Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:16 am GFS for next Mon/Tues giving Tenn valley 5-9" of rainfall , there is a chance that could shift northward in the coming days

A lot of us remember via news viral the flood that occurred in Waverly, TN last year.

That last piece on the 12Z GFS next Thurs night and Fri is interesting with frozen precip and snow possible once we get past the rain from the first couple of rounds.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:05 pm That last piece on the 12Z GFS next Thurs night and Fri is interesting with frozen precip and snow possible once we get past the rain from the first couple of rounds.

Cmc as well

Pieces 2 and 3 are both wintry on the 12Z CMC. But we know how woefully cold biased it has been. I can certainly see rain Tues and Wed but sometime Thurs / Fri, I am on the look out for wintry weather at the moment. I wouldn't rule that out currently. GEFS today shows a colder look also but even it too was too wintry with this current system and was also too cold. GFS was too far north, CMC and GEFS south. Euro actually has done the best with this particular system we are tracking today. That doesn't mean it will do well next time but with SW flow events Euro is typically better where the GFS does better with northern stream events.

Light rain still ongoing here. CVG up to 0.44" as of 12pm. Flood advisory also in effect until 3:15pm. Mixed precip over NW IN with snow in Central ILL headed NE towards Chicago and Southern Lower Michigan later today and tonight.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:19 pm Pieces 2 and 3 are both wintry on the 12Z CMC. But we know how woefully cold biased it has been. I can certainly see rain Tues and Wed but sometime Thurs / Fri, I am on the look out for wintry weather at the moment. I wouldn't rule that out currently. GEFS today shows a colder look also but even it too was too wintry with this current system and was also too cold. GFS was too far north, CMC and GEFS south. Euro actually has done the best with this particular system we are tracking today. That doesn't mean it will do well next time but with SW flow events Euro is typically better where the GFS does better with northern stream events.

Les the Euro finally got its act together on Monday with this system but even it took awhile to figure this one out. Had the big move south over the weekend but moved north earlier this week. So I give all the models a B because all had the system but their were missteps by all 3 models including the gfs being to far north and the cmc was closer with the track than the gfs but had the thermals wrong until about Tuesday. Next week will be fun and I will keep tabs down in SC

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:19 pm Pieces 2 and 3 are both wintry on the 12Z CMC. But we know how woefully cold biased it has been. I can certainly see rain Tues and Wed but sometime Thurs / Fri, I am on the look out for wintry weather at the moment. I wouldn't rule that out currently. GEFS today shows a colder look also but even it too was too wintry with this current system and was also too cold. GFS was too far north, CMC and GEFS south. Euro actually has done the best with this particular system we are tracking today. That doesn't mean it will do well next time but with SW flow events Euro is typically better where the GFS does better with northern stream events.

Les the Euro finally got its act together on Monday with this system but even it took awhile to figure this one out. Had the big move south over the weekend but moved north earlier this week. So I give all the models a B because all had the system but their were missteps by all 3 models including the gfs being to far north and the cmc was closer with the track than the gfs but had the thermals wrong until about Tuesday. Next week will be fun and I will keep tabs down in SC

Hey Time , I agree to a point . I got to give credit when it comes to crunch time , 3 or 2 days out . So i give a slight edge to the EU, this time. BUt we all know that certainly hasn't been the case for our previous events

I agree w/Bgoney.. GFS has been doing well until now. With the change in the pattern and we are seeing more overrunning and SW flow events, let's see how the Euro does with next week. I'm going to give it a little more weight.

12Z Euro has mostly rain for both waves of precip next week. I hope that changes...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:47 pm 12Z Euro has mostly rain for both waves of precip next week. I hope that changes...

And im sure it will , concerning the late week event . Seems like we are on the tipping point of all scenarios for that one. I could see flooding rains continuing but just as easily I could see a wintry event happening.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:47 pm 12Z Euro has mostly rain for both waves of precip next week. I hope that changes...

And im sure it will , concerning the late week event . Seems like we are on the tipping point of all scenarios for that one. I could see flooding rains continuing but just as easily I could see a wintry event happening.

