Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:15 pm
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
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Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:16 pm
To me it seems like the Euro and NAM have been trending towards the colder solution of the GFS over the last two days. That must mean they are on to something.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:19 pm
So it seems to be pretty set in stone that:
-- Heaviest axis of snow will fall from central MO/IL to northern IN and northwest OH
-- Freezing rain falling across central/northern KY into SE OH.
-- We are in-between with some ice and some snow. Depending on how fast (or slow) the upper level cold air advects in will determine how much snow or sleet we will get.
That is how I see things now.
-- Heaviest axis of snow will fall from central MO/IL to northern IN and northwest OH
-- Freezing rain falling across central/northern KY into SE OH.
-- We are in-between with some ice and some snow. Depending on how fast (or slow) the upper level cold air advects in will determine how much snow or sleet we will get.
That is how I see things now.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:21 pm
12z Euro text data
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 12Z 03-FEB -1.6 3.3 1022 97 88 0.26 563 546
THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.4 1.0 1022 95 98 0.58 564 546
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.2 -2.1 1025 87 97 0.35 563 544
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -5.8 -3.8 1028 82 97 0.06 562 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.4 -5.7 1029 79 99 0.05 559 536
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -7.3 -8.1 1031 71 95 0.04 554 530
HAO
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.2 2.2 1023 92 93 0.19 562 544
THU 18Z 03-FEB -3.0 0.0 1023 89 98 0.44 563 545
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.6 -3.2 1026 87 95 0.27 562 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.4 -4.6 1028 81 93 0.04 561 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.9 -6.3 1030 79 96 0.03 558 535
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -8.2 -8.4 1032 73 88 0.02 553 529
MGY
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.6 1.5 1023 91 95 0.19 562 543
THU 18Z 03-FEB -3.4 -0.4 1023 89 98 0.41 562 544
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -5.3 -3.5 1026 87 94 0.29 562 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.1 -4.8 1028 83 92 0.04 560 538
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.8 -6.5 1030 80 93 0.02 557 535
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -8.9 -8.6 1032 77 83 0.02 553 529
DAY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -0.9 1.9 1021 94 97 0.34 561 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -3.3 0.2 1024 90 95 0.19 561 542
THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.1 -1.3 1024 89 98 0.35 562 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -5.9 -4.2 1027 86 93 0.24 561 540
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.7 -5.3 1029 83 89 0.03 559 537
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.5 -6.9 1030 80 86 0.01 557 533
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -9.6 -8.8 1032 82 72 0.01 552 528
CMH
THU 12Z 03-FEB -1.8 1.5 1024 92 99 0.19 562 544
THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.6 0.5 1023 90 97 0.39 562 544
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.7 -2.9 1025 85 97 0.46 562 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.2 -4.4 1027 83 95 0.05 560 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.1 -6.1 1029 82 95 0.03 558 535
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -8.1 -8.5 1030 75 88 0.02 553 530
SAT 00Z 05-FEB -11.7 -10.7 1032 81 4 0.01 550 525
FGX
THU 18Z 03-FEB -0.2 4.4 1020 99 99 0.60 566 551
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -2.3 1.8 1022 97 98 0.65 566 549
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -4.0 -0.8 1025 91 99 0.26 565 545
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -5.5 -3.2 1027 83 98 0.10 562 541
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -6.0 -6.7 1030 71 98 0.04 557 534
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:22 pm
just eyeballing the maps it look like .50+ ice and 3 to 4 inches snow in my hood.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:22 pm
I agree. Canadian and RGEM are the warmer outlier with thermals and surface temps. NAM is warmer with thermals too but does changeover faster like GFS and Euro so they all 3 match up well with surface temps.mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:16 pm To me it seems like the Euro and NAM have been trending towards the colder solution of the GFS over the last two days. That must mean they are on to something.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:23 pm
Euro def took a nod towards the GFS. Perfect!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:25 pm
Euro brought the upper low back too on this run to continue some festive light snow on Friday. 
That feature has been on and off on guidance for days.
That feature has been on and off on guidance for days.Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:27 pm
57 today at CVG. Can we make a run at 60? 
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:27 pm
Agree Les and the CMC shows this as well. The second wave is a little further south and a little weaker which is really looking good at the moment.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:28 pm
Dang it's even 54 here!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:31 pm
Get the grills fired up for supper folks! Then get right back here to the forum!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:41 pm
Anybody care to make a call? I may try and put something out this evening.
I may try and put something out this evening.Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:48 pm
Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.
.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!
.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:01 pm
There he is!!!Wxulikeitornot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:51 pm Come on King! Give Les what he needs to post BOTH rappers!!!!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:03 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:04 pm
That it is, but a call has to be made at some point.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:09 pm
What can you do if you're the NWS making a forecast for Cincinnati? You have different models showing anywhere from about 0-14 inches of snow. Sometimes we are pretty hard on them for missing a winter storm forecast, but geesh
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:10 pm
59 now... we'll eclipse 60 down here. Wow!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:10 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:11 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:15 pm
Radar already shows moisture return from the Gulf ahead of the frontal boundary. SPC meso page shows that the Gulf is wide open for business.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:22 pm
I'm anxiously waiting CB's First Call Map
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:24 pm
Just checked Twitter, nothing yet.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:29 pm
56 - heck we may even flirt with 60 up here! LOL