Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Good Morning Les and I am they are looking at the data today. When the temp went up 11 degrees in 1 hour under mostly cloudy sky we knew there was something wrong. My guess the high temp will be readjusted later today and somewhere in that 77-80 degree range.
I'm okay with the low 80s. But I disagree with 85 completely. I had 81 yesterday and Boone Co mesonet had 80. I am guessing CVG was in that 80-82 degree range.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 7:51 amGood Morning Les and I am they are looking at the data today. When the temp went up 11 degrees in 1 hour under mostly cloudy sky we knew there was something wrong. My guess the high temp will be readjusted later today and somewhere in that 77-80 degree range.
I agree and at the moment the Atlantic is quiet except for the 2 storms nearby. If the Atlantic stays rather quiet then the heat the models are showing in the extended may need to be trimmed down but will give several days and let these two storms move away before models sort of reorganize.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:41 am Current guidance doesn't show any rain chances for us until 9/6 or 9/7. At this point, I will maintain a dry forecast for the next 7-10 days. We can work on that timing once we get closer. The tropics may or may not change that timing. We will need to monitor guidance and the tropics going forward. You guys know how these transitional seasons and months work.
Great post Tim! I will keep my upper 80s to 90 call for Labor Day Weekend intact. I still believe that is coming thanks to the tropics. How long that lasts as well as our dry pattern remains to be seen as we have stated.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:53 amI agree and at the moment the Atlantic is quiet except for the 2 storms nearby. If the Atlantic stays rather quiet then the heat the models are showing in the extended may need to be trimmed down but will give several days and let these two storms move away before models sort of reorganize.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:41 am Current guidance doesn't show any rain chances for us until 9/6 or 9/7. At this point, I will maintain a dry forecast for the next 7-10 days. We can work on that timing once we get closer. The tropics may or may not change that timing. We will need to monitor guidance and the tropics going forward. You guys know how these transitional seasons and months work.
CVG 82, DAY 79 and CMH 81 were all readjusted Bro.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:21 amI'm okay with the low 80s. But I disagree with 85 completely. I had 81 yesterday and Boone Co mesonet had 80. I am guessing CVG was in that 80-82 degree range.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 7:51 amGood Morning Les and I am they are looking at the data today. When the temp went up 11 degrees in 1 hour under mostly cloudy sky we knew there was something wrong. My guess the high temp will be readjusted later today and somewhere in that 77-80 degree range.
Beautiful! Thank you Bro for reporting that. Our suspicion was correct.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:49 amCVG 82, DAY 79 and CMH 81 were all readjusted Bro.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:21 amI'm okay with the low 80s. But I disagree with 85 completely. I had 81 yesterday and Boone Co mesonet had 80. I am guessing CVG was in that 80-82 degree range.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 7:51 amGood Morning Les and I am they are looking at the data today. When the temp went up 11 degrees in 1 hour under mostly cloudy sky we knew there was something wrong. My guess the high temp will be readjusted later today and somewhere in that 77-80 degree range.
Perhaps another long stretch of 90s?58 here this morning! The ground will definitely dry out Mike due to the lack of rain despite some of us getting a good soaking last week. 100 degree heat in September would be breaking records.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:14 am Dropped to 57 here this AM. Man the GFS looks like it is off it's rocker again next week for high temps. Although with these tropical systems passing to our SE gotta watch for that sinking air on the west side inflating highs. But can't imagine 5 days of 100+ heat in September.
I am going with the upper 80s to around 90 for the Labor Day weekend then after that, the lower 90s wouldn't shock me at all. I am going to stick with that for the time being. I currently don't see those insane dew points either so that may also help get those numbers up. With the last heat wave, using CVG, 94 was the best we could do. I don't see us going higher then that at this time.I agree and yes we had that insane day on Friday with dew point at 80 but it was a one day event. The drying out process will not get us even close to those dew points again as places further west will be drying out as well. I believe early on starting the Labor day weekend we have some temps in that 88-91 range and then lets see what happens after the tropical systems move away because they always have influence on the models and sometimes they are correct. Just showing what tropical systems can do is the current Hurricane which just formed changed how low some temps were over the weekend. This extended even further north as many places ended 5-10 above what the models were showing 4 days ago. This time of year and usually into early Oct the tropics can be the bully in the neighborhood and at the moment they are to a certain extent. I just want to see by the time we get to Friday what the models are showing 7-10 days out. If another tropical system forms yes the higher temps seem correct but we have nothing going on anywhere near the USA then I would expect those temps to be tempered somewhat and instead of temps close to 90 we may see them closer to the 83-85 rangetron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:30 am58 here this morning! The ground will definitely dry out Mike due to the lack of rain despite some of us getting a good soaking last week. 100 degree heat in September would be breaking records.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:14 am Dropped to 57 here this AM. Man the GFS looks like it is off it's rocker again next week for high temps. Although with these tropical systems passing to our SE gotta watch for that sinking air on the west side inflating highs. But can't imagine 5 days of 100+ heat in September.
At this early stage of the game, I too will side with the foreign models. However, we need to keep one eye open just in case the GooFuS somehow scores a coupe.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:53 pm Les we have seen this before where a hurricane will lose strength and then sort of sit around and then gain strength once again and head westward. No its not common but has happened before. I believe that looks unlikely but you can never throw these storms because they seem to keep a bit of energy even after they have hit land and move offshore. Of course the part of Atlantic will have been used so not sure if the energy will be able to gain strength again. I tend to agree more with the cmc and euro though they keep some energy as well but further east and looks like it does not head westward.
Les your forecast may be perfect because over the weekend we may only have dew points in the low 60's or so and temps with a bright sunny sky can rise quickly. So I may be underestimating temps a little because of that reason. Need to get those temps down into the upper 70's or lower by Sept 11-14 as I have a 4 day golf outing in Brown County Indiana and the beer is much nicer at 76 degrees than 86 degrees.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 3:54 pm No doubt Tim! Today thru Thurs no problems with delightful temps and low humidity levels. After that, I have no changes to my temp calls. Mid 80s Friday, the upper 80s to 90 this weekend and Labor Day. Then we'll see about the low 90s or not next week along with when we see our next rain chances. Currently I am going with the 9/6 to 9/7 timeframe.
Agreed on the dews Tim. I don't see dews getting much above 65 thru our forecast period. (Labor Day). Would love to see a nice shot of cool air for your golf outing as well. I believe that will come. I just don't know if it'll be then or after mid month. Again, we shall see what the tropics do as that will certainly have a say in when the summer time warmth is done.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 3:58 pmLes your forecast may be perfect because over the weekend we may only have dew points in the low 60's or so and temps with a bright sunny sky can rise quickly. So I may be underestimating temps a little because of that reason. Need to get those temps down into the upper 70's or lower by Sept 11-14 as I have a 4 day golf outing in Brown County Indiana and the beer is much nicer at 76 degrees than 86 degrees.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 3:54 pm No doubt Tim! Today thru Thurs no problems with delightful temps and low humidity levels. After that, I have no changes to my temp calls. Mid 80s Friday, the upper 80s to 90 this weekend and Labor Day. Then we'll see about the low 90s or not next week along with when we see our next rain chances. Currently I am going with the 9/6 to 9/7 timeframe.
The 1st half of Sept no doubt will be dry and well above normal in temps. Hopefully the tropics shut down early this year and we can get on to Fall. Check this out. Beautiful morning to be working outside.