Absolute Vorticity

That looks outstanding JP! Too bad it isn't going to last after this week.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:38 am long range showing well above avg temps as we go into September. yuck ! mid to upper 80s all next week. sumhow I knew this was gonna happen since most this entire summer was below avg and now as we get closer to fall summer is gonna set in and its going to end up hot in Sept and Oct. i think it was just 3 or 4 years ago it was almost 90 in early Oct here. patterns always shift and change so expect to see dry and above avg temps as we get into Sept

Hi Charles,

I remember a family reunion in early Oct 2019 in Indiana and it was in the low 90s. Was weird and wild in T-shirts and shorts for sure that time of year.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:27 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:38 am long range showing well above avg temps as we go into September. yuck ! mid to upper 80s all next week. sumhow I knew this was gonna happen since most this entire summer was below avg and now as we get closer to fall summer is gonna set in and its going to end up hot in Sept and Oct. i think it was just 3 or 4 years ago it was almost 90 in early Oct here. patterns always shift and change so expect to see dry and above avg temps as we get into Sept

Hi Charles,

I remember a family reunion in early Oct 2019 in Indiana and it was in the low 90s. Was weird and wild in T-shirts and shorts for sure that time of year.

September and October 2007 comes to mind with a lot of dry and hot conditions. Low 90's in early October! The dews were low and that's why we had the higher temps.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:27 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:27 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:38 am long range showing well above avg temps as we go into September. yuck ! mid to upper 80s all next week. sumhow I knew this was gonna happen since most this entire summer was below avg and now as we get closer to fall summer is gonna set in and its going to end up hot in Sept and Oct. i think it was just 3 or 4 years ago it was almost 90 in early Oct here. patterns always shift and change so expect to see dry and above avg temps as we get into Sept

Hi Charles,

I remember a family reunion in early Oct 2019 in Indiana and it was in the low 90s. Was weird and wild in T-shirts and shorts for sure that time of year.

September and October 2007 comes to mind with a lot of dry and hot conditions. Low 90's in early October! The dews were low and that's why we had the higher temps.

Here's what's interesting about that Joe. The winter of 2007-2008 was a strong La Nina. Record snows fell across the Upper Midwest / Portions of the Plains / Great Lakes and Toledo, OH. South of that line (like for our forum area) it was Cutter City until the March 2008 storm finally buried us to save our winter. This go around, we are entering a potential strong El Nino for the upcoming winter. I do not think this Sept / Oct is going to be as hot as it was in 2007-2008. At least I hope not LOL This summer as a whole has been vastly different then 2007-2008. Not as hot and not quite as dry. Hopefully, we get some rain down the road. Right now though I can see why the comparison to 2007-2008 has been made. I still believe that Fall will come in once the tropics are done. When will that be? I don't yet know. I would say currently that it isn't happening thru at least mid Sept that is for sure.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:44 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:27 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:27 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:38 am long range showing well above avg temps as we go into September. yuck ! mid to upper 80s all next week. sumhow I knew this was gonna happen since most this entire summer was below avg and now as we get closer to fall summer is gonna set in and its going to end up hot in Sept and Oct. i think it was just 3 or 4 years ago it was almost 90 in early Oct here. patterns always shift and change so expect to see dry and above avg temps as we get into Sept

Hi Charles,

I remember a family reunion in early Oct 2019 in Indiana and it was in the low 90s. Was weird and wild in T-shirts and shorts for sure that time of year.

September and October 2007 comes to mind with a lot of dry and hot conditions. Low 90's in early October! The dews were low and that's why we had the higher temps.

Here's what's interesting about that Joe. The winter of 2007-2008 was a strong La Nina. Record snows fell across the Upper Midwest / Portions of the Plains / Great Lakes and Toledo, OH. South of that line (like for our forum area) it was Cutter City until the March 2008 storm finally buried us to save our winter. This go around, we are entering a potential strong El Nino for the upcoming winter. I do not think this Sept / Oct is going to be as hot as it was in 2007-2008. At least I hope not LOL This summer as a whole has been vastly different then 2007-2008. Not as hot and not quite as dry. Hopefully, we get some rain down the road. Right now though I can see why the comparison to 2007-2008 has been made. I still believe that Fall will come in once the tropics are done. When will that be? I don't yet know. I would say currently that it isn't happening thru at least mid Sept that is for sure.

Sounds good to me Les, I'm just ready for some nice cool weather in September, the 90's with those high dew points are just miserable. I do hope that we can have some decent weather through October before my snow wienie drooling comes about.

