Absolute Vorticity

Whose ready to get NAM'ed in the next 30-45mins? I feel one coming on!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:37 pm Whose ready to get NAM'ed in the next 30-45mins? I feel one coming on!

NAM should be interesting that’s for sure.

Les, check out the video I posted in the bengals Super Bowl thread. I think you will like it

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:48 pm Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.

.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!

I like that call especially the 4-6 inches of snow.

So my Paint skills are poor - but here is my first take in words LOL

** Foot Plus from Springfield IL - Champaign/Urbana IL - Lafayette IN - Ft Wayne IN - Toledo OH
** 6 to 12 inches north of line from St Louis MO - Terre Haute IN - Indy - Sidney OH - Mansfield OH
** 4 to 8 inches snow and perhaps 1/4 to 1/2" ice north of Cape Girardeau MO - Evansville IN - Cincy metro - Cambridge OH - including Dayton and Columbus -- (NOTE: sleet may lower totals in these areas!!)
** South of here is less certain - prob a few inches of snow with a thick layer of ice beneath it.

Whatcha think?

Pete1 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:37 pm Whose ready to get NAM'ed in the next 30-45mins? I feel one coming on!

NAM should be interesting that’s for sure.

Les, check out the video I posted in the bengals Super Bowl thread. I think you will like it

I'll check it out on my home PC later.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:42 pm So my Paint skills are poor - but here is my first take in words LOL

** Foot Plus from Springfield IL - Champaign/Urbana IL - Lafayette IN - Ft Wayne IN - Toledo OH
** 6 to 12 inches north of line from St Louis MO - Terre Haute IN - Indy - Sidney OH - Mansfield OH
** 4 to 8 inches snow and perhaps 1/4 to 1/2" ice north of Cape Girardeau MO - Evansville IN - Cincy metro - Cambridge OH - including Dayton and Columbus -- (NOTE: sleet may lower totals in these areas!!)
** South of here is less certain - prob a few inches of snow with a thick layer of ice beneath it.

Whatcha think?

That's a fine call Mike taking into account a blending of the warmer and colder guidance. It's really all you can do. Solid call!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:37 pm Whose ready to get NAM'ed in the next 30-45mins? I feel one coming on!

I'll make my call after being NAM'ed

Lol Les. With the data today my guess is the NWS offices are trying to decide on whether to change some of the watches to a warning. So far I believe with what the models showed everything shifted about 20 miles southeast. So if the system can stay at a decent strength and not get out of hand we look good for a mess on Thursday. Still believe frz/rain and snow are the two main types on Thursday and I know models like to throw out the sleet but it is more rare than models show and most of the time its with very dynamic systems where the pressure is lower. May be dead wrong on the sleet but that is how I see it playing out. Sleet is like the happy uncle because he is fun but sometimes you wish he would stay away.

BTW I am making my call on Friday Morning at 4am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:46 pm BTW I am making my call on Friday Morning at 4am

Early in the game but so far the Nam is a little stronger and further east at this point.

Lunken hit 60 - it's 57 here in my hood.

61 at CVG currently.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:46 pm BTW I am making my call on Friday Morning at 4am

I'll make my call (as to what already happened) Saturday morning at 8am.

So 8-12” in Sandusky, yes? They have people thinking the next blizzard of ‘78 up here! Lol
Calling 18”

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:55 pm 61 at CVG currently.

It’s 49 up in Sandusky!

Blogsdon wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:02 pm So 8-12” in Sandusky, yes? They have people thinking the next blizzard of ‘78 up here! Lol
Calling 18”

Nothing like that storm at all. That was such a deep low pressure and almost hard to describe unless you lived at the time.

18Z NAM coming in a bump NW of 12Z. CVG changes over around 4am Thurs morning.

850s are toastier than 12z

Indy extending their winter storm warning further south

Nam is a tad stronger but we are talking minor but you never want to have a trend start and go the wrong way.

WOW 850s are really warm so far

Some ice but a big ole sleet storm S of I-70 to about CVG then ice storm Southern counties / SE Crew. Manly rain S of I-64 in KY.

18z NAM big ole sleet fest south of 70

850s rise on Thurs up to 6 degrees Cel at CVG. Wow! Surface temps in the upper 20s.