Absolute Vorticity

Sorry folks... this topic should be unlocked now. I thought I had fixed it earlier, but nope. It is fixed now unless the Iranians or Russians mess with it again.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:05 pm Sorry folks... this topic should be unlocked now. I thought I had fixed it earlier, but nope. It is fixed now unless the Iranians or Russians mess with it again.

Thanks Les I thought the site was hacked and no more weather talk lol

CVG got to 82 and both DAY / CMH 84 today.

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Good morning! Been seeing some moderate rains this morning. Picked up around a quarter of an inch so far. Nothing severe is expected this morning. Then, we'll see how much activity can bubble up this afternoon ahead of the cold front. I still am not expecting much in our local area unless you're near / N of I-70. The further north you are, the higher your chances will be. Then I think a nice Thursday followed by one more round of rain / t-storms Thurs night into the day on Friday. That should be a wrap until next Tuesday rainfall wise.

The bulk of the rain is now SE of I-71 as the morning round continues to push off to the East. Most folks look to have picked up 0.10 to 0.30" range.

Good Morning and a nice thundershower as I post. Will check on the rain totals later but with this added thundershower probably going to be nearing 1/2 inch. Les your forecast looks good and I agree most if any severe weather will be I-70 north and still look out for a lone wolf everywhere else. Later Thursday should see another round of showers and thundershowers that last into Friday morning. Good thing for the most part getting the rain without much in the way of severe weather

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:24 am Good Morning and a nice thundershower as I post. Will check on the rain totals later but with this added thundershower probably going to be nearing 1/2 inch. Les your forecast looks good and I agree most if any severe weather will be I-70 north and still look out for a lone wolf everywhere else. Later Thursday should see another round of showers and thundershowers that last into Friday morning. Good thing for the most part getting the rain without much in the way of severe weather

I'm not a plant specialist or anything but I always like it when it rains at night more versus during the day. I think plants benefit more from it when it rains at night. I believe that more water can soak into the ground versus getting rain during the day when it is much milder out and you would see more evaporation. I could easily be wrong with this line of thinking but to me, this is a good thing that we have been seeing from a timing standpoint. Better for the plants, not as good for us weather geeks.

8am totals:

CVG - 0.23"
Me - 0.25"
Boone co Mesonet - 0.24"

Les I agree 100p/c. Many times during the summer you get those thundershowers mid-afternoon and they drop a nice inch or so in a short period of time but after it leaves the sun pops up and drys up some of the rain that fell. Also in the summer the ground usually has a period where the top layers are bone dry and heavy rain just runs off. Getting rain overnight is no doubt imo the best option. I know when watering plants and flowers I do this in the early morning or evening and this tends to keep the moisture around longer.

I saw those rain totals and will check mine here shortly but I know close to 1/2 inch after that last thundershower past.

.70 here
Pool temperature a balmy 71
Have a great day everyone.

Some really nice thoughts as of about 7am from the boys.... matches up with our thinking on here.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
There is a strong push from the models to limit any showers over
the region to the northern CWA, where thunder will be at a peak
from 19-23Z. Strong winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph will
make for a breezy day. Day 1 outlook did not agree with the
chance of precipitation as noted by surrounding forecast offices
including ILN. Our forecast this morning looks overdone when
compared to surrounding offices, but it felt too hasty for our
area to be cut that much that early.

Severe threat appears to be limited to CWA along and north of
the I-70 corridor, probably a little more north than along. As
per usual lately, model agreement is not so easy to come by. A
few note a strong decrease in this afternoon`s dewpoints, into
the mid and lower 50s which would lead to little activity if
realized. The negatively tilting trough crossing through
northwest Ohio has been gaining some speed when compared to
prior models. This suggests a very narrow corridor where
dynamics /could/ come in play with an equally narrow corridor of
moderate instability. This instability is primarily aloft and
any lower based storms would need to punch through a fairly
strong cap. Likewise, elevated storms that may develop will
have a difficult time bringing the bulk of their energy to the
surface, and the bulk of the energy available looks to be
modest at best.

All this being said, a slight chance of severe winds near 60 mph
could accompany the strongest storms for a brief window of time
this afternoon over the northern third of the CWA. Expect the
trend will be to reduce even more the threat and footprint of
storms as new models come in this morning.

Highs today will be in the 70s with breezy conditions.

That last thundershower boosted my total to 0.89. That is what a thundershower can add to the total

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:54 am That last thundershower boosted my total to 0.89. That is what a thundershower can add to the total

Awesome! One of the higher totals I have seen thus far.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:13 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:54 am That last thundershower boosted my total to 0.89. That is what a thundershower can add to the total

Awesome! One of the higher totals I have seen thus far.

For sure...only .15" up here.

