Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:16 am Good Morning Les. Great Post and the CMC has come closer to the GFS for next week in stalling out the front. The GFS is usually better in the summer especially when the tropics are involved. Saying that the tropics are still in that sleepy mode and trying to wake up but having a hard time. The front itself is not the strongest in the world and not sure the tropics are ready to make an impact. May be one of those times where we sort of split the difference and have the front close enough to us through Wednesday. I would love to see some rain as the ground is by far the driest it has been all year and I will clean up the yard this weekend because some of the early leaves are falling and you can tell we are headed for fall.

Good morning Tim and thank you! To me it depends on the tropics with regards to hanging up the front near us. Sure the front could stall over Central KY if the tropics do not flare up and that would put our S counties close enough for a scattered storm on Wed / Thurs. It'll be interesting to see which solution wins the model battle. Many more model battles to come, we're just getting started!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:28 am There have been a couple of isolated cells around.

Amazingly one went right through my hood this morning around 4:00-4:30. A few claps of thunder and 0.15"!

Looks to me like the GFS has gone to the EU side over the last 24 hrs and advancing the front well south of us, then stalling near the coastal states

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:28 am There have been a couple of isolated cells around.

Amazingly one went right through my hood this morning around 4:00-4:30. A few claps of thunder and 0.15"!

Awesome Mike! Glad to see someone who normally gets skipped actually get a little something.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:51 am Looks to me like the GFS has gone to the EU side over the last 24 hrs and advancing the front well south of us, then stalling near the coastal states

6Z run shows that well. The tropics eventually do get going, but it's too late to impact hat particular front. The seasonal trends this summer has been to move fronts thru. Some have stalled out of course but most haven't due to the stronger then normal polar westerlies. So with that stated, it's hard not to go with that forecast to be honest. Def continue to have likely POPS for Monday and Tuesday. Not sure if we need to keep a chance POP in for Wed morning or not, but we've got plenty of time to hone in on the timing.

Les, at the current pace we are on, you and I might be cutting grass in mid December. I have never seen grass grow like this in late august like it’s late April

Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:58 am Les, at the current pace we are on, you and I might be cutting grass in mid December. I have never seen grass grow like this in late august like it’s late April

I've never mowed that late but I have ground up leaves that late before unfortunately.

12Z GFS is in perfect alignment with the Euro now for the 2nd or 3rd run in a row getting the front thru the area then the tropics fire. So as long as the data changes, we have a slight chance POP for this afternoon, then likely Monday and Tuesday then that should be a wrap with some slightly cooler and less humid air coming in for mid to late next week. Labor Day weekend may also end up being nice too, but it's a little ways out there yet to feel very comfortable making that prediction. So far though, the data looks good!

A few showers are building along the river where the frontal boundary is. Good luck folks!

Light rain here as a cell moves overhead. won't see a bunch of rain but enough to dampen things down a bit.

Edit: Heavy rain now...

20% chance of rain and boom, heavy rain. :D

Line has passed my hood now. A few lingering drops and some thunder but the worst of it is over. Will report my total later.

12Z Euro continues to blow the front thru Tuesday evening / night then we're in for some nice weather for a bit.

Rainfall amounts:

CVG - 0.02"
Me - 0.27"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.05"

The front has slipped to the S of the Metro with isolated storms over the SE and the bulk of the action now over Central KY. Look for patchy dense fog in the morning otherwise a nice day in the mid 80s. A 90 is possible on Sunday, we'll see. Then we get wet next week. Hope everyone has a nice weekend!

Good morning everyone! Models are in excellent agreement and confidence is high with the upcoming forecast. To begin, thanks to the front from yesterday, dews are in the mid 60s with highs today under sunny skies in the mid 80s. For Sunday, dews come back up as do the temps. Can we hit 90 for only the 2nd time in August? We've got a chance since CVG only got 0.02" on Fri. PM CU development and a 20% chance of an isolated pop up storm could be the killers on hitting 90, we'll see.

Likely POPS Monday and Tuesday with our next cold front. Some folks who see multiple rounds will get over an inch of rain with this system. Others may wind up in that 0.25" to 0.50" range.

High pressure, cooler temps and much lower humidity greets us for the second half of the week. Going with the L80s Wed, and the U70s Thurs and Fri with lows in the mid to U50s! For the big Holiday Weekend, going dry for Sat and Sun with the low and mid 80s. Chance POPS required on Labor Day with return flow behind the high as the Gulf begins to re-open for business.

Good evening all,

I made a weather video for you all talking about our weather over the next week, including Labor Day! We're trackin' tropics along with a La Nina update. Enjoy!

Enjoyed the video Les,

Quickly advancing into peak Hurricane season and still all quiet in the Atlantic. Saving precious Jet fuel for the Hurricane hunters.

LaNina rockin and rolling along, easterlies along the equator are ripping and will overpower any advancement of the MJO in its eastward movement, which coincides with a lackluster Atlantic tropical activity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:06 am Enjoyed the video Les,

Quickly advancing into peak Hurricane season and still all quiet in the Atlantic. Saving precious Jet fuel for the Hurricane hunters.

Good morning and thanks! We've got something potentially cooking with a 70% chance in the next 5 days but nothing earth shattering yet.

90 or bust today folks at CVG let's see what happens there. Maybe a couple of pop up's too. Then we'll see what happens with coverage next week with the front. Then ahhhh.... Gorgeous weather upcoming...

Great video Les!! Seems to me over the past couple of weeks the Euro is doing somewhat better than the Gfs. Many times that is not the case in the summer. These late summer fronts do have a hard time in bringing much in the way of rainfall unless you get a nice source from the GOM. Saying that I believe the Euro is probably the correct model to use this week which gives us a little more rainfall Monday and Tuesday. Going .025-.50 for most folks but again its summer and some folks will probably get less than 1/10th. Concerning late in the week and going to be beautiful and though I believe the coolest of air will be off to the northeast we can still have highs in that 78-82 range and lows 58-60 which is wonderful this time of year.

Here is my rant of the day lol. Forget if I saw this on one of the websites but big story was an extreme drought in China. So I went and looked at how the country was doing in terms of rainfall and once again the headline should of read near to above normal rainfall this year with one area very dry.

Do we hit 90 today and I am going no. The reason is the dew points are rising so my guess 88 seems like a good number though the heat index will be in the 90's. Today will be the last chance though for a 90 degree day for at least a week and then we are into the start of September.

Good morning Tim! Thanks! I saw that graphic too about China and the near normal rainfall as a whole. The size of the drought in our country seems to be bigger in size then the drought area in China. But what do I know? The media just is awful these days anymore but I digress.

I'm up to 80 now, CVG 78 as of the 10am reading. 12Z ILN sounding shows a high of 87 at Wilmington today. So 89-90 is possible at CVG unless PM CU development and / or an isolated storm occurs. Only about a 20% chance expected for today.