Absolute Vorticity

Latest thinking from the boys for tonight thru Wed - This is a very well written AFD.


The main item of interest tonight will be an increase in the
deep-layer wind fields, with a seasonably robust SW LLJ nosing
NE into the OH Vly late tonight. This WAA regime, amidst a
gradually-saturating LL profile, will promote the development
of ISO/SCT convection, initially in EC/SE IN around midnight.
This activity should expand in coverage as it quickly tracks to
the ENE within the increasing steering-layer flow, eventually
spreading through the Tri-State/WC OH and into central OH during
the predawn hours. With relatively cool air aloft and steep
midlevel lapse rates, robust updrafts should lead to quite a bit
of lightning and some hail in the strongest cores. While it may
not be /quite/ enough for severe hail, there should be /some/
smaller hail within this activity (courtesy of cold air aloft
and decent midlevel lapse rates) as it quickly expands through
WC and central OH around 09z. Still a few uncertainties in just
how widespread the coverage will be and whether it will expand
to the S closer to the OH Rvr during this time frame. Nevertheless,
felt confident to go with chance PoPs for areas N of OH Rvr and
likely PoPs in central OH near/prior to daybreak.

Temps tonight will be very warm by seasonal standards, dipping
to the lower 50s in central OH to the upper 50s in the Tri-
State/N KY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages:
Morning elevated storm activity should decrease in coverage
locally by mid morning and beyond, with a relative lull in
activity late morning through late afternoon. Additional
redevelopment along a surge of LL moisture is possible toward
late afternoon and early evening, especially in WC and central
OH. More robust/intense storm activity will be possible late
evening, overspreading a greater portion of the local area
around midnight into the heart of the overnight period. Greatest
severe threat will exist with this activity late evening into
the first part of the nighttime, with all hazards possible,
especially near I-70 corridor. Severe threat should diminish
with eastward extent late in the night. The cold front, with
additional storms, moves through in the several hour period
around sunrise.

Tue morning/early afternoon: lingering elevated SHRA/TSRA
activity should gradually decrease in coverage locally, with a
lull in activity expected during this time frame as LL moisture
pools across the heart of the ILN FA but a relatively strong
cap, owing to continued WAA aloft) becomes established.
Overcast sky conditions should limit destabilization efforts
through the first part of the afternoon before stronger SW
flow/diurnal mixing helps erode the cloud cover progressively
from SW to NE late in the day.

Tue late afternoon/early evening: Some convective development is
possible coincident with the better LL moisture profile, which
will shift to the N to near I-70 by late afternoon. Some sfc
instby should exist within this northward-moving axis, but
confidence in where exactly this activity develops remains
relatively low, owing to questions about how long the cap holds.
This activity, should it develop, may end up developing /just/
to the N of the ILN FA and expand in coverage late evening as it
pushes further N.

Tue late evening/early overnight: This period presents the most
concern for us locally, especially if storms are able to develop
in the pre-frontal environment along the leading edge of the
pool of best LL moisture across IN in an environment that will
also become increasingly uncapped with a rapid increase in
forcing. Incredible moisture and mass response will be ongoing
across the region by this time period. And this will coincide
with robust LL and deep-layer shear, with a concern for
discrete activity to develop near/after 00z before expanding to
the E rapidly into EC IN and WC OH around 03z. Still some
uncertainty in storm coverage and initiation in this area, but,
should all the ingredients come together, this would be the
primary window for strong/severe storms locally, especially as
it expands E into a larger portion of the local area
around/after midnight. Breezy southerly flow will develop during
this time, too, with sustained winds of 20kts and gusts to
30-35kts possible overnight with the tightening pressure
gradient. The greatest coverage of storms, and therefore the
greatest potential for severe storms as a whole, should evolve
from EC IN into WC OH and parts of central OH through the middle
of the night.

Early Wed morning/afternoon: Convective activity will
develop/expand along the eastward-advancing front, with
indications for a slightly faster progression into the wrn
fringes of the ILN FA as early as 12z before /much/ cooler and
drier air filters in rapidly mid morning into the afternoon.
Widespread SHRA, with some embedded TSRA, will be ongoing around
daybreak Wednesday, with activity shifting E quickly during
this time frame. Some strong wind gusts will be possible with
this quasi-linear activity, especially with the LL bulk shear
vector at about 260 degrees and the source of the lift oriented
more out of the SSW. Some post-frontal SHRA may linger a few
hours behind the sfc front itself. Gusty westerly winds to
30-35kts are expected Wed morning into the afternoon in the
post-frontal environment as LL mixing increases. A non-diurnal
temp trace is expected Wednesday as temps fall from morning
highs in the 60s to afternoon temps in the 30s.

