Absolute Vorticity

Its nice to see the front range, the rockies and the plains getting a nice dose of precip in the form of snow over the next couple weeks. Not a drought buster but Drought severity has been expanding in these areas over winter and many in dire need

62 here today - heading down to WV tomorrow and will prob be outpacing the low and front on the way.

I'm expecting a 1/2" of rain then 6-10" of snow for my cousin in S Michigan tomorrow / tomorrow night. Going up either Fri night or Sat morning for some ice fishing. Be back late Sun.... have to work on Pres Day *grumble grumble*

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:09 pm I'm expecting a 1/2" of rain then 6-10" of snow for my cousin in S Michigan tomorrow / tomorrow night. Going up either Fri night or Sat morning for some ice fishing. Be back late Sun.... have to work on Pres Day *grumble grumble*

Have a great time, bro!

Rain is moving in from the west and will be here in the next couple of hours. At least I’ll have a dry drive into work. Not so much on the way home

Wet day ahead!

Good Morning and a beautiful day in store. Finally the storm is underway and the path is going to be near us or just a hair south. The Euro corrected on Monday with the path and that seems to have been the correct move. The GFS always to far north and CMC to far south. Going to be a 3 way tie on this round because the Euro was just to late to the party imo to give that model a win.

Getting back to the action and tons of rainfall today. Could be a squall type event during the evening rush hour which could have winds quite gusty. Looks like with the more southerly track that we will get a period of snow but again with the warm temps ahead of the system and the gusty winds not expecting more than 1/2 at best on mainly the grassy areas when you wake up on Friday. Could be a few slick spots as we are going to drop quickly in a short amount of time but many of the roads will be dry.

Next week looks very busy so I am getting out of town lol. Heading to SC on Monday for about a week but will be watching things from afar. I need to do some outdoor work down there but looks somewhat wet there as well but hopefully some nice milder days thrown in with no rain.

An Ohio river special for sure. The PHH pattern is seemingly set in stone the next two weeks. After tuesdays rain, the battle between arctic air and southern flow return as these big highs pass to our east , is back and forth , need a perfect low track to get something substantial out of the setup , as usual, but numerous chances abound

Good morning all! Raining most everywhere probably now across our region. Mid 50s here currently. Should hit 60 before we fall later on. As mentioned, lots of precip in our future. A lot of rain for sure and we'll have to see each low track as each system gets closer to see if ice and snow are in the cards. As is usually the case, someone will see all rain and a lot of it and places across the north will be icy and snowy. I could easily see our area getting bisected with these future systems. We'll see... one strong push from a high and it'll be us instead on the wintry side. It's really close on the guidance right now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:32 am Good morning all! Raining most everywhere probably now across our region. Mid 50s here currently. Should hit 60 before we fall later on. As mentioned, lots of precip in our future. A lot of rain for sure and we'll have to see each low track as each system gets closer to see if ice and snow are in the cards. As is usually the case, someone will see all rain and a lot of it and places across the north will be icy and snowy. I could easily see our area getting bisected with these future systems. We'll see... one strong push from a high and it'll be us instead on the wintry side. It's really close on the guidance right now.

Good Morning Les. I agree either one big push from a high or if we get a high to come in and a low to work in here fast enough before the cold air is gone. Going to be very busy for the next 2 weeks and probably beyond. Flooding will become more of a concern down the road if we continue to get hit with system every 3-4 days or so.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:32 am Good morning all! Raining most everywhere probably now across our region. Mid 50s here currently. Should hit 60 before we fall later on. As mentioned, lots of precip in our future. A lot of rain for sure and we'll have to see each low track as each system gets closer to see if ice and snow are in the cards. As is usually the case, someone will see all rain and a lot of it and places across the north will be icy and snowy. I could easily see our area getting bisected with these future systems. We'll see... one strong push from a high and it'll be us instead on the wintry side. It's really close on the guidance right now.

