Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:29 pm Another model bust... Models are dead wrong with the timing of the arctic front and busting badly on temps. This means that the cold is coming sooner and harder!





I could post tons of these! The internet is full of them right now.

Busting on the cold and timing but also is it busting on how far south the cold is digging.

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:21 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:13 pm I saw Brian's video earlier and he talked about how the jet is further south and there may be some action that could lead to a low pressure to our south or at least something that would bring more lift into the storm. I was a little surprised he had us already in the 4-6 inch range because he does not overreact to model runs.

I was absolutely shocked by WAVE's map. But as Chuck said, WHAS in Louisville had the same forecast. Is anyone aware of our Local Cincy Mets going that high? Local 12 had 2-4". I don't watch the other channels.

Saw Kevin at 5pm and he mentioned several times that the trend for higher snow totals was happening each and every run and was looking at that part of the forecast.

Steve H on 19 was putting "Euro Model Data" on the screen and calling for an inch or less in downtown. Not sure what he is considering "Euro Model Data" because it's been higher than that for 24 hours now if I'm not mistaken!

Mike... Horsey has just crapped the bed in his forecasting since he left 12. I don't know what happened. He is so smart and has Science / Atmospheric and a Met degree, one of which is a masters!

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:21 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:13 pm I saw Brian's video earlier and he talked about how the jet is further south and there may be some action that could lead to a low pressure to our south or at least something that would bring more lift into the storm. I was a little surprised he had us already in the 4-6 inch range because he does not overreact to model runs.

I was absolutely shocked by WAVE's map. But as Chuck said, WHAS in Louisville had the same forecast. Is anyone aware of our Local Cincy Mets going that high? Local 12 had 2-4". I don't watch the other channels.

Saw Kevin at 5pm and he mentioned several times that the trend for higher snow totals was happening each and every run and was looking at that part of the forecast.

Steve H on 19 was putting "Euro Model Data" on the screen and calling for an inch or less in downtown. Not sure what he is considering "Euro Model Data" because it's been higher than that for 24 hours now if I'm not mistaken!

He's probably talking about the UKMet, because that is exactly what it shows!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:29 pm Another model bust... Models are dead wrong with the timing of the arctic front and busting badly on temps. This means that the cold is coming sooner and harder!

I could post tons of these! The internet is full of them right now.

Busting on the cold and timing but also is it busting on how far south the cold is digging.

Absolutely Tim! And thanks... saw your post about what Kevin said on the previous page. I remember him from long ago at TWC. Good Met!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:29 pm Another model bust... Models are dead wrong with the timing of the arctic front and busting badly on temps. This means that the cold is coming sooner and harder!

I could post tons of these! The internet is full of them right now.

Busting on the cold and timing but also is it busting on how far south the cold is digging.

Absolutely Tim! And thanks... saw your post about what Kevin said on the previous page. I remember him from long ago at TWC. Good Met!

Best thing he ever did was leave TWC. Back in the 80's TWC was about the weather and MTV was about music.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:21 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:13 pm I saw Brian's video earlier and he talked about how the jet is further south and there may be some action that could lead to a low pressure to our south or at least something that would bring more lift into the storm. I was a little surprised he had us already in the 4-6 inch range because he does not overreact to model runs.

I was absolutely shocked by WAVE's map. But as Chuck said, WHAS in Louisville had the same forecast. Is anyone aware of our Local Cincy Mets going that high? Local 12 had 2-4". I don't watch the other channels.

Saw Kevin at 5pm and he mentioned several times that the trend for higher snow totals was happening each and every run and was looking at that part of the forecast.

Steve H on 19 was putting "Euro Model Data" on the screen and calling for an inch or less in downtown. Not sure what he is considering "Euro Model Data" because it's been higher than that for 24 hours now if I'm not mistaken!

Mike... Horsey has just crapped the bed in his forecasting since he left 12. I don't know what happened. He is so smart and has Science / Atmospheric and a Met degree, one of which is a masters!

Totally agree, he hasn't quite been the same since he left 12. Don't get me wrong, I don't claim to be a met, I just play one to my friends because of the internet! Lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:29 pm Another model bust... Models are dead wrong with the timing of the arctic front and busting badly on temps. This means that the cold is coming sooner and harder!

I could post tons of these! The internet is full of them right now.

Busting on the cold and timing but also is it busting on how far south the cold is digging.

Absolutely Tim! And thanks... saw your post about what Kevin said on the previous page. I remember him from long ago at TWC. Good Met!

Best thing he ever did was leave TWC. Back in the 80's TWC was about the weather and MTV was about music.

Yes Sir! Even into the mid 90s it was great. Along come the 2000s and well, you know the rest. That's why we're here!

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:21 pm

I was absolutely shocked by WAVE's map. But as Chuck said, WHAS in Louisville had the same forecast. Is anyone aware of our Local Cincy Mets going that high? Local 12 had 2-4". I don't watch the other channels.

Saw Kevin at 5pm and he mentioned several times that the trend for higher snow totals was happening each and every run and was looking at that part of the forecast.