Yep... you really can argue either scenario. We've got the cold highs we want in that 1045 to 1050 Mb range, but the orientation of the jet and the position of the SE Ridge are critical.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:47 pm 12Z Euro has mostly rain for both waves of precip next week. I hope that changes...

And im sure it will , concerning the late week event . Seems like we are on the tipping point of all scenarios for that one. I could see flooding rains continuing but just as easily I could see a wintry event happening.

Yep... you really can argue either scenario. We've got the cold highs we want in that 1045 to 1050 Mb range, but the orientation of the jet and the position of the SE Ridge are critical.

Guys I believe the speed of each system is critical. If we can get the first system through and have the high come pretty far south and then get a low to quickly works its way eastward this gives us a better chance that some cold will still be around. Getting a high of 1045 to 1050 is great and how much snow cover will be to the west next after the first system. If we can get a nice snow pack to our northwest that can help bring the high a little further south.

That is a good point also Tim.,.. wave spacing will play a role in terms of 500 MB heights ahead of each wave.

1.12" here in the books with plenty more to come!

Kind of a model team effort. I think the Euro won for the low track. For precip, those 2" GFS amounts from the last 2 days could end up verifying.

A deepening 1000 MB low over Western KY will track between CVG and LEX based on pressure falls.

FLOOD WARNING out for the entire Tri-state!

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio, including the following counties, in Southeast
Indiana, Dearborn, Ohio and Switzerland. In Northern Kentucky,
Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Owen
and Pendleton. In Southwest Ohio, Hamilton.

* WHEN...Until 100 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 301 PM EST, radar indicated heavy rain moving into the
area. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
the warned area. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible into this
evening.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Fort
Thomas, Newport, Edgewood, Alexandria, Elsmere, Fort
Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Taylor Mill,
Bellevue, Fort Wright, Dayton, Lawrenceburg, Ludlow and
Carrollton.

Just hit 1.00

Will be checking my gauge somewhat later as I plan to bring it inside whenever the changeover boundary gets more near Darke Co.

I know its a bit over a week from now but what are models showing for Sat Feb 26th? My dad has a 2nd time rescheduled "appt" with his sister to take care of some business in Indiana.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 3:18 pm Kind of a model team effort. I think the Euro won for the low track. For precip, those 2" GFS amounts from the last 2 days could end up verifying.

Interesting Les and another thing about the precip totals is the stronger winds really has not shown up this afternoon. What happens many times is the wind is energy but it can be transferred to other areas like heavy rains. We see this quite often in the winter and early spring where the models want to show severe weather but we end up with heavy rain instead.

Approaching 2" now... 55 degrees and heavy rain in progress Standing water and little rivers thru the side and backyard. Wish the faucet would turn off. We're good!

2.09” so far!!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 3:18 pm Kind of a model team effort. I think the Euro won for the low track. For precip, those 2" GFS amounts from the last 2 days could end up verifying.

Interesting Les and another thing about the precip totals is the stronger winds really has not shown up this afternoon. What happens many times is the wind is energy but it can be transferred to other areas like heavy rains. We see this quite often in the winter and early spring where the models want to show severe weather but we end up with heavy rain instead.

Of course the squall line is coming through at the moment with the heavy winds and rain but at least its not going to be a long-lived wind event

18Z GFS keeping it interesting late next week.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:08 pm Will be checking my gauge somewhat later as I plan to bring it inside whenever the changeover boundary gets more near Darke Co.

I know its a bit over a week from now but what are models showing for Sat Feb 26th? My dad has a 2nd time rescheduled "appt" with his sister to take care of some business in Indiana.

Thurs and Fri is the question mark. GFS says winter storm Euro says all rain Dry and cold for Sat currently.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:30 pm 18Z GFS keeping it interesting late next week.

Les does the southeast ridge get beaten down enough by the first system is important as well. Especially this time of year as the southeast can send the warmth quickly into the area but if its beaten down some and the system behind it is moving in rather quickly the better chances for winter weather