Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:18 pm The sref will be interesting as the last one we had some totals nearing 18 inches and yes a handful in the 13-16 range. I believe some of that is sleet related but if somehow we can stay snow for the duration a foot of snow possible and not many storms of double digits around these parts.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pm Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pmmc-hammer.jpg

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pmmc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:25 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pm Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

MattyD wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:27 pmQpf?

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pmmc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

I think now is the right time! My brother had a pair of parachute pants in the 80s! Who didn't? It was the 70s version of the belle-bottoms in popularity!

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:25 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pm Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pmmc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

I think now is the right time! My brother had a pair of parachute pants in the 80s! Who didn't? It was the 70s version of the belle-bottoms in popularity!

That is funny to mentioned belle-bottoms lol. At one time in my late teens and early 20's I wore a size 26 in jeans.

MattyD wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:32 pm I gotta think with that much qpf ….. this is a 12-14 inch storm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:25 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pm Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

Great post Tim! To be realistic... we need the thermals to stay cold enough and have the deform band work out via a slower transfer on Monday. If you can get a 1000-1004 MB low into SE KY or NE TN then hang on into WV, we will get buried!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pmmc-hammer.jpg

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pmmc-hammer.jpg

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:25 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:24 pm Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

Great post Tim! To be realistic... we need the thermals to stay cold enough and have the deform band work out via a slower transfer on Monday. If you can get a 1000-1004 MB low into SE KY or NE TN then hang on into WV, we will get buried!

Les you are correct and if we get the slow movement and have that storm head up towards Corbin this is a wonderful path. We also talk about the northeast wind and this can help in keeping the warm layer at bay some and it can help in certain situations an hurt in others.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:33 pm So far... 0Z HRRR is a tick south of 18Z at 31 hours.

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:30 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 pm

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:13 pm What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!

Thanks!

Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.

My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.

Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.

Thank you. Right now, I feel terrible. Can’t get much worse. I’m a kidney transplant recipient, so I’m immunosuppressed, and I get hit hard with these things. Doc called in Paxlovid, so hoping I feel better soon.

Here’s hoping for enough snow to call off Monday (and maybe even Tuesday!)..