Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:38 am**

Good morning. I got down to 33 here with a car topper. About what I expected. 32 at CVG right now. 0.03" of QPF at the Airport. Don't know if that translated into any snow or not.

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:56 am**

I can't figure out what ILN was thinking with the wwa for cvgland. I guess their bored

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:33 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:38 am Around an inch here in Lebanon on my car. Pavement is wet as we expected.

Around an inch here as well. Light snow hanging on for the moment.

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:12 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:56 am I can't figure out what ILN was thinking with the wwa for cvgland. I guess their bored

Yeah I think pretty much everyone on here was in agreement that it was not needed.

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:37 am**

Good Morning and took me 2 hours to shovel this morning. I still have not figured out why we had the advisory. The heaviest snows were near Indy with some places getting over 2 inches. Most folks especially from Cincinnati and south got little if any. I had a little dusting on some bushes and I saw a few cars with snow. Sometimes in mid-March with a system like this and happening at night some accumulation is possible but we have been so mild the past two months and no way was the snow going to accumulate on road surfaces. Even Indy which did get some accumulation never threw out the advisory and my guess roads are good there as well.

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:03 pm**

Could be some impressive snow showers/squalls tomorrow afternoon. ILN has touched on this as well in their HWO. I’m in agreement with the best chance being from Cincy and areas northeast. With temps above freezing not much accumulation expected. But rapid drops in visibility is something to watch in any areas that see a ss/squall.

Lots of energy overhead during this time.

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:43 pm**

expecting some snow flurries / showers later tonight

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:58 pm**

I didn't take a measurement this morning as I had church and then ate out lunch but from eying it before leaving the driveway would guess that I had around 1.50" to 2".

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 27 Mon morning.

Posted: **Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:20 pm**

My folks will be going to Blue Ash tomorrow morning as Mom has a med appt.

At least currently the precip chance for Mon is only 40% to 50%.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:06 am**

a couple snow flurries falling . expecting a few heavier snow showers and wind once that storm gets cranking off the east coast late tonight

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:40 am**

My thoughts for today remain unchanged from yesterday. Be cautious when traveling later today, especially this afternoon. Brief heavy snow showers/squalls are likely. While accumulation on roads is expected to be little to none, it’s more of a concern for rapid drops in visibility.

Like with thunderstorms, not everyone will see one. But if you do, it will come down really hard for a brief time. ILN also noted that some may hear thunder in a heavier snow squall. I am in agreement based on the setup.

Best chance for this will be this afternoon after we get a little “heating.”

ILN is covering this with a SPS for now and I agree with that call versus another advisory because again, road accumulations will be little to none based on temps, road temps, and higher sun angle. Good call from them this time to not issue an advisory.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:42 am**

I'm just getting back into the groove here. Steep lapse rates and snow squall parameter will need to be watched for this afternoon. Then maybe a tad more thanks to Lake Michigan for tomorrow. Then we're back to spring for a few days. Expecting Rain on St. Patty's Day with a chilly next weekend before warming up again.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:51 am**

Simulated reflectivity from the HRRR at 4pm. Timing is unfavorable for the PM commute. Could be some big slowdowns with the drops in visibility.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:53 am**

I should say that one thing that has changed from my posting yesterday and today is focus area. Yesterday I thought it was mainly going to be an issue for the metro and points northeast. After reviewing newer guidance, pretty much everyone is in the game now.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:56 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:53 am I should say that one thing that has changed from my posting yesterday and today is focus area. Yesterday I thought it was mainly going to be an issue for the metro and points northeast. After reviewing newer guidance, pretty much everyone is in the game now.

You should post more often!

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:57 am**

Good Morning and nice posts concerning snow squalls later today. Like Trevor mentioned get the heating of the day and these squalls can be quite intense for a short period. Lucky the road temps are doing okay. I have seen this kind of event when road temps were lower and the whole city becomes a parking lot.

Wausau,Wi where my son and his family is moving too in June got another 9.6 inches of snow with almost 2 feet on the ground and expecting a blizzard later this week. Going to see quite a bit of flooding on the Mississippi River this spring because streams and smaller river will be way above normal. Hopefully a slow process to milder air for those areas because a big warm up in a short period will cause extensive flooding.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:57 am**

How about we throw in a little CAPE? Pretty common with a setup like this actually (especially this time of year). Will further aid in the more convective nature of the snow showers/squalls. As Les touched on, lapse rates will be steep as well. Thundersnow is a real possibility today in spots.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:57 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:56 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:53 am I should say that one thing that has changed from my posting yesterday and today is focus area. Yesterday I thought it was mainly going to be an issue for the metro and points northeast. After reviewing newer guidance, pretty much everyone is in the game now.
You should post more often!

With my new work schedule I will absolutely be able to!