Good Morning Les. I agree either one big push from a high or if we get a high to come in and a low to work in here fast enough before the cold air is gone. Going to be very busy for the next 2 weeks and probably beyond. Flooding will become more of a concern down the road if we continue to get hit with system every 3-4 days or so.

Good morning and I agree Tim about the flooding aspects. I'd rather remain frozen versus liquid, but if we end up seeing more rain esp upstream, river concerns are going to be coming without a doubt. 0.20" here already lol It doesn't take long to add up.

Spring is in the air this morning and no , it doesn't take long to add up . Driving in this morning, in the heavier returns, the size of the raindrops were huge, so where those occur repeatedly could be a problem

PWATS are over an inch now which is unusual, but not unheard of for this time of year.

0.30" as of 8am at CVG. 53 degrees with light to mod rain.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:57 am An Ohio river special for sure. The PHH pattern is seemingly set in stone the next two weeks. After tuesdays rain, the battle between arctic air and southern flow return as these big highs pass to our east , is back and forth , need a perfect low track to get something substantial out of the setup , as usual, but numerous chances abound

Bgoney, what does the PHH stand for? Thanks

We have the front just northwest of Indy but its coming to a slow craw as this first wave moves through. No doubt the cold front made more headway than the gfs was showing but still going to be late this afternoon before it gets here. Big drop in temp as well and probably drop 25-30 degrees in a 4-5 hour period and lets hope we get some drying by the winds before this happens because temps will fall well into the 20's.

40% chance of a watch issuance down in AR associated with the second wave:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0141.html

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:57 am An Ohio river special for sure. The PHH pattern is seemingly set in stone the next two weeks. After tuesdays rain, the battle between arctic air and southern flow return as these big highs pass to our east , is back and forth , need a perfect low track to get something substantial out of the setup , as usual, but numerous chances abound

Bgoney, what does the PHH stand for? Thanks

Pan-Handle Hook pattern, most of the shortwave energy's develop near the Tex/Ok panhandles and move towards the OV

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 9:29 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 5:57 am An Ohio river special for sure. The PHH pattern is seemingly set in stone the next two weeks. After tuesdays rain, the battle between arctic air and southern flow return as these big highs pass to our east , is back and forth , need a perfect low track to get something substantial out of the setup , as usual, but numerous chances abound

Bgoney, what does the PHH stand for? Thanks

Pan-Handle Hook pattern, most of the shortwave energy's develop near the Tex/Ok panhandles and move towards the OV

Oh ok, thanks! Hopefully next week we can get that cold air in here and these PHH's can become APP runners and give us snow instead of all that rain.

For next week... We'll either be happy or in "get out the boats" mode depending on what happens. First round is def going to be rain for Tues with 60 degrees again. We will drop on Wed though and then we'll see how the next round for Thurs shapes up.

I don't think anyone has posted this yet, but in addition to the Flood Watch, Wind advisory, and strong t-storm risk coming this evening... we've got a winter weather advisory out for this evening into the early overnight hours for ILN's N Tier of counties:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
less than an inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

GFS for next Mon/Tues giving Tenn valley 5-9" of rainfall , there is a chance that could shift northward in the coming days

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:16 am GFS for next Mon/Tues giving Tenn valley 5-9" of rainfall , there is a chance that could shift northward in the coming days

Also, more heavy rain later in the week as well.

The temperature feel 9 degrees in a matter of 2 minutes at INDY when the cold front passed through according to a tweet by the NWS.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:34 am The temperature feel 9 degrees in a matter of 2 minutes at INDY when the cold front passed through according to a tweet by the NWS.

Holy cow. That's crazy.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:34 am The temperature feel 9 degrees in a matter of 2 minutes at INDY when the cold front passed through according to a tweet by the NWS.

That is wild and these kind of huge temp swings in a few minutes are usually in the northern rockies and the plains . I know Amarillo in Texas I believe dropped about 44 degrees in an hour and somewhere in Montana rose 49 degrees in 2 minutes.