Absolute Vorticity

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:53 pm Les your forecast looks good for the remainder of February. Still looking at next month and I agree no doubt one more chance of some winter weather but maybe two but just a little early to talk about the second shot of cold. My forecast back in the fall was to have Feb and March give us an early start to spring and dead wrong on that call

After the brief warm up, models show the -EPO returning by months end and into the 1st week plus of March with a deep trough over the Central and Eastern US. I am inclined to believe it per MJO cold phases.

that is what i am seeing also. it looks like we get a break till the very end of this month. then game on again going into early March. winter is not over. at least not till mid - late March probably

I totally agree Charles. That has been my thought process too.

Some videos that dive into the longer term. Snow lovers, rejoice!

The GFS is looking interesting towards the end of next week with a system producing rain and heavy snow for the OV. This one ushers in the cold pattern again for early March.

I was going to ask what your thoughts were on the time period of March 1-3

Pepper wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:36 pm I was going to ask what your thoughts were on the time period of March 1-3

To me it looks cold. Snow chances TBD.

I have seen hints of this storm for awhile now that has caught my attention for some reason not sure why as I absolutely do not know anything about models. Lol

Pepper wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:49 pm I have seen hints of this storm for awhile now that has caught my attention for some reason not sure why as I absolutely do not know anything about models. Lol

I'm watching around the 27-28th then again sometime in the first 10 days of March as there should be a couple more chances in there.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:18 pm

Pepper wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:49 pm I have seen hints of this storm for awhile now that has caught my attention for some reason not sure why as I absolutely do not know anything about models. Lol

I'm watching around the 27-28th then again sometime in the first 10 days of March as there should be a couple more chances in there.

Currently for the 27th e.g. it looks mild with low 40s and a chance of rain showers. I hope it stays that way for that day as I'll be with my Dad for an eye appt. Then on the 28th my folks will be going to Indianapolis as Dad has a med appt there, too.

CVG reached 21, DAY 20 and CMH 22 on Wed.

Currently at 9 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 20 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 7:01 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:18 pm

Pepper wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:49 pm I have seen hints of this storm for awhile now that has caught my attention for some reason not sure why as I absolutely do not know anything about models. Lol

I'm watching around the 27-28th then again sometime in the first 10 days of March as there should be a couple more chances in there.

Currently for the 27th e.g. it looks mild with low 40s and a chance of rain showers. I hope it stays that way for that day as I'll be with my Dad for an eye appt. Then on the 28th my folks will be going to Indianapolis as Dad has a med appt there, too.

I am currently expecting rain ending as some flakes and not a big deal at this time. Every so often, the OP GFS has a stronger low so we et dynamic cooling for a good thumping of snow. I have seen this show up twice on various OP GFS runs. It means nothing unless we gain more model support as time goes on.

Hey Les, while it's quiet in the weather, I wanted to thank you for posting the videos from Brian, Travis, and DT and others. I, for one, enjoy watching them! So thanks!!!

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 8:57 am Hey Les, while it's quiet in the weather, I wanted to thank you for posting the videos from Brian, Travis, and DT and others. I, for one, enjoy watching them! So thanks!!!

You're very welcome Bo! There's a lot of click bait YouTube channels out there but I try and only post content from real Mets and not Wanna-be Mets, you know? There is so much misinformation out there on social media nowadays it'll make your head spin!

Normals for the last week of February . Should get near normal Sunday and then slightly above to finish out

The last time we had a temp at or above 50 was back on January 6th so it's been a while since we have felt some warmth around here. It will feel nice as long as it isn't windy next week. I think it should be tranquil until Thursday or Friday.

Clouds helped to keep us in the mid teens this morning. Otherwise 5 was my thinking had the clouds been able to clear out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2025 4:23 am The last time we had a temp at or above 50 was back on January 6th so it's been a while since we have felt some warmth around here. It will feel nice as long as it isn't windy next week. I think it should be tranquil until Thursday or Friday.

Don’t forget February 3 when we set a record high of 70!

i ended up getting 1" here from the upper level low that swung through here yesterday afternoon. was actually a little bit more then i was expecting.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2025 11:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2025 4:23 am The last time we had a temp at or above 50 was back on January 6th so it's been a while since we have felt some warmth around here. It will feel nice as long as it isn't windy next week. I think it should be tranquil until Thursday or Friday.

Don’t forget February 3 when we set a record high of 70!

Oh that's right! I forgot about that lol Thanks for the correction. The correct thing to say now is that we've only had a handful of above avg days in January and also in Feb too.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2025 11:39 am i ended up getting 1" here from the upper level low that swung through here yesterday afternoon. was actually a little bit more then i was expecting.

What is your seasonal avg? Have you only received 24" so far? Like we are beating you??? That has to be an extremely rare feat too.

A little above average temps for the end of the month would be welcome! This is from the station at our farm in Ripley showing where we stand as of now... with an average temp over the past week of 21.4; 33.3 for all of February; and 29.5 as the average for the year. My electric bills at the farm have been running almost 50% higher than last year as it is a heat pump/electric backup system. It has been kind of depressing looking at the smart meter data and seeing what I am paying per day when it gets really cold. The one day that reached 71.1 was glorious (and cheap)! In town, some grass at the edge of the parking lot at my office has been under snow/ice since the big storm in early January as all of the snow was pushed there and it survived the warm up at the beginning of this month. I'm ready for spring and a straight shot to summer would be even better!

I think the 1st week of March has a chance then it is on to severe wx most likely at some point in March. MJO Phase 2 can be good for severe wx in the early spring. March and April esp for tornado outbreaks and La Nina's. Although one could say ENSO cold neutral too lol I expect a wet and stormy spring.