Absolute Vorticity

Both the EURO and GFS are keeping rain showers on Tuesday through Thursday. The GFS wants to throw heavy rain in the forecast. The EURO is just regular rain showers. I am going with rain showers possibly heavy at times.

-2 this morning

CVG / CMH both got to 24 and DAY 25 today.

CPC Nino update , all regions are weakening from previous readings and subsurface coooler waters continue to build

I guess technically there was a SSW of the polar vortex but it was the briefest and weakest one I’ve ever seen . An “SSW lite” if you will . Not sure if anything comes of it since it is recovering rapidly. My guess is it’s not going to run the pattern and I’m still in the camp that a return to a good lengthy cold period depends on the MJO progressing through the cold phases

Comparison of our current cold period (CVG) that started on the 13th with other years from the 13th to 21
Average temp mean

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 12:57 pm Comparison of our current cold period (CVG) that started on the 13th with other years from the 13th to 21
Average temp mean




IMG_1245.jpeg

Getting in the top 5 is not bad

Long term and though we know wet and mild this week what happens once you get into the weekend and next week. Temps should still be milder than normal but not by much as we will be on the western edge of some colder air as a trough develops off to the east. Can we get snow in this pattern and yes but mainly a few snow showers or flurries is about all. Do we have another cold spell coming in February and I believe we do though I believe this time the meat of the cold is towards the east coast and not the central plains like this past spell. The STJ and will it be in a different position that will help us in getting more storminess with the cold air around is still something that hopefully is answered over the next week or so.

Yea I’d say a 1036 ridge off the SE coast is going to open up the GOM

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:03 pm Long term and though we know wet and mild this week what happens once you get into the weekend and next week. Temps should still be milder than normal but not by much as we will be on the western edge of some colder air as a trough develops off to the east. Can we get snow in this pattern and yes but mainly a few snow showers or flurries is about all. Do we have another cold spell coming in February and I believe we do though I believe this time the meat of the cold is towards the east coast and not the central plains like this past spell. The STJ and will it be in a different position that will help us in getting more storminess with the cold air around is still something that hopefully is answered over the next week or so.

I like the set up we are heading into. This, what I believe to be, brief warm up we are heading into looks a lot like the pattern we had in December, but much shorter in duration. This ridge giving us the warmth looks like it's going to retrograde into Canada and Greenland one again giving us a ridge over the top. It looks to me almost exactly like what we just experienced. The question again is how long will the cold last? Hopefully it will have some staying power.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 8:00 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:03 pm Long term and though we know wet and mild this week what happens once you get into the weekend and next week. Temps should still be milder than normal but not by much as we will be on the western edge of some colder air as a trough develops off to the east. Can we get snow in this pattern and yes but mainly a few snow showers or flurries is about all. Do we have another cold spell coming in February and I believe we do though I believe this time the meat of the cold is towards the east coast and not the central plains like this past spell. The STJ and will it be in a different position that will help us in getting more storminess with the cold air around is still something that hopefully is answered over the next week or so.

I like the set up we are heading into. This, what I believe to be, brief warm up we are heading into looks a lot like the pattern we had in December, but much shorter in duration. This ridge giving us the warmth looks like it's going to retrograde into Canada and Greenland one again giving us a ridge over the top. It looks to me almost exactly like what we just experienced. The question again is how long will the cold last? Hopefully it will have some staying power.

Thanks Doug. I'm looking at our annual snowshoeing trip to Michigan in February and I'm looking for a Winter pattern. We are flexible but I need to see some confirmation from the models that we'll see Winter like weather up there.

CVG reached 42, DAY 41 and CMH 38 today.

How much rain are we looking at over the next few days?

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 6:27 am How much rain are we looking at over the next few days?

Good Morning Lisa. Rainfall over the next say 3-4 days should be in the 1-3 inch range but if you get the heaviest bands with each wave over 3 inches is possible. Like Bgoney mentioned yesterday with the 1036 high over the Atlantic the flow from the GOM is nice and heading this way. Would love to see this in April instead of January and yes will see some low lying flooding and of course with the ground starting to thaw you get those nice puddles in the yard.

Agree with dce that upcoming pattern is what we saw in December/early January, the dreaded “marginal airmass pattern “ which the OV doesn’t usually do well for significant winter events. Looks for now to last well into the first week of February. After that , imo still depends on a favorable MJO forcing to correct the EPO region 500mb pattern

Temp at 34 here with rain. Sidewalks are slick in spots esp those not shoveled as the snow prints from previous walkers are being stubborn to melt.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 8:07 am Agree with dce that upcoming pattern is what we saw in December/early January, the dreaded “marginal airmass pattern “ which the OV doesn’t usually do well for significant winter events. Looks for now to last well into the first week of February. After that , imo still depends on a favorable MJO forcing to correct the EPO region 500mb pattern

Agreed with you both. By week two of Feb the clock will be running to finish Met Winter so if we are going to cash in, it'd have to be sooner rather than later in Feb.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 8:19 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 8:07 am Agree with dce that upcoming pattern is what we saw in December/early January, the dreaded “marginal airmass pattern “ which the OV doesn’t usually do well for significant winter events. Looks for now to last well into the first week of February. After that , imo still depends on a favorable MJO forcing to correct the EPO region 500mb pattern

Agreed with you both. By week two of Feb the clock will be running to finish Met Winter so if we are going to cash in, it'd have to be sooner rather than later in Feb.

The good thing is the MJO seems to keep trucking along stronger than the models keep forecasting which will hopefully continue on into the colder phases. As always, we shall see.

I have not checked any models in a few days but from what I checked on this morning... sometime in the 27-28th timeframe there are some signals of a rain to snow or some kind of slop type of system as we get a brief cool snap in between warm up's. Otherwise, the pattern to me looks mild and wet. Mud season in other words.

From early this morning radar and clouds in the maritimes showing Current MJO wave in 5/6 phases

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 1:34 pmIMG_1259.png

The northern rockies and northern plains above normal while the remainder of the country near normal. Big change from last week

Currently 40 here in G'ville and just shy 1 degree of today's ILN progged high up this way.

Good Afternoon and what you see is what you get this week. Waves of rain over the next 5 days and maybe mix in a little snow this weekend but nothing major. We are trying to move back into the December pattern but not there yet. That pattern looks to come into play next week and the weather becomes rather tame with temps a few degrees above normal and most of the precip south and east of us like we saw in December. Than do we have another bout with the PV and my guess is yes but expecting a more easterly placement which is more common in February . If and when this happens we would be on the western edge but that will work fine as we would also be in a better spot for precip. Again I would say this weekend or early next week longer term models will start to see the changes in regards to the PV. Waiting to wash the car until we get through this weekend though I have it outside trying to get some of the junk off. Still 1-3 inches looks like a good total for the week and flooding is a concern I am not sure how bad this round will be.