February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

60 here today, 59 at CVG.

[airwolf76]

winter on hold at least till donut day. maybe last 5 days of month we see something in the east before we begin our "March to remember"

[MVWxObserver]

A little off topic. Just checked in to the Bay Mills casino overlooking Whitefish Bay on Lake Superior. Talked to the lady at registration and she said “the weather is supposed to get really bad! It’s supposed to get above freezing!” It’s all in your perspective!

Have a great time Bo!

Hopefully won't be any un-identified sky 'objects' up that way during your stay bro.

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

[Bgoney]

Still in slight risk for Thursday. SPC......


Another severe episode, and potentially becoming bi-modal in spatial coverage, is forecast on Thursday through Thursday evening. A large-scale, positively tilted mid-level trough will gradually move from the central Great Plains into the Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes and Ozark Plateau. A belt of intense 500-mb flow will move northeast to the east of the eastward-progressing trough axis. In the low levels, a surface low will migrate northeast from southeast MO to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. A cold front will sweep southeastward across the lower MS Valley and OH Valley before reaching the Appalachians.

Considerable shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the OH Valley southward into the lower MS Valley. Some of these storms, likely already grown upscale into lines and bands of storms, will probably pose some risk for strong, damaging gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk. It is uncertain whether these initial storms continue east and some of them re-intensify during the day, or additional storms develop in their wake where some destabilization can occur. Regardless, it seems the warm sector with 100-500 J/kg MLCAPE will overspread much of the OH Valley. Low-topped bands of storms within strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will favor at least some threat for damaging gusts on the northern portion of the warm sector. Some of these storms or low-topped convective bands may pose a wind hazard well into the evening near/southeast of the surface low track.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Here's the graphic to go along with the above discussion:

day3otlk_0830.gif

[Bgoney]

CVG up to a torchy 4.2 degrees above normal for Feb . Cbus + 5.5. Dayton + 5.2

[tron777]

NAM seems to want to shear this system out for Thurs but the GFS and Euro still look good and show the severe wx potential.

[tron777]

In the extended range, overnight models looked colder but IMO not cold enough. I see many systems producing a cold rain here with ice / snow chances North of I-70. This matches up with MJO Phase 7 that Bgoney and I talked about yesterday. We've got to get that baroclinic boundary to be SE of us not north of us to receive wintry weather. We'll see what happens I guess and hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised down the road. All it takes is one good event to save the winter around here.

[Bgoney]

In the extended range, overnight models looked colder but IMO not cold enough. I see many systems producing a cold rain here with ice / snow chances North of I-70. This matches up with MJO Phase 7 that Bgoney and I talked about yesterday. We've got to get that baroclinic boundary to be SE of us not north of us to receive wintry weather. We'll see what happens I guess and hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised down the road. All it takes is one good event to save the winter around here.

Its the old "Hurry up and wait " as usual around here for snow.

Anyways, PV is expected to reverse winds by tomorrow, so by the end of the week models should start having a go in the long range of where and when the biggest effects will be come March.

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 6.3 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -21.5 m/s 2018
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 69.2 m/s 1988

umedel60.png

[tron777]

There is never a guarantee with these SSW events but between that and the possible MJO phase getting into 7 / 8 it's all we've got unfortunately. MJO is definitely rolling thru Phase 6 at this time. Some of the guidance now wants to do a loop in Phase 7 / COD then get it into 8 by the second week of March. So we'll have to watch for the possibility too.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Wed. This is due to the first incoming system that drags up the warmer air for our 70 degree high tomorrow.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
expected. Localized higher gusts near 50 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

[tron777]

Then for Thurs, we'll need to watch the timing of the warm front in the morning and how quickly it surges north. Do we see any break in the rain and / or some cloud breaks to build things up for Thurs afternoon and evening? Or is this mainly a heavy rain event? Thurs will most likely be a nowcast to see how the event unfolds. For severe wx lovers, you'd want a faster warm frontal passage to allow for more time in the warm sector prior to the cold front passing thru. If you dislike severe wx, then you'd want a slower passage of the warm front and stay cloudy and rainy for most of the day on Thurs which would promote localized flash flooding issues but it would significantly cut down on the severe wx threat. There are models supporting both ideas so we'll just have to wait and see how it all unfolds.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and finally got back to my favorite hobby. Been in SC since Friday. Had about an inch of rain late Saturday and early Sunday. Had one big lightning strike and 30 second rumble of the house Saturday evening and about a 2 minute period where we had sleet Sunday morning. Been here almost 4 years and the rainfall has been amazing and this is a wet place to begin with.

Will try and catch up with everything later today and hopefully everyone is doing well.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and finally got back to my favorite hobby. Been in SC since Friday. Had about an inch of rain late Saturday and early Sunday. Had one big lightning strike and 30 second rumble of the house Saturday evening and about a 2 minute period where we had sleet Sunday morning. Been here almost 4 years and the rainfall has been amazing and this is a wet place to begin with.

Will try and catch up with everything later today and hopefully everyone is doing well.

Welcome back Tim! If you haven't noticed yet we are busy tracking wind and potential severe wx on Thurs. Been busy working so I haven't posted much since this morning but I have a few mins to do so now. We will see some showers this evening / early tonight then the winds will get cranking. 73 is the record for CVG tomorrow so we'll have to see how close we get. I think 70 easy at this time. Then, Thurs is the nowcast to see how fast the warm front moves thru for heavy rain potential then how much time do we have in the warm sector before the front comes thru later in the afternoon. We get cold for Fri, but warm right back up this weekend on into next week. Same ole pattern we've been stuck in for quite sometime.

