Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:49 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:41 pm GFS was probably the best forecast model for our area for round one this morning from 12 to 24 hrs ago, with the other models playing catch-up in the trend for practically nothing for CVGland and points north. If your more than 50 miles away from the frontal boundary you're not going ro see much rain at all. You don't get the dynamics and you get the blow -off clouds from the good stuff holding down instability for even pop-up storms. Hopefully we have round two actually show up tonight for the tri-state as long as the front is nearby

Sun's been out here for the last 45 mins. Can't believe that a flood watch was issued and we barely got over 0.10" of rain. Even the new trends keep a lot of the heaviest rains even tonight south, but CVG does get at least a little something out of it. IMO the Flood Watch really isn't needed for folks near and north of the river. The I-64 corridor took it in the chin today as mentioned.

I think cvglands next 50/50 shot at showers is pre-dawn tomorrow. How large the cluster will be is in question and of course the northern extent.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:49 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:41 pm GFS was probably the best forecast model for our area for round one this morning from 12 to 24 hrs ago, with the other models playing catch-up in the trend for practically nothing for CVGland and points north. If your more than 50 miles away from the frontal boundary you're not going ro see much rain at all. You don't get the dynamics and you get the blow -off clouds from the good stuff holding down instability for even pop-up storms. Hopefully we have round two actually show up tonight for the tri-state as long as the front is nearby

Sun's been out here for the last 45 mins. Can't believe that a flood watch was issued and we barely got over 0.10" of rain. Even the new trends keep a lot of the heaviest rains even tonight south, but CVG does get at least a little something out of it. IMO the Flood Watch really isn't needed for folks near and north of the river. The I-64 corridor took it in the chin today as mentioned.

I think cvglands next 50/50 shot at showers is pre-dawn tomorrow. How large the cluster will be is in question and of course the northern extent.

Agreed and it's the northern extent that I am concerned about.

A small cluster of light showers in the area , heavier clusters scattered off to the west in the better LLJ. Still uncertain if the good stuff holds together for SWohio later this morning

Radar indeed shows the heaver cells holding on as the action moves into the region. Finally, we should actually see a wet day with the flood watch now being extended until 8pm this evening.

0.24" at CVG so far is the event total as of 7am this morning.

Getting a good downpour finally here!

Just a few things guys... the rain threat today and tomorrow of course. Lingering action early Friday. Dry on Saturday then on Sunday, the front comes back north and we get small chances Sun with those chances growing into early next week. Once we get into the first few days of August, GFS and Euro too turns hot again. GFS continues to show ridiculous heat that has not been panning out this summer but another round of 90s appears quite possible in early August.

Some nice soaking rains here mixed with thunder.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:18 am Some nice soaking rains here mixed with thunder.

Radar looks great for those who have been missing out like CVG, DAY, etc. Should be a nice soaking rainfall today. Just hope we don't get too much of a good thing. 1-2" would be a ok for my hood.

Flood warnings issued for some IND counties that border ours in SE IN.

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Bartholomew County in central Indiana...
Northwestern Decatur County in central Indiana...
Southeastern Shelby County in central Indiana...

* Until 1130 AM EDT.

* At 822 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

The boys have this to say for today:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Warm air advection pattern will move across the southern half of
the forecast area this morning associated with a west-
southwesterly low level jet. Current convection in south-central
IN at the nose of the LLJ is progressive in nature with around
an inch of QPE. Expect this to continue sliding into northern
Kentucky during the pre-dawn hours.

Current soils, as illustrated by 1-hr flash flood guidance in
the 2+" range, should be able to accept 1-2" of rainfall today.
Therefore, am not overly alarmed about focused flash flood
potential with this first round of precipitation... however,
have decided to extend the flood watch through the rest of today
to avoid messaging an expiration of the headline while still
expecting increasing flooding concerns heading into later this
evening through Thursday.

High-resolution guidance is showing a decreasing trend in
precipitation coverage after noon, so may see some breaks in
the low clouds along with some breezy conditions later today.
Highs will reach into the low to mid 80s.

0.22" here so far.

Just checked mine and so far 0.21" since midnight (Today's total so far).

Fizzled out as it was moving in here. Waiting to see what the blob on the border is going to do.

Wow. What a dreary week weather wise. Bring back the sunshine and heat

No heavy downpours here, but a nice moderate rainfall the last couple hours or so

Continuing to see moderate rainfall to heavy at times with thunder and lightning. Nothing severe at all just a good old fashioned heavy rain event in progress... Glad we are seeing it too as I mentioned earlier, because if the long term indications are right, the heat will be back for a while, so this rainfall is very much needed in preparation for this next round of heat that is due in sometime during the first week of August.

CVG event total as of 10am: 0.54"

Frontal boundary finally flexed a bit north currently right over cvgland .

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana and Northern Kentucky,
including the following counties, in Southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Franklin IN, Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland. In Northern Kentucky,
Boone, Carroll and Gallatin.

* WHEN...Until 145 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Water over roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1031 AM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1
inch are possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Batesville, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Carrollton, Aurora,
Rising Sun, Hidden Valley, Bright, Versailles, Milan, Vevay,
Osgood, Warsaw, Dillsboro, Oldenburg, Shawnee, Moores Hill,
Florence, Patriot and Lake Santee.

Hopefully you guys are staying dry. Down in Gulf Shores, Alabama it is sunny and beautiful.

Right at 1/2 inch..
Nice rain.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:59 am Hopefully you guys are staying dry. Down in Gulf Shores, Alabama it is sunny and beautiful.

I'm heading to Panama City tomorrow night or Friday. Hopefully 65 is not to backed up.

Some of the heavier rains the past hour or so have been from Falmouth to Maysville line with repeated rounds of t-showers

0.89" now at CVG - event total as of 11am.