Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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What's funny is that -8 for last year (2022) fell about one year ago today when we had that brief blizzard and cold snap.
I am so glad I was working from home for that storm LOL January and Feb will be interesting now that I am commuting again.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 10:27 amWhat's funny is that -8 for last year (2022) fell about one year ago today when we had that brief blizzard and cold snap.
Hey Tim, looking at the GFS (for example) to see any good snow possibilities for the future still look bleak, for the most part systems look to skirt south of us and spokes of energy continue to pin wheel south from Canada keeping us in no mans land with this dry static electricity pattern. Loltpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 8:47 am Good Morning and another nice day for shoppers. First day of winter so 90 days or so until spring. So far this fall season we have seen the coldest compared to normal over eastern Europe then it switched for a short time to western Europe and current cold is in eastern Asia over China. When these cold spells come they are really cold and one reason is because its so warm on our side of the planet. Some places in the upper mid-west and northern plains will probably end up 15 degrees or more above normal for December. Once again Mother Nature doing her balancing job. The good thing imo is the cold is not staying in one place for an extended period and will this continue around the globe and hit us in January. This is not counting on the SSW event if it were to occur.
What is funny is when you get a stronger El Nino much of China is usually very mild and it started that way early in the fall with record temps but it has switched and done a 180. The STJ and we talk about it quite often but the jet does not stop and heads around the world and so far with it being well south this has helped both Europe and Asia to get cold and stormy. Hopefully the STJ gets into its normal position during and El Nino and this hopefully will bring more storminess but having systems getting closer to together to merge and that is so important. That happened this past weekend and the only problem is we still had too much warm air around but the storm was able to bring a quick shot of cold to the east.
Hey Joe and hope everything is going well. The models will have trouble this season because of the divided jets streams. My guess some of the bigger systems may not even show up until about 3-5 days ahead of the storm. Getting the bigger storms we need the big difference in temps and of course at the moment that is not happening. Hopefully by next week models will at least show the colder air starting to arrivewinterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 10:41 amHey Tim, looking at the GFS (for example) to see any good snow possibilities for the future still look bleak, for the most part systems look to skirt south of us and spokes of energy continue to pin wheel south from Canada keeping us in no mans land with this dry static electricity pattern. Loltpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 8:47 am Good Morning and another nice day for shoppers. First day of winter so 90 days or so until spring. So far this fall season we have seen the coldest compared to normal over eastern Europe then it switched for a short time to western Europe and current cold is in eastern Asia over China. When these cold spells come they are really cold and one reason is because its so warm on our side of the planet. Some places in the upper mid-west and northern plains will probably end up 15 degrees or more above normal for December. Once again Mother Nature doing her balancing job. The good thing imo is the cold is not staying in one place for an extended period and will this continue around the globe and hit us in January. This is not counting on the SSW event if it were to occur.
What is funny is when you get a stronger El Nino much of China is usually very mild and it started that way early in the fall with record temps but it has switched and done a 180. The STJ and we talk about it quite often but the jet does not stop and heads around the world and so far with it being well south this has helped both Europe and Asia to get cold and stormy. Hopefully the STJ gets into its normal position during and El Nino and this hopefully will bring more storminess but having systems getting closer to together to merge and that is so important. That happened this past weekend and the only problem is we still had too much warm air around but the storm was able to bring a quick shot of cold to the east.
Like last weekend's system did have phasing (late). But, these phasings are few and far between in this pattern. Hopefully, in Jan we can get more phasing and have colder air to work with or get into those boundary type situations where we are on the cold side, but that could also mean ice storms which we don't need! Ugh!!
I agree Les and this does not include if a SSW happens. I believe we have several weeks for any effects from a SSW if it happens at all. With the ridging hopefully going into NW Canada and Alaska this will have the cold air over in Siberia come up and over the ridge. Sure its not that cold in western Canada but you can get the flow to hook up with the cold over eastern Canada and that air can work its way south. Still believe many times this season we are on the western edge of the really cold air but being on the edge many times is the place to be for a big storm.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:17 pm I'm still digging the longer term guidance (12Z GFS / GEFS) esp for early January. I think the first week or two of the New Year holds promise with an active STJ and ridging retrograding into NW Canada and AK. Cold enough air for snow may finally begin to get more involved. Hang in there my fellow snow lovers! Our time is still yet to come!
Agreed Tim. If the SSW occurs in early January then you would not see impacts until late in the month and into February. Even if one occurs, there is still no guarantee we get cold. The cold could easily remain in Siberia and China where it has been.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:25 pmI agree Les and this does not include if a SSW happens. I believe we have several weeks for any effects from a SSW if it happens at all. With the ridging hopefully going into NW Canada and Alaska this will have the cold air over in Siberia come up and over the ridge. Sure its not that cold in western Canada but you can get the flow to hook up with the cold over eastern Canada and that air can work its way south. Still believe many times this season we are on the western edge of the really cold air but being on the edge many times is the place to be for a big storm.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:17 pm I'm still digging the longer term guidance (12Z GFS / GEFS) esp for early January. I think the first week or two of the New Year holds promise with an active STJ and ridging retrograding into NW Canada and AK. Cold enough air for snow may finally begin to get more involved. Hang in there my fellow snow lovers! Our time is still yet to come!
I'd forget it too. You know it will change on the Happy Hour run in a few hours.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 2:03 pmJust saw the 12z GFS and the very end of the run. So, I'm just going to forget what I just saw! Lol lol
Hey Joe,winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 10:27 amWhat's funny is that -8 for last year (2022) fell about one year ago today when we had that brief blizzard and cold snap.
A few days later we found the wheel in a plowed snowbank by the road and a few weeks later received a new cart. We had also used a recyclables tub at our former house.Les I had this stored in my photos, (and this one) don’t have phase 1 for Jan but have phase 2 and if that follows suit that should add better winter chances and or rain makers for much of the lower 48