[tpweather]

Hey Les I have followed the weather somewhat but not like I normally would this time of year. Beautiful down here with upper 60's, no wind and low humidity. Still nothing blooming so far and even down here its a little early but should expect that to change in the next few weeks. Should be back next Monday or Tuesday and hopefully chances for winter weather will start to appear.

[tron777]

Hey Les I have followed the weather somewhat but not like I normally would this time of year. Beautiful down here with upper 60's, no wind and low humidity. Still nothing blooming so far and even down here its a little early but should expect that to change in the next few weeks. Should be back next Monday or Tuesday and hopefully chances for winter weather will start to appear.

For the rest of Feb, I'm not really sure Tim if we'll see any or at the very least not until the end of the month. This pattern that we've been stuck is in looking to be very difficult to break. Having to rely on a SSW for changes isn't very good. The MJO however is headed towards 7 here pretty soon but the jury is still out if it can make it to Phase 8 and if so, when? Bgoney stated it perfectly this morning when he said "Hurry up and wait" as far as snow is concerned. I'm still interested in watching late this month and esp the first couple of weeks in March. If we don't see any signs of change by then or if we don't score then it maybe over for the season. We shall see!

[tron777]

Dr. Amy Butler really knows her stuff and a good one to follow on Twitter for PV and SSW type of information. This was an interesting tweet she posted yesterday:








What she is talking about is when you get a SSW event and the MJO is in phases 5-7 (which it currently is, in Phase 6) with the event beginning to get underway as we have been discussing, approx. 45 days later you can get a more sustainable -NAO. If the SSW event occurs when the MJO is in the COD or in Phases 3/4, the NAO will be more positive. Lucky for us that the SSW is going to be occurring with the MJO in the Phase 5-7 range. We shall see how this impacts March as time goes on.

[Bgoney]

Dr. Amy Butler really knows her stuff and a good one to follow on Twitter for PV and SSW type of information. This was an interesting tweet she posted yesterday:








What she is talking about is when you get a SSW event and the MJO is in phases 5-7 (which it currently is, in Phase 6) with the event beginning to get underway as we have been discussing, approx. 45 days later you can get a more sustainable -NAO. If the SSW event occurs when the MJO is in the COD or in Phases 3/4, the NAO will be more positive. Lucky for us that the SSW is going to be occurring with the MJO in the Phase 5-7 range. We shall see how this impacts March as time goes on.

She is great as well as Simon, they make Cohen look like an amateur.

[Bgoney]

One thing I'm noticing on the charts I've seen is that the wind reversal is having a tough time working it's way down to the troposphere. Notice on the chart the zero line/blue's/wind reversal reaches about -20 , then a second stronger reversal/blues reaches about 50mb. I think the troposphere startsaround 100mb , so something to observe in the coming days

Les , if this is incorrect feel free to correct

Screenshot_20230214-163148_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

One thing I'm noticing on the charts I've seen is that the wind reversal is having a tough time working it's way down to the troposphere. Notice on the chart the zero line/blue's/wind reversal reaches about -20 , then a second stronger reversal/blues reaches about 50mb. I think the troposphere startsaround 100mb , so something to observe in the coming days

Les , if this is incorrect feel free to correct



Screenshot_20230214-163148_Chrome.jpg

You are 100% correct. I have noticed that as well. It won't do a bit of good if it does not work its way from the top down (meaning from the stratosphere into the troposphere). This definitely needs to be monitored in the coming days for sure. It's trying but it's got a ways to go before it will do any good to help alter the pattern over North America. The MJO phase being in 5-7 as this is occurring should at least make things more favorable for a potential -NAO to develop in March. Seeing signs of that on the Ensembles already even though it is still fantasy range.

[Bgoney]

Here's an example and similar chart of a SSW in which the winds reversed (0 or blues) all the way down through the troposphere to ground level. This was in February 2018.

Screenshot_20230214-170654_Gallery.jpg

[tron777]

Here's an example and similar chart of a SSW in which the winds reversed (0 or blues) all the way down through the troposphere to ground level. This was in February 2018.



Screenshot_20230214-170654_Gallery.jpg

Yes! I've been seeing a lot of folks on social media bringing up March of 2018 as a possible analog too. At CVG, we were 3.7 degrees below avg for the month and total snowfall was 9.7" 3/21 and 3/24 both broke daily snowfall records. Based on the earlier chart you posted for real time Feb of 2023, there is a ton of work to be done to achieve a March of 2018 outcome. I just don't see it happening at this time. To be clear, I am not saying that there won't be chances but that year in 2018, chances occurred deep into the month. I like the first half of the month currently and that is it.

[tron777]

I mean shoot... look at this!

[Bgoney]

SPC bumped up severe chances for tomorrow with 2 rounds of rain/storms . One early morning between 4-8am , then a break , how long a break and or sunshine is in question. Best Guess for next round at the moment between 2 and 6pm, subject to change and or narrowed down later.

day2otlk.gif

OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes
Showers and thunderstorms located within a strong WAA regime will be widespread across the lower OH Valley at daybreak Thursday. An isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms may continue into the early part of the morning, before this activity quickly moves northeast and away from the greater instability by midday. A rejuvenation in storms is forecast over parts of IN/KY and spreading east-northeast into OH during the afternoon into the evening. Forecast soundings over west-central OH southwestward to the Kentuckiana region show weak buoyancy but large hodographs and strong speed shear in the lowest 3-6 km. It is uncertain whether a few low-topped supercells will develop within this area of potentially greater buoyancy, but convective coverage is forecast to increase during the afternoon as storms quickly move east-northeast on the northern periphery of a warm sector. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, but some tornado risk may develop with either supercells and/or line segments, given the moist boundary layer co-located with strong shear. This activity will likely reach eastern OH into the lower Great Lakes region after sunset, but forecast soundings imply these storms may remain surface based, and perhaps the risk for damaging gusts continues into the late evening