Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:25 pm**

Heaviest snow of my winter happening now. Road covered in ten minutes. Blowing and snowing hard.

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:27 pm**

The Rams/Phillies game is a classic

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:45 pm**

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:25 pm Heaviest snow of my winter happening now. Road covered in ten minutes. Blowing and snowing hard.

Awesome! Enjoy it Matt!

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:46 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:27 pm The Rams/Phillies game is a classic

Sure is! Rams D needs a 3 and out or it might be over.

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 11:19 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 11:15 am There is a chance that after the Southern US snow event early next week occurs, there will be some sort of snow cover on the ground in portions of all 48 CONUS states. That does not happen often.

Medium chance in my former stomping grounds of Roanoke Rapids and Raleigh, NC.

https://images.wral.com/asset/weather/2 ... =640&h=360

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 11:32 pm**

snowbo wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:59 pm The Snow Squall Warning issued earlier this afternoon for Miami County blew up my phone like an Amber Alert. Very loud. Had a nice little squall but only a dusting.

Had a dusting here in Greenville, too.

Posted: **Sun Jan 19, 2025 11:38 pm**

Both CVG / CMH got to 30 and DAY 29 today.

Currently 5 here in G'ville and progged for -2 on Mon morning.

M.L.King Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Glad the Inauguration has been moved inside and the first time in 40 years (Jan. 1985) since former Pres. Ronald Reagan's second Inauguration.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:28 am**

Good morning all! 3 degrees currently here and at CVG. I have no changes to the forecast. Cold thru Wed then we moderate and get wet this weekend. Oh.. and for this Friday, I will keep a low POP in for light snow but currently it isn't looking like a big deal at all. Low confidence forecast for next week and beyond. We'll have to take a closer look at it this week.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:52 am**

IMG_3074.png

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 5:02 am**

2-4” for the Gulf coast

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Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 5:39 am**

CVG is down to 2 degrees now. It's very strange seeing some areas across the Deep South potentially seeing more snow on the season right now then say Bismarck or Chicago, portions of Iowa, etc.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 5:49 am**

It’s not surprising, but Still amazed how the MJO phases have fit perfectly with how the winter has unfolded.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:08 am**

Per the Aussies, as of 1/17, we were in phase 1, about ready to cross into Phase 2. We are in Phase 2 right now (I am assuming that) which makes since why we continue to run cold. Phase 3 is next and it isn't a big time cold pattern but it is not a torch either. We'll call it more seasonal or normal temps should occur for the time of year. The bulk of the MJO modeling after phase 3, takes it back into the neutral circle. A few do go into the warmer phases (4-6) but it is at a weak amplitude. If we get the outcome of COD, then Feb to me while milder then January , should not be a torch with 60s and t-storms. Wintry chances would still be possible. We'll have to see how things go with this but having more seasonal temps versus suppression and bitter cold should open the door to more moisture. Whether its mainly rain or snow, I don't yet know. Too early.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:19 am**

Agree Les, . All this talk of the (stretched)PV causing the cold outbreak shouldn’t be the main headline. It should be why is it stretched, which goes back to the phases and intensity of the MJO and its influence on large high pressure in the atmosphere in all the right places to actually cause the PV to stretch

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:25 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:19 am Agree Les, . All this talk of the (stretched)PV causing the cold outbreak shouldn’t be the main headline. It should be why is it stretched, which goes back to the phases and intensity of the MJO and its influence on large high pressure in the atmosphere in all the right places to actually cause the PV to stretch

Exactly. You're spot on! I keep hearing SSW talk and that isn't it at all. We should be seeing a strong PV even with a La Nina since it is central Pacific based, and we also have a Westerly QBO. Everything has certainly been MJO driven. We were cold in December then went warm with the warmer phases. Now January has been cold and snowy due to a tour thru the colder phases. If we get the COD again, then my thoughts are to give us one more tour thru the cold phases in late Feb and early March. Then it'll be a wrap and spring will come. We'll see, but these last couple of posts are my thinking for the rest of winter assuming the MJO plays ball. We only need 2-3" to get to normal then anything more then 3" at CVG would give us an above normal season. For the first half of winter, it's been really good in the OV in my opinion.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:03 am**

Good Morning and a nice cold start to the week and you know its cold in northern Wisconsin when they shut down schools for the next 2 days. Back to the weather locally. First the CMC did the best by far with the weekend event and why the other two had problems and must be the arctic air. The only part of my forecast I missed was the final total which I thought 1-2 inches locally and CVG only got 0.8. This was no doubt a pattern that some models failed to see and again this was true polar air and not just your typical western Canadian cold we get quite often.

