Absolute Vorticity

Looks like the 12Z GFS also holds the bulk of the action off on Wed until the afternoon hours.

12z Euro is fairly similar so if this holds... we are dry Wed morning and await storms in the early afternoon onwards time frame. We shall see as always... plenty of time to keep an eye open on this next system.

Only 61 currently at CVG... 65 may even be tough today. 57 from 1894 is the record cold high for today so no chance there.

Some annoying light rain in Indian Hill, grr

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 2:25 pm Some annoying light rain in Indian Hill, grr

Per radar, I could even see sprinkles this far to the west! Ugh... that pesky low near Atlanta has become a real pain in our asses today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 2:25 pm Some annoying light rain in Indian Hill, grr

Upgrading to moderate shower

Still overcast but the skies are trying to brighten... It kind of hurts my eyes. We're not used to that.

If this was already posted , sorry


National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...Wind damage in the Sayler Park area caused by a Gustnado...

Around 510 pm on Saturday, May 21, 2022, an eyewitness filmed a
swirling column of air over the Ohio River, just offshore from the
Sayler Park area of Hamilton County, Ohio. It appears that this
swirling column of air moved onto land and then produced damage
across a portion of Sayler Park. The damage was primarily located
over Catalpa Road, Gracely Drive and Fernbank Avenue. Numerous trees
were damaged, some completely knocked over or uprooted and thrown
onto homes and power lines. Based on pictures from the damage, winds
were likely 70 to 80 mph.

The cause of the damage on land is being classified as a gustnado.
By the National Weather Service definition, a gustnado is a small
whirlwind which forms as an eddy in thunderstorm outflows. They do
not connect with any cloud-base rotation and are not tornadoes. Like
dust devils, some stronger gustnadoes can cause damage.

This particular gustnado was not directly associated with a
thunderstorm updraft. Doppler radar supports the assessment that this
gustnado formed on an outflow boundary several miles ahead of a
thunderstorm. The gustnado was observed over the Ohio River, and then
produced damage in the Sayler Park area before dissipating.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the Hamilton
County, Ohio Emergency Management Agency, the City of Cincinnati and
several eyewitnesses who shared videos and photos for their
assistance in making this determination.

I think this is a video of above

Bgoney... I saw that posted on social media yesterday but I was at my Brother's for a while, so I didn't get a chance to post it on our forum! It isn't often we get a water spout on the Ohio River then it moves onshore to become a tornado. Pretty cool stuff! The ocean or the Great Lakes are much more common to see these in the sparing and fall, but I think they are much more rare to occur on a smaller body of water like a river or a smaller inland lake.

Another round of light rain here.

Well folks... the forecast for today was okay for about the Western 1/2 of the area. For the Eastern half a complete failure. Radar still shows some light shower activity even as of this post, lingering over the SE county area. Sheesh... just can't catch a break in that area today. The impacts from the low to our south has really influenced the weather over portions of the area today much more then expected. More clouds... showers and cooler temps then models indicated by a few degrees.

For tomorrow... if we can see a lot of sun, then U70s to near 80. If clouds are slower to exit, then the mid 70s will work. I am expecting everyone to be dry tomorrow. I sure as hell hope so! Then everyone gets wet Wed / Thurs.

63 was it for me today... CVG 62 as of the 5pm climate report.

And speaking of Sayler Park, that's one of the areas that was hit hard during the April 3rd, 1974 Super Outbreak.

Currently 57 here in G'ville.

A nice Tues in store today for us to get caught up on our yards. I will be doing that after work. Rain and storms possible Wed with the warm front and Thurs with the cold front. A marginal risk is in place for both days so of course we are watching it for you. Showers and only the 60s, maybe 70 lingers for Fri then I think the Holiday Weekend is great with summertime warmth rebuilding into the area. 70s Sat, low to mid 80s Sun then mid to U80s on Memorial Day is my current call for the region.

My low was 51 this morning... I am going to miss these 50s in the morning once real summer hits.

Looking at this next system a bit more in detail... I think Thurs may have better coverage and heavier amounts vs the warm front on Wed. Also, for Fri, we get the upper low moving in. GFS wants to ruin our Sat lingering it around while the Euro has never wanted any part of it and clears us out much faster. Go Euro!

48 for my low

One of the chillier lows I found was the Darke Co airport. 43

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/24/stormt ... pdate-524/

Some progress in the all important spring planting season in the US. Still not where it needs to be given all the impending food shortages across the globe



As of May 22, 72% of the corn crop is planted, up from 49% complete as of May 15. The five-year average for late May is 79% complete.


The second slowest for the date in more than 25 years. The 2014-2018 average (to avoid 2019) was 85%.

North Dakota is the furthest behind, with only 20% planted versus a five-year average of 46% by late May. Minnesota is 60% planted, which compares to a five-year average of 86%.


For soybeans, 50% of the U.S. crop has been planted. That compares to a five-year average of 55%.




Again, Minnesota and North Dakota are the furthest behind their average planting paces for soybeans. Meanwhile, 12 of the top 18 soybean-growing states are ahead of average in soybean planting pace.


Only 49% of the U.S. spring wheat crop is in the ground. The five-year average is 83% by late May. The states furthest behind average include Minnesota and North Dakota, which produce two-thirds of the crop

This is not good news... costs will go up more as a result which no one wants or needs. Sigh... Hope we can make it till November. On a more positive note... enjoy today folks! Nice seeing the sun out for a change.

12Z GFS finally gave into the Euro for this weekend. Showers do end Fri evening as the upper low moves out. Sat is dry like the Euro was showing.

So here's what to expect: For Wed, possible morning showers with a weakening MCS. How much heating do we see for afternoon and evening pop up's as the warm front comes in? Likely action expected on Thurs with the front and then showers and cooler Friday with the upper low. Isolated severe wx possible... heavy rains the more likely issue due to localized flooding.

12Z Euro has the upper low over Eastern OH / KY on Sat morning so that's good that it gets out of here in the nick of time!