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:58 am**

6Z RAP looked really good too for snow squall coverage this afternoon and evening.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:59 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:56 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:53 am I should say that one thing that has changed from my posting yesterday and today is focus area. Yesterday I thought it was mainly going to be an issue for the metro and points northeast. After reviewing newer guidance, pretty much everyone is in the game now.
You should post more often!
With my new work schedule I will absolutely be able to!

Awesome! Good to hear.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:00 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:57 am Good Morning and nice posts concerning snow squalls later today. Like Trevor mentioned get the heating of the day and these squalls can be quite intense for a short period. Lucky the road temps are doing okay. I have seen this kind of event when road temps were lower and the whole city becomes a parking lot.

Wausau,Wi where my son and his family is moving too in June got another 9.6 inches of snow with almost 2 feet on the ground and expecting a blizzard later this week. Going to see quite a bit of flooding on the Mississippi River this spring because streams and smaller river will be way above normal. Hopefully a slow process to milder air for those areas because a big warm up in a short period will cause extensive flooding.

Absolutely. Man if temps were colder (like say this happened in Jan) we would be in a lot more trouble. But yes as you said road temps/sun angle should prevent much if any from accumulating on those surfaces. That’s a positive for sure. Visibility is of more concern today.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:00 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:57 am Good Morning and nice posts concerning snow squalls later today. Like Trevor mentioned get the heating of the day and these squalls can be quite intense for a short period. Lucky the road temps are doing okay. I have seen this kind of event when road temps were lower and the whole city becomes a parking lot.

Wausau,Wi where my son and his family is moving too in June got another 9.6 inches of snow with almost 2 feet on the ground and expecting a blizzard later this week. Going to see quite a bit of flooding on the Mississippi River this spring because streams and smaller river will be way above normal. Hopefully a slow process to milder air for those areas because a big warm up in a short period will cause extensive flooding.

Tim.... I will be so jealous when you take trips up there next season! The lakes up in the North Country needed to be filled. Been a drought the last 2 years in N Wisc and MN so the extra snow pack for them is good to see. As you said, not so good news for those further down stream.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:02 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:40 am My thoughts for today remain unchanged from yesterday. Be cautious when traveling later today, especially this afternoon. Brief heavy snow showers/squalls are likely. While accumulation on roads is expected to be little to none, it’s more of a concern for rapid drops in visibility.

Like with thunderstorms, not everyone will see one. But if you do, it will come down really hard for a brief time. ILN also noted that some may hear thunder in a heavier snow squall. I am in agreement based on the setup.

Best chance for this will be this afternoon after we get a little “heating.”

ILN is covering this with a SPS for now and I agree with that call versus another advisory because again, road accumulations will be little to none based on temps, road temps, and higher sun angle. Good call from them this time to not issue an advisory.

That strange call and bust for saturday has kind of put the boys of Iln in a pickle for today. If their reasoning to issue a WWA for saturday was because they thought that travel locally in isolated areas might briefly become hazardous, what do they think today offers? The boys are having a confusing end to winter.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:06 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:02 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:40 am My thoughts for today remain unchanged from yesterday. Be cautious when traveling later today, especially this afternoon. Brief heavy snow showers/squalls are likely. While accumulation on roads is expected to be little to none, it’s more of a concern for rapid drops in visibility.

Like with thunderstorms, not everyone will see one. But if you do, it will come down really hard for a brief time. ILN also noted that some may hear thunder in a heavier snow squall. I am in agreement based on the setup.

Best chance for this will be this afternoon after we get a little “heating.”

ILN is covering this with a SPS for now and I agree with that call versus another advisory because again, road accumulations will be little to none based on temps, road temps, and higher sun angle. Good call from them this time to not issue an advisory.
That strange call and bust for saturday has kind of put the boys of Iln in a pickle for today. If their reasoning to issue a WWA for saturday was because they thought that travel locally in isolated areas might briefly become hazardous, what do they think today offers? The boys are having a confusing end to winter.

Very true. And to be honest, today would have made more sense for an advisory given it’s a work day and travel will be much more impacted; not just because of that, but also these will be some wicked visibility reducers versus the crap we saw yesterday morning lol.

They’ll probably issue one later lol.

Posted: **Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:26 am**

Typically they issue one as the event is winding down so the advisory ahead of time on Saturday with marginal conditions was definitely a head scratcher to me. So they decide to cover today with an SPS. We'll see what happens.

I actually like the coverage better for this afternoon on the modeling then I did for Saturday as that as a weakening system as it was coming in. These cells are smaller but they should be numerous and if you get a couple over your hood, you could get a covering on grassy areas, car tops etc. I agree with road temps being too warm unless it comes down like gangbusters. Then as already stated, in a rush hour setting visibility reductions could certainly occur and cause problems. You've got it all pretty well covered here Trev. We'll just keep watching the data until go time.

Absolute Vorticity

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