Beautiful day but the allergies have started and this is way too early. So far timing wise it looks like we may escape a big time severe outbreak but overnight and early Tuesday the biggest threat may be small hail and of course some heavy rain. Very nice cold front on Wednesday that may come through early enough that we avoid any big time severe weather but a squall line looks more likely. Though I want the milder air to stay we still want cold fronts to make it to the gulf states and though they have done well with rain this winter you want that to continue for at least another month before summer starts to get going down there. Hopefully we can continue with the above normal rainfall into the next 2-3 months and though you can still get a short term drought having above normal rainfall in the spring helps quite a bit for any longer term drought.

The one item I forgot to mention will be the strong winds later Tuesday and Wednesday. Going to be a steady wind as well and expect many hours where you have 15-30 mph ongoing with some higher gusts over 40. Could knock down some older trees and no doubt the limbs will be falling like crazy. These winds are without any storms so getting a nice thundershower can really give us an hour of two in the 40 plus mph

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:29 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode

Same here bro!

Currently 64 here in G'ville which is ILN's progged high for up this way.

Have reached the 5000th threshold and am now Hurricane Eric!

It truly was a beautiful day today,..,. still is! CVG maxed out at 71. Two degrees short of the record. I recorded the same here.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:54 pm Currently 64 here in G'ville which is ILN's progged high for up this way.

Have reached the 5000 threshold and am now Hurricane Eric!

The Tropics are going to be busy this year Bro if the upper level winds become favorable. SST's are already at early summer time levels in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Atlantic.

Once we get past tomorrow and into Wed with the big temp change... Some light rain is likely on Friday now as a weak southern stream wave moves thru. That will set us up with ridging building in for the weekend. Low 60s Sat... 70 again on Sunday with 70+ next Monday ahead of our next rain maker. May have to do a little fishing on Sunday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:55 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:54 pm Currently 64 here in G'ville which is ILN's progged high for up this way.

Have reached the 5000 threshold and am now Hurricane Eric!

The Tropics are going to be busy this year Bro if the upper level winds become favorable. SST's are already at early summer time levels in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Atlantic.

I hear ya Bro!

My mother Joyce and your Aunt Leslie e.g. are on the Atlantic list for this season.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:55 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:54 pm Currently 64 here in G'ville which is ILN's progged high for up this way.

Have reached the 5000 threshold and am now Hurricane Eric!

The Tropics are going to be busy this year Bro if the upper level winds become favorable. SST's are already at early summer time levels in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Atlantic.

I hear ya Bro!

My mother Joyce and your Aunt Leslie e.g. are on the Atlantic list for this season.

We may very well see both of those named storms. Let's see how strong they can get.

CVG reached 71, DAY 68 and CMH 67 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:06 pm Once we get past tomorrow and into Wed with the big temp change... Some light rain is likely on Friday now as a weak southern stream wave moves thru. That will set us up with ridging building in for the weekend. Low 60s Sat... 70 again on Sunday with 70+ next Monday ahead of our next rain maker. May have to do a little fishing on Sunday.

I’m with ya. Was checking out our pond today..Definitely seeing some swirl action.

well i hate to do it but my towel is thrown for this winter. another lack luster for the most part. cold and snow lovers suffered again with way below avg snowfall. I am just happy the fall was very nice with seasonal to below avg temps at times. the winters are a crap shoot. most years are a failure so I never went big on my outlook but I said we would end up average and still fell short but i am happy i am not one of the weenies who were going all in on cold and snow. i know the short range is going to be above avg temps but i am hoping we get more seasonal temps at some point in march and april and not a blow torch both months

Mjr wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:06 pm Once we get past tomorrow and into Wed with the big temp change... Some light rain is likely on Friday now as a weak southern stream wave moves thru. That will set us up with ridging building in for the weekend. Low 60s Sat... 70 again on Sunday with 70+ next Monday ahead of our next rain maker. May have to do a little fishing on Sunday.

I’m with ya. Was checking out our pond today..Definitely seeing some swirl action.