12Z GFS is still hell bent on tracking Idalia off the SE Coast a little bit then it loops back towards FL and strikes the Eastern side this time as a minimal TS. Then it crosses FL and goes back out into the Gulf and eventually gets S TX or N Mexico with whatever is left of the system by then. That is rare but not unheard of for a tropical system to make multiple landfalls. Anyway a scenario such as that doesn't offer us much in the way of Fall weather, at least not for a while. The GFS has spotty rain / t-storms from about the 6th or 7th on Sept onwards and finally bring in a stronger cold front / trough around the 13th which is in model fantasy land.

The Canadian looked like it was trying to go the GFS's route with Idalia but it appears to be that the system just gets sheared apart and doesn't make it back to FL intact. The GEFS Mean does not support the OP GFS at all and kicks it out to sea. The Euro is coming in now and it is a little bit different. It stalls the system, right along the NC Coast so the Eastern end of NC / Outer Banks get hammered with TS force wind and remains for about 24 hours maybe 36 hours before it finally heads out to sea.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:44 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:27 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:27 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:38 am long range showing well above avg temps as we go into September. yuck ! mid to upper 80s all next week. sumhow I knew this was gonna happen since most this entire summer was below avg and now as we get closer to fall summer is gonna set in and its going to end up hot in Sept and Oct. i think it was just 3 or 4 years ago it was almost 90 in early Oct here. patterns always shift and change so expect to see dry and above avg temps as we get into Sept

Hi Charles,

I remember a family reunion in early Oct 2019 in Indiana and it was in the low 90s. Was weird and wild in T-shirts and shorts for sure that time of year.

September and October 2007 comes to mind with a lot of dry and hot conditions. Low 90's in early October! The dews were low and that's why we had the higher temps.

Here's what's interesting about that Joe. The winter of 2007-2008 was a strong La Nina. Record snows fell across the Upper Midwest / Portions of the Plains / Great Lakes and Toledo, OH. South of that line (like for our forum area) it was Cutter City until the March 2008 storm finally buried us to save our winter. This go around, we are entering a potential strong El Nino for the upcoming winter. I do not think this Sept / Oct is going to be as hot as it was in 2007-2008. At least I hope not LOL This summer as a whole has been vastly different then 2007-2008. Not as hot and not quite as dry. Hopefully, we get some rain down the road. Right now though I can see why the comparison to 2007-2008 has been made. I still believe that Fall will come in once the tropics are done. When will that be? I don't yet know. I would say currently that it isn't happening thru at least mid Sept that is for sure.

Sounds good to me Les, I'm just ready for some nice cool weather in September, the 90's with those high dew points are just miserable. I do hope that we can have some decent weather through October before my snow wienie drooling comes about.

Same here Joe. If we do remain warm / hot and dry then the fall color this year won't be all that great like it has been the last couple of years.

We are still looking at awesome weather thru Friday with low humidity values as dews remain in the 50s. In fact, highs tomorrow and Thurs should remain in the 70s! Mid 80s still for Friday. Lows each night in the 50s. Then we get the upper 80s this weekend, probably 90 on Sunday as lows begin to creep up into the 60s. The real deal humidity with dews in the U60s comes by Labor Day along with the lower 90s. That is still better then those 70-80 degree dews that we just endured. The 90s may stick around for a while too. If the GFS is right, we'll have way more 90s in Sept then any other month this summer LOL

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:38 pm We are still looking at awesome weather thru Friday with low humidity values as dews remain in the 50s. In fact, highs tomorrow and Thurs should remain in the 70s! Mid 80s still for Friday. Lows each night in the 50s. Then we get the upper 80s this weekend, probably 90 on Sunday as lows begin to creep up into the 60s. The real deal humidity with dews in the U60s comes by Labor Day along with the lower 90s. That is still better then those 70-80 degree dews that we just endured. The 90s may stick around for a while too. If the GFS is right, we'll have way more 90s in Sept then any other month this summer LOL

Hey Bro, Joe and Bgoney may end up the winners for Sept!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:38 pm We are still looking at awesome weather thru Friday with low humidity values as dews remain in the 50s. In fact, highs tomorrow and Thurs should remain in the 70s! Mid 80s still for Friday. Lows each night in the 50s. Then we get the upper 80s this weekend, probably 90 on Sunday as lows begin to creep up into the 60s. The real deal humidity with dews in the U60s comes by Labor Day along with the lower 90s. That is still better then those 70-80 degree dews that we just endured. The 90s may stick around for a while too. If the GFS is right, we'll have way more 90s in Sept then any other month this summer LOL

Hey Bro, Joe and Bgoney may end up the winners for Sept!