Wonderful video by Brian and he mentioned the dew points and already near 60 in western Indiana but upper 40's in eastern Illinois so the dry air is coming in rather strong which is good in this case. This case some of the drier air is further south so that is why folks north and east of here have a somewhat better shot of seeing a severe storm or two but nothing widespread. I do like his call for Thursday night into Friday with a good chance of some storms that will mainly be heavy rain but some hail and yes strong winds are possible though the tornado threat rather low. How much rain and again I agree with Brian that 1 - 1 1/2 inches possible and again as always somebody may end up with 0.78 and somebody else 2.33 but his range looks good for most folks. Always a uptick in the 4a-9a range and though it will be raining before that if you are in an area where the rain is still coming down at that time you can get those upticks like this morning where I was in the correct area to get over 1/2 inch more than most folks because of a thundershower. Weekend will be more like those first true fall days with clouds in and out and temps in the 50's and lows in the 30's. Will need to watch for frost and yes plenty of moisture in the ground but just a little to early to see how clear we are and a lower wind and this would be mainly Sunday and Monday morning.

Latest update from the boys as of 11am:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

Looking at recent reflectivity data, storms being forced by the
cold front are starting to pop in western Indiana/ southwestern
Michigan. Satellite imagery depicts a wide dry slot moving into
our region at the time of this writing. Anticipating that this
insolation will help us destabilize a bit easier this
afternoon; ACARS out of IND supports this thinking.

12Z CAMs suggest that this line will swing through our area during
the mid afternoon hours extending through much of the CWA,
however, the greatest severe threat still appears to be along
and north of I-70 where forecast UH swaths gain intensity nearer
to central and eastern Ohio. With the conditional severe threat,
all hazards still remain on the table with MLCAPE of 1500+,
effective bulk shear values 40-45 kts, steepening lapse rates,
and subtle turning in the lowest levels. Any severe threat/
storms that do move through our region should have moved east by
evening hours- this looks to primarily be an afternoon show.

Outside of convection, gusty winds will move through the region
with the stronger pressure gradient and cold frontal passage.
For now, have highlighted this in the HWO.

Finally, continued high PWATs and wet vertical profiles will
result in effective rain rates, potentially leading to areas of
isolated flooding.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:39 am Wonderful video by Brian and he mentioned the dew points and already near 60 in western Indiana but upper 40's in eastern Illinois so the dry air is coming in rather strong which is good in this case. This case some of the drier air is further south so that is why folks north and east of here have a somewhat better shot of seeing a severe storm or two but nothing widespread. I do like his call for Thursday night into Friday with a good chance of some storms that will mainly be heavy rain but some hail and yes strong winds are possible though the tornado threat rather low. How much rain and again I agree with Brian that 1 - 1 1/2 inches possible and again as always somebody may end up with 0.78 and somebody else 2.33 but his range looks good for most folks. Always a uptick in the 4a-9a range and though it will be raining before that if you are in an area where the rain is still coming down at that time you can get those upticks like this morning where I was in the correct area to get over 1/2 inch more than most folks because of a thundershower. Weekend will be more like those first true fall days with clouds in and out and temps in the 50's and lows in the 30's. Will need to watch for frost and yes plenty of moisture in the ground but just a little to early to see how clear we are and a lower wind and this would be mainly Sunday and Monday morning.

It'll be close esp for rural areas. I am going with the upper 30s for CVG Sun and Mon mornings. So far, if that's as low as we go, there should not be any issues. If we get clear skies and light winds then of course the low to mid 30s would be possible and thus, more of a frost threat. As you perfectly stated Tim, it's a wait and see thing.

TOR Watch issued until 7pm EDT for Butler, Warren, and Clinton Co's on northward.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0122.html

Big storms are developing over north Central IN. This is well North of IND and N of I-70. Eric in Greenville would be most at risk from a forum member standpoint right now.

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1448 UNK 2 ESE South Bend St. Joseph IN 4167 8622 1 ft diameter tree limb downed ... appears healthy. Several smaller limbs were downed ... and an anchored pool was blown into a fence nearby. (IWX)

1647 100 Hartford City Blackford IN 4045 8537 Several pictures and reports of hail up to at least the size of quarters in and around Hartford City. (IWX)

1655 UNK Pennville Jay IN 4049 8515 EMA surveyed damage at a residence in the 6000 block of N SR 1. A large area of shingles was blown off the west facing side of a home and dropped on the northeast side. (IWX)

1715 UNK Poneto Wells IN 4066 8522 Delayed report. Time estimated from radar. Several large tree branches (estimated 12-18 inches in diameter) fell onto powerlines at a home in Poneto. No injuries. (IWX)

1718 UNK Monroe Adams IN 4074 8494 One downed power pole ... another damaged power pole ... and a couple large limbs (health unknown) downed in the area. (IWX)