Steve H on 19 was putting "Euro Model Data" on the screen and calling for an inch or less in downtown. Not sure what he is considering "Euro Model Data" because it's been higher than that for 24 hours now if I'm not mistaken!

Mike... Horsey has just crapped the bed in his forecasting since he left 12. I don't know what happened. He is so smart and has Science / Atmospheric and a Met degree, one of which is a masters!

Totally agree, he hasn't quite been the same since he left 12. Don't get me wrong, I don't claim to be a met, I just play one to my friends because of the internet! Lol

I'm not a Met either, just try to do the best that I can. Maybe we should just stick to fireworks?

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:39 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:29 pm Another model bust... Models are dead wrong with the timing of the arctic front and busting badly on temps. This means that the cold is coming sooner and harder!

I could post tons of these! The internet is full of them right now.

Busting on the cold and timing but also is it busting on how far south the cold is digging.

Absolutely Tim! And thanks... saw your post about what Kevin said on the previous page. I remember him from long ago at TWC. Good Met!

Best thing he ever did was leave TWC. Back in the 80's TWC was about the weather and MTV was about music.

Yes Sir! Even into the mid 90s it was great. Along come the 2000s and well, you know the rest. That's why we're here!

Haha! Probably not a bad idea!

15:1 ratios?

MattD41 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:46 pm15:1 ratios?

I believe the Ratios are just going to be one that is hard to figure out because it will change quickly imo. I believe when you average it out 15-1 may be correct but will it be 20-1 or 10-1 when you get the heaviest snow. These are usually a lot easier to figure out and my guess models are running into the same problems.

MattD41 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:46 pm15:1 ratios?

Hey Matt... Ratios are going to be a bit tougher because of the wind. Ratios will start out low probably 8:1 but quickly rise as the cold crashes in! If we can keep the snow going long enough, you may see a period of 20:1 to even 30:1 on some guidance! With that said, 40-50 mph wind gusts are going to crush the dendrites (snow flakes) against each other and the snow will be coming down sideways for a time! They won't be the big fat flakes, but more of a powdery, sandy type snow. So you can't really use those higher ratios IMO when forecasting. So yeah, 15:1 depending on what happens is a decent avg. But keep in mind the ratio will be changing throughout the entire event. It's not a constant thing with big winds and crashing temps. We're not seeing snow with calm winds and a steady temps of 28 degrees. Doing the math isn't quite as concrete in this set up. Another thing.. who is going to be able to accurately measure this? We've all brought up examples. I think Tim had a good one. Bare in one section of your yard and a 2 foot drift in the other. That sort of thing, we will likely be seeing. Forecasting snowfall accum with this storm is going to be a son of a bitch to put it bluntly!

Ok... 0Z model time! The HRRR has now started....

Note: Sometimes, I feel like John Madden when I call play by plays on model runs and when I do a weather video and I draw on it. Boom! Miss that guy. A legend to football.

We know Kentucky has issued a state of emergency and they interviewed DeWine on channel 5 and he also mentioned that he made need to issue one as well. These are good because you can have your resources in place if needed like the national guard.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:57 pm Ok... 0Z model time! The HRRR has now started....

Note: Sometimes, I feel like John Madden when I call play by plays on model runs and when I do a weather video and I draw on it. Boom! Miss that guy. A legend to football.

Les if you keep saying WOW with each model run I will be very happy.

So far with the late afternoon and evening models I believe they are not even getting the current conditions correct as there is much more snow going on in places they show dry

Like this? Lol

Let's see what happens here, but thru the early stages of the HRRR modal run 0Z vs 18Z, you can already tell that the low is a tad stronger as well as further south. You normally don't see that! Usually if its stronger, it's slower and more north. That is not the case here, it's the opposite! I think the models just can't handle the degree of the cold, and the strength of the cold. Much more baroclinicity and dynamics in play here IMO that what is being modeled.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:57 pm Ok... 0Z model time! The HRRR has now started....

Note: Sometimes, I feel like John Madden when I call play by plays on model runs and when I do a weather video and I draw on it. Boom! Miss that guy. A legend to football.

Les if you keep saying WOW with each model run I will be very happy.

This is going to be a long evening.

MattD41 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:03 pm 02E2E283-0729-4A14-B94A-D9F2A5955D85.jpeg
Like this? Lol

PERFECT!

Got a new phone and lost the links to the maps….
Fyi -4 hours at tmobile

Can someone post the links?

I think the NWS should adopt this new issuance of winter storm headlines. What do you all think?

MattD41 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:06 pm Got a new phone and lost the links to the maps….
Fyi -4 hours at tmobile

Can someone post the links?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

https://www.pivotalweather.com/

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

These will keep you busy!

Les Madden!!! Has a good ring to it !! I can just imagine this being Les with the GFS and Euro in front of him and doing a breakdown analysis

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:10 pm I think the NWS should adopt this new issuance of winter storm headlines. What do you all think?


LOL.jpg

Only if we stay in the liquor headline. Of course this counts during grilling season in the spring and summer