I wonder if it's too early to hit the big slab black crappies? Depends on what the water temp is of course.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 3:19 am well i hate to do it but my towel is thrown for this winter. another lack luster for the most part. cold and snow lovers suffered again with way below avg snowfall. I am just happy the fall was very nice with seasonal to below avg temps at times. the winters are a crap shoot. most years are a failure so I never went big on my outlook but I said we would end up average and still fell short but i am happy i am not one of the weenies who were going all in on cold and snow. i know the short range is going to be above avg temps but i am hoping we get more seasonal temps at some point in march and april and not a blow torch both months

Around here, we are seeing 60s and low 70s already mixed in with a 1-2 days of cooler weather. Spring is in the air here. Pawn services are already coming around putting on the halts (crab grass killer) for the new lawn season. Trees have buds on them too. It won't be long.

Watching t-storm action today folks... to me things look scattered and unorganized. Should allow us to get close to 70 again today, cloud cover dependent. Scattered rain / storms are located well to our SW trying to push up this way., We'll see. The best shot for rain may not come until the actual cold front tomorrow morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 4:37 am Watching t-storm action today folks... to me things look scattered and unorganized. Should allow us to get close to 70 again today, cloud cover dependent. Scattered rain / storms are located well to our SW trying to push up this way., We'll see. The best shot for rain may not come until the actual cold front tomorrow morning.

The HRRR is actually starting to paint a more ominous picture. Curved hodographs supportive of tornadoes. Putting together an update for my page as we speak...

HRRR showing supercells across the tri-state late this evening/tonight.

Looks like between 3am (SW) to 8am (eastern counties) for chances. Key willl be if cells can form ahead of the pencil thin line of the cold front

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 5:48 am Looks like between 3am (SW) to 8am (eastern counties) for chances. Key willl be if cells can form ahead of the pencil thin line of the cold front

Will we have enough CAPE still and will lapse rates be steep enough? It is an unfavorable time of day for severe wx. I'm not sold on the severe threat this far East. It'll be interesting to see how things look as the sun sets this evening though.

Latest thoughts from the boys, and they kind of feel the same way that I do.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Any shower activity has had a tough time getting going across
the area so far this morning. The best coverage attm is back
across eastern Missouri, southern Illinois and western
Kentucky. This is along the nose of a secondary low level jet
that is forecast to move east into the Tennessee Valley and
weaken somewhat through mid morning. The latest HRRR seems to
have the best handle on this at the moment, taking this area of
pcpn east, affecting mainly our southern areas as we get
toward daybreak. Meanwhile, with increasing moist flow
across our area and good elevated instabilities, there is still
a chance for some additional scattered shower/thunderstorm
development elsewhere across our area through mid morning.

Otherwise, as we head through the daytime period, there remains
some question as to the degree of lower cloud cover development
as the low levels continue to moisten up. This could have some
affect on temperatures for today and as a result the amount of
surface based instability that develops. We will remain mild in
the continued southerly flow pattern, but some of the newer
guidance has backed off somewhat on temperatures for later
today. For now, will continue with highs today mostly in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees as we do start to get a little more
into the warm sector as the day progresses.

Pcpn chances for later today also remain somewhat uncertain.
At this point, will allow for some lower chance pops to shift
gradually north as a pseudo boundary lifts north across our
area. Some weaker surface instabilities will likely develop
through the afternoon, which may allow for a bit more of a focus
across our northern areas later in the day. There is still a
small window for some better development of stronger storms near
this boundary late this afternoon into early evening across our
far northwest, but it looks like the better chance for this
will be off to our northwest, where the better surface based
instabilities should be.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

The cold front will approach our area from the northwest
tonight, pushing into our far northwest toward daybreak.
Strengthening low and mid level flow ahead of the front will
lead to good moisture transport up into our area through the
night. This will allow for the axis of better surface based
instability to shift east into our area overnight, but it should
also be weakening slowly as it does.

There remains a fair amount of model differences with the exact
timing and storm evolution overnight, but it would seem the
most likely scenario will be for a consolidating line of storms
to move into our western areas after midnight tonight and then
move southeast across our area through the early morning hours.
With the strengthening wind fields, there will be a damaging
wind threat with these storms and it will also be tough to rule
out an isolated tornado. It still appears the best chance for
this would be across about the northwest half of our area, with
a decreasing chance heading to the southeast as we get further
into the early morning hours and the surface based instability
continues to decrease. Pcpn chances should then taper off fairly
quickly through Wednesday morning as the front moves through.

https://www.facebook.com/cincywxcenter/

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 6:24 am
https://www.facebook.com/cincywxcenter/

I assume this is supposed to be an update from your Cincywx Report FB page. On my phone, it's a broken image. I'll check it on my work Pc here shortly to see if I can see it.

Still cannot see it Trev. Looks like a Facebook error indicating that your FB post no longer exists.