It's quite possible. We'll see how many we can rack up as the month goes on to eventually declare the overall winner.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:12 am That looks outstanding JP! Too bad it isn't going to last after this week.

Might be sweatshirt weather in the am on one or two days. . lol

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:12 am That looks outstanding JP! Too bad it isn't going to last after this week.

Might be sweatshirt weather in the am on one or two days. . lol

For sure.... this week continues to look great! Next week, not so much.

Good Afternoon and what a nice day. The weather over the next 3 days are wonderful before we warm up. I am starting to see signs that the heat that starts building up over the weekend into early next week will be a much shorter period than models show. I believe the tropics will quiet down in the Atlantic and GOM plus I believe we will start seeing the cooler air out west trying to make inroads as the heat in the southern plans moves westward. These are small signs and I believe models should pick up on this more especially after the two tropical systems have moved away from the USA. I believe the gfs is too hot with temps next week and mainly a 86-89 range Saturday-Monday and then maybe a tad higher just before we start to cool down mid-late week.

I agree Tim that the GFS is way too hot. It has 100 degree heat again where the Euro is much more reasonable showing low to mid 90s. I am going with the lower 90s as I said earlier by Labor Day. We shall see how long that lasts.

----

Good morning all! A little warmer this morning with a few clouds thanks to a weak front that is moving thru. This front will allow the gorgeous temps to continue thru Friday before the heat returns this weekend and the humidity by Labor Day. Expecting low 90s Labor Day thru at least Thurs or Fri of next week before the 80s return by the end of next week or next weekend. We should be able to tack on at least 4 90 degree days coming up. Maybe 5 depending on how things shake out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 7:32 am Good morning all! A little warmer this morning with a few clouds thanks to a weak front that is moving thru. This front will allow the gorgeous temps to continue thru Friday before the heat returns this weekend and the humidity by Labor Day. Expecting low 90s Labor Day thru at least Thurs or Fri of next week before the 80s return by the end of next week or next weekend. We should be able to tack on at least 4 90 degree days coming up. Maybe 5 depending on how things shake out.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks good and normally the amount of 90 degree days that models show are too high but this time with dry air in place and a ground that is drying out I would expect 3 days. I believe Sunday may fall just short but Monday-Wed is almost a lock. I still believe the models are a little too strong with the ridge over the northeast and some cooler air will try to sort of back in towards us later in the week. How far the cooler temps go is a key question and models not showing that yet but after the tropical systems leave this should change the models output. The trough on the west coast is strong early in the period but this time of year those troughs usually are short termed and I believe that is the case here and the ridge which is strong in the plains should also start to head west once again next week.

Unfortunately, I am still not seeing much in the way of rainfall over the next 10 days. We are just kind of sitting here in no man's land with the tropics impacting locations well to our south and a trough over the Pacific NW keeping the storm track well north and west of us. So we get to bask in some nice weather this week, the 90s next week, then we'll see how things look after that. Kind of a boring pattern for us, but if you have major outdoor projects to get done before winter, this is a good time to do them.

You can tell that the front has passed. A gusty north wind of 10 to 25 mph is now occurring with gusts to 25 at CVG per the 9am reading. I'll be begging for some wind when those 90s return in Sept. Anyway, the last 2 days of August look fantastic!

yesterday and today were beautiful! I hope we get out of the Second Summer mid-September and get some good fall weather in before the Winter!

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:35 am yesterday and today were beautiful! I hope we get out of the Second Summer mid-September and get some good fall weather in before the Winter!

Hey there Mollie! Hope you and the fam are doing well. I would love to see a cooler second half of Sept. I'm just not sure yet to be honest. We need the tropics to shut down that is for sure. For now expect warm and dry conditions for a while once we start this weekend and especially next week.

What a beautiful day and will have the windows open for at least 3 days to freshen up the house.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:12 pm What a beautiful day and will have the windows open for at least 3 days to freshen up the house.

I like the mid 50s by tomorrow morning for CVG / City Center locations. In the rural areas, especially in sheltered valleys, an isolated upper 40 degree reading could certainly occur.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:23 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:12 pm What a beautiful day and will have the windows open for at least 3 days to freshen up the house.

I like the mid 50s by tomorrow morning for CVG / City Center locations. In the rural areas, especially in sheltered valleys, an isolated upper 40 degree reading could certainly occur.

I agree Les we could see a few upper 40's over the next two mornings in the rural areas. Again nowhere near a record but we have not seen that too often in the past several years in late August.

CVG has been holding at 73 degrees for the last hour. Today is about as perfect as it gets in late August. Hope all can enjoy the next couple of days before summer returns. It truly is awesome outside!