1753 UNK 3 WNW Saint Henry Mercer OH 4044 8469 Peaked metal roof blown off hog building. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1800 UNK 1 SSE Coldwater Mercer OH 4047 8463 Box truck blown over. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1800 UNK 2 SSE Hallock Williams OH 4150 8454 Report of severe damage to a home in the 14000 block of County Road F. No other information at this time. (IWX)

1805 UNK 1 N Hallock Williams OH 4154 8456 Semi truck blown over near intersection of OH-15 and CR-I. No injuries reported. (IWX)

1806 UNK Saint Marys Auglaize OH 4054 8439 Large tree limbs down. (ILN)

1859 UNK 2 SSE Sylvania Lucas OH 4169 8368 12-15 inch diameter tree snapped off. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

1901 UNK 3 E Sylvania Lucas OH 4172 8364 Multiple large branches down. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

1930 100 Piqua Miami OH 4015 8425 (ILN)

1938 UNK 4 ESE Kenton Hardin OH 4062 8353 Tree down near intersection of CR-144 and Township Road 199. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2001 UNK 3 SW Marion Marion OH 4056 8316 Tree and utility poles down. (CLE)

2001 UNK 2 ENE Marion Marion OH 4059 8309 Power lines down near the intersection of University Drive and 309. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2005 65 2 E Marion Marion OH 4059 8308 Estimated 60-70 mph wind gust and pea size hail. (CLE)

2006 1 WSW Bucyrus Crawford OH 4080 8300 NWS storm damage survey confirmed an EF-1 tornado with estimated peak winds of 110 mph in Bucyrus. The damage path length is 3.48 miles and maximum width is 100 yards. (CLE)

2006 64 4 NE Marion Marion OH 4062 8307 ASOS station KMNN Marion. (CLE)

2008 UNK 1 NNE Bucyrus Crawford OH 4081 8297 Trees snapped a couple of feet above ground in addition to several trees uprooted and structural failure of what appears to be a shed or outbuilding on E Mansfield St. (CLE)

2015 100 4 WSW Polk Ashland OH 4092 8228 Lasted almost 5 minutes. (CLE)

2021 3 N Mutual Champaign OH 4013 8363 EF0 tornado caused tree and structural damage ... with maximum winds of 75 mph. Path length of 3.0 miles. (ILN)

2126 4 N New Albany Delaware OH 4013 8281 EF1 tornado caused tree and structural damage ... with maximum winds of 90 mph. Path length of 0.9 miles. (ILN)

2043 58 2 NNE Sandusky LEZ144 OH 4149 8270 Marine mesonet station XSDB 2 NNE Sandusky gust to 50 knots. (CLE)

2051 UNK 2 ESE Bellville Richland OH 4061 8247 Multiple trees down on Route 97 between Butler and Bellville. One and a half foot in diameter trees snapped about 3 feet above ground. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2105 100 3 SE Dublin Franklin OH 4010 8309 (ILN)

2105 59 3 W Riverlea Franklin OH 4008 8308 (ILN)

2118 100 Westerville Licking OH 4000 8267 (ILN)

2119 UNK 2 N Glenmont Holmes OH 4055 8210 Tree down across TR 222. (CLE)

2122 UNK 1 NW Westerville Franklin OH 4013 8293 Large tree limbs down. (ILN)

2122 UNK 5 E Nashville Holmes OH 4059 8202 Tree down near the intersection of SR 754 and CR 320. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2126 UNK 4 N New Albany Delaware OH 4013 8281 shingles blown off roof. (ILN)

2128 UNK 1 NE Killbuck Holmes OH 4051 8197 Tree down on TR 91. (CLE)

2129 UNK 4 N New Albany Delaware OH 4013 8280 Damage to several houses on Fancher Road. (ILN)

2130 100 2 S Riverlea Franklin OH 4006 8302 (ILN)

2130 100 Johnstown Licking OH 4015 8269 (ILN)

2135 100 2 NNE Whitehall Franklin OH 3999 8287 (ILN)

2135 100 3 NE Grandview Heights Franklin OH 4001 8301 (ILN)

2135 61 2 SW Millersburg Holmes OH 4053 8195 AWOS station K10G 2 WSW Millersburg. (CLE)

2137 100 Gahanna Franklin OH 4002 8288 (ILN)

2138 100 2 NW Gahanna Franklin OH 4004 8291 (ILN)

2150 100 4 E Mount Sterling Pickaway OH 3971 8320 (ILN)

2200 100 Lithopolis Fairfield OH 3981 8281 (ILN)

2205 150 3 W South Bloomfield Pickaway OH 3972 8305 (ILN)

2206 66 3 N Cleveland Cuyahoga OH 4152 8168 ASOS station KBKL Cleveland. (CLE)

2215 100 Ashville Pickaway OH 3972 8296 (ILN)

2215 100 South Bloomfield Pickaway OH 3972 8299 (ILN)