A few items this week and first the cold and yes a nice stretch of well below temps and probably will put us in the top ten coldest January's before the month ends. A few pieces of energy this week and again small pieces but yes can produce a a period or two of light snow. The bigger system in the GOM is wild to see and that happens very seldom.

I expected by the end of the week a bigger push of warm air to flow over the surface cold and though I really thought this would be in the Thursday/Friday period it looks more like the Saturday/Sunday period. Watching this weekend for the next best shot of a decent snow. After this storm along the Gulf moves away models should start to see the return flow for the weekend.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:09 am**

We are now tied again for the coldest morning reading of the winter. 1 currently at CVG.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:17 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:03 am Good Morning and a nice cold start to the week and you know its cold in northern Wisconsin when they shut down schools for the next 2 days. Back to the weather locally. First the CMC did the best by far with the weekend event and why the other two had problems and must be the arctic air. The only part of my forecast I missed was the final total which I thought 1-2 inches locally and CVG only got 0.8. This was no doubt a pattern that some models failed to see and again this was true polar air and not just your typical western Canadian cold we get quite often.

A few items this week and first the cold and yes a nice stretch of well below temps and probably will put us in the top ten coldest January's before the month ends. A few pieces of energy this week and again small pieces but yes can produce a a period or two of light snow. The bigger system in the GOM is wild to see and that happens very seldom.

I expected by the end of the week a bigger push of warm air to flow over the surface cold and though I really thought this would be in the Thursday/Friday period it looks more like the Saturday/Sunday period. Watching this weekend for the next best shot of a decent snow. After this storm along the Gulf moves away models should start to see the return flow for the weekend.

I've been going with mainly rain for this weekend but I have seen a model run or two that tries to keep some of the precip in the form of snow. Can the moisture race in fast enough while we still have some cold air in place before it gets scoured out? We'll have to give it a couple more days and see how this evolves. Agreed Tim that we have to wait for the Southern US winter storm to get out of the way first.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:29 am**

I agree Les and give it a few more days. Yesterday was one of the few days where I tuned out the weather and just watched football. Of course that was not going to last long. I still have about an average of 2 inches on the ground and yes some areas bare and others around 4 inches in spots. When you get and overriding event like we should have this weekend its one where yes the ground temps can still be below 32 and that is when you can get some frz/rain. I believe locally we are on the border but again not much in the way of snow cover to the southwest so I can see where models may show rain this far out but hopefully the gfs and euro figure this one out and just a terrible performance last week.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:40 am**

The MJO and I agree it has helped in forecasting this season. Why and I believe we are really in a neutral ENSO state though some call it a very weak La Nina and maybe depending if you follow the definition to a tee. My guess over the past 20 years very few were a neutral ENSO and when this happens I can see where we move through phases in a more normal 45 day period Sure a few times it slows down in a phase but then moves on. What will next season be and no ideal but will continue over the next several years to see what happens when we are in a neutral ENSO.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:44 am**

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Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:45 am**

Temp is 5 and windchill is -7 , My dogs had there big puffy coats on to go outside yep they hated me for that

, they were back inside real quick, They have there sweaters on and are under blankets

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:46 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:44 amIMG_3076.gif

As long as temps can remain near normal, we should get some snow chances, esp 1st half of the month then again late. I like seeing above normal precip just hope it isn't all in the form of rain.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:51 am**

Rocking a -1.3 in Oxford. Can’t remember the last time we were below 0.

Posted: **Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:09 am**

Looks like 1 at CVG. I think Wed morning we all go below zero.

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