot to start April. Then we moderate Easter Weekend.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:55 pm Les: any hail? That core went right over Burlington.

That fell a bit to my West. Wasn't bad here.