2219 125 Darbyville Pickaway OH 3970 8312 (ILN)

2225 UNK 1 W North Zanesville Muskingum OH 3998 8203 Tree down on Military Road. Time estimated from radar. (PBZ)

2225 UNK 3 NNE Leesville Carroll OH 4049 8119 Tree down on unoccupied cabin on Concord Drive near Leesville Lake. Time estimated from radar. (PBZ)

2229 UNK Streetsboro Portage OH 4124 8135 Tree down. (CLE)

2235 UNK 6 WNW Amsterdam Carroll OH 4050 8103 Trees down on State Route 9 near Pledge Road (PBZ)

2240 100 Lancaster Fairfield OH 3971 8260 (ILN)

2240 UNK Hanoverton Columbiana OH 4076 8094 Trees were reported down on Route 30 and on 2nd Street in Hanoverton. (PBZ)

2245 UNK 2 WNW Windham Portage OH 4124 8107 Report of at least one tractor trailer blown over on eastbound lanes of Ohio Turnpike (I-80) beyond State Route 44. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2246 UNK 2 W Windham Portage OH 4123 8108 Tree down on State Route 303. (CLE)

2247 UNK 2 W Windham Portage OH 4124 8107 Drone footage photo shows extensive damage to a house that was shifted off of the foundation. There was also an overturned vehicle. Time estimate via radar. (CLE)

2248 UNK 1 NNW Windham Portage OH 4125 8105 House damaged on County Road 229 south of State Route 82. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2250 100 5 E Williamsport Pickaway OH 3959 8303 (ILN)

2251 2 W Windham Portage OH 4123 8108 NWS storm damage survey confirmed an EF-1 tornado with estimated peak winds of 110 mph in Windham. The damage path length is 3.99 miles and maximum width is 65 yards. (CLE)

2251 UNK New Concord Muskingum OH 4000 8174 Trees were reported down on North Liberty Street near Buckeye Street in New Concord. (PBZ)

2252 100 Circleville Pickaway OH 3960 8294 (ILN)

2252 100 1 E Lancaster Fairfield OH 3971 8258 (ILN)

2258 150 3 W Stoutsville Pickaway OH 3960 8288 (ILN)

2301 3 WNW Champion Heights Trumbull OH 4131 8091 NWS storm damage survey confirmed an EF-0 tornado with estimated peak winds of 80 mph in Southington and Champion Townships. The damage path length is 2.96 miles. (CLE)

2301 UNK 2 SW Cambridge Guernsey OH 4001 8161 A few trees down on High Hill Road. (PBZ)

2303 UNK Toronto Jefferson OH 4046 8061 Report and photo of large tree down on Titanium Way. Time estimated based on radar. (PBZ)

2325 UNK 1 SE New Straitsville Perry OH 3957 8222 Tree down. (RLX)

2342 UNK 3 N Beallsville Belmont OH 3989 8102 Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken; Shingles blown off. (PBZ)

2344 UNK 6 S Logan Hocking OH 3946 8241 Trees down. Time estimated based on radar. (ILN)

0025 100 1 NNW Beverly Washington OH 3956 8165 Trained spotter reports largest hail size of 1 inch under a severe storm. (RLX)

0055 100 1 NW Marietta Washington OH 3943 8146 Spotter observed 1 inch hail on property. (RLX)

75 with a dew of 63 as of 2pm at CVG. Winds gusting out of the S at 45 mph has been reported! That is the bigger issue for Cincinnati, the strong winds even without t-storms. Decent line with a bow echo (probably some good straight line winds with it) is moving thru Western Ohio well north of Cincinnati and Dayton Metros. ILN's northern most counties are the ones at risk atm.

An update from the boys as of 1:40pm:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Looking at recent reflectivity data, storms being forced by the
cold front are starting to pop in western Indiana/ southwestern
Michigan. Satellite imagery depicts a wide dry slot moving into
our region at the time of this writing. Anticipating that this
insolation will help us destabilize a bit easier this
afternoon; ACARS out of IND supports this thinking.

12Z CAMs suggest that this line will swing through our area during
the mid afternoon hours extending through much of the CWA,
however, the greatest severe threat still appears to be along
and north of I-70 where forecast UH swaths gain intensity nearer
to central and eastern Ohio. With the conditional severe threat,
all hazards still remain on the table with MLCAPE of 1500+,
effective bulk shear values 40-45 kts, steepening lapse rates,
and subtle turning in the lowest levels. Any severe threat/
storms that do move through our region should have moved east by
evening hours- this looks to primarily be an afternoon show.

Outside of convection, gusty winds will move through the region
with the stronger pressure gradient and cold frontal passage.
For now, have highlighted this in the HWO.

Finally, continued high PWATs and wet vertical profiles will
result in effective rain rates, potentially leading to areas of
isolated flooding.