Absolute Vorticity

Lows should be able to get way down there tonight. High is overhead moving off to the NE so calm winds should prevail with clear skies. 18 here currently. 0 to 5 above if we had snow cover. Will have to settle with 10 without.

Rough night for the Carolina Beaches and interior areas:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0090.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:48 pm Too bad it is fantasy, but the 18Z GFS has a great start to Feb with two moderate to heavy snow systems. Warmer look has been starting to back off. Wonder if the warmer pattern might be delayed until mid month? That would be fantastic and give us a shot at a nice storm or two.

Could be due to no tropical forcing getting Involved because of a very weak MJO, so the cold may linger. As you say , we shall see

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:48 pm Too bad it is fantasy, but the 18Z GFS has a great start to Feb with two moderate to heavy snow systems. Warmer look has been starting to back off. Wonder if the warmer pattern might be delayed until mid month? That would be fantastic and give us a shot at a nice storm or two.

Could be due to no tropical forcing getting Involved because of a very weak MJO, so the cold may linger. As you say , we shall see

EPO looks to remain neutral to negative which is a huge plus even with a negative PNA. WPO also negative and the ridge should remain poleward to help promote cross polar flow at times. This keeps the PV in our side of the globe and it cannot escape over to Siberia. The SE ridge will be there so the risk of a cutter is possible, but it won't get too out of hand IMO in this set up. NAO should be positive but I like the high risk, high reward thing that I said earlier. It is an active and juicy set up. Can we keep the cold to go along with it is the ultimate question as usual. Has the Nina weakened enough yet or are its impacts still there? I also like how the Gulf of Alaska has warmed so the -PDO is also weakening. Could mean for an interesting back half of winter in my opinion. Those warmer calls might be wrong... we'll see. It's going to be interesting.

I think the warmer risk is there but as I said earlier, if it gets delayed to mid month, don't be shocked. If it breaks down, don't be shocked either lol I think the background state is improving to perhaps keep this colder pattern going along with an STJ to go along with it. A blend of Dec and Jan. Maybe we can score with that.

8 bare ground degrees here

Dropped to 7 here, CVG got down to at least 9.

9 on Oxford overnight. Anyone looked at the latest gfs run? Will obviously change but on face value, Yatzee! Looks like a very active pattern. We may see an inch of snow yet. Sitting at a measly 1/2” so far.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:18 am 9 on Oxford overnight. Anyone looked at the latest gfs run? Will obviously change but on face value, Yatzee! Looks like a very active pattern. We may see an inch of snow yet. Sitting at a measly 1/2” so far.

Late next week looks like our next potential time period to watch.

5 degrees this morning out near Somerville

After Monday, the next chance for light snow for the area is Thurs night into Fri morning per the 12Z GFS. Can't get much interaction between the cold front singing thru from the northern s/w and another low moving across the southern US in the STJ.

On Wed morning my folks and I will meet up with an aunt to take care of some business in Anderson, IN.

Currently both Anderson and Greenville are progged for 2 early Wed morning and topping out at around 17 that afternoon.

The Ol Woolyworm is getting depressed. The lack of snowfall here at the woodpile is getting old. Oh gee, got another dusting. So far this winter is going to be called The Dusting Winter.

What a crazy game as the Bucs rallied back big time after being down by just a field goal for part of the game, just to end up going down by a field goal!

Have been having some more light snow here in G'ville this evening.

Currently 21 here and progged for around 12 Mon morning.

26 here current should get down o around 20. 15 if we can ditch the clouds but I am not so sure that's going to happen. Cloudy tomorrow with the next clipper coming in. Not expecting much due to a S Mich low track.

I see one more shot at light snow for January and that will be a possible system for Thurs night and Friday, the 27-28th. With this system, can we see any interaction before the East Coast low takes over? CMC has a partial phase. GFS and Euro are trying. They all three generate a little QPF over the region. Of course, the earlier the phase the better for us, but one to watch. This storm was supposed to stay offshore. Now looking like a legit big deal for the Interior New England folks and maybe I-95, depends on track. Further west the better for our snow prospects in the OV of course.

Update on PV, holding steady for quite awhile, not in record territory bit moderately strong. It's been another failed year for the big dogs that forecast the PV back in the fall for the upcoming winter, and a portion of climate forecasting that has a long way to go.


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average
and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean)
31 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the
last forecast step (2022-02-08 00:00:00)

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 48.3 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -16.1 m/s 2006
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 69.8 m/s 1984

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:34 am Update on PV, holding steady for quite awhile, not in record territory bit moderately strong. It's been another failed year for the big dogs that forecast the PV back in the fall for the upcoming winter, and a portion of climate forecasting that has a long way to go.


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average
and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean)
31 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the
last forecast step (2022-02-08 00:00:00)

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 48.3 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -16.1 m/s 2006
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 69.8 m/s 1984

No doubt. The PV may have been at record weak territory back in the fall when it first developed, but back in mid to late December thru present, it has come back nicely.

CVG and KDAY least snowiest January's
CVG currently at 1.8

Back to back dismal Januaries... unless Fri can pull a rabbit out of its hat.

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/24/snowta ... pdate-124/

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:04 am Back to back dismal Januaries... unless Fri can pull a rabbit out of its hat.

I believe 4 of those January duds were followed with double digit February's

Good Morning and another cold week ahead. Looks like the pattern is going to change later this week and usually a big storm will help bring in those changes. So yes I expect a big storm but where is the key. Most likely that will be east of us for next weekend. That could mean a powerful noreaster with tons of snow and wind up there. That is usually followed by a very strong high pressure that settles in to our northeast. Then we start seeing systems that had being heading to the east coast that cannot head towards the strong high and we get systems that are further west. The problem is with these changes they head to far west and the GOM opens up with plenty of moisture but also warmer air. Does this mean no chances of snow and the answer is no. Next week depending how quickly moisture returns from the gom could see a situation where the ground is still cold and somebody nearby gets into an icy situation. Way to early but no doubt an option to watch. Later this week the pattern goes from a quiet one to one that could be quite busy for a few weeks.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:04 am Back to back dismal Januaries... unless Fri can pull a rabbit out of its hat.

I believe 4 of those January duds were followed with double digit February's

Yes and with the warmer risks and more active pattern coming, the chances for a big one will be there.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:23 am I see one more shot at light snow for January and that will be a possible system for Thurs night and Friday, the 27-28th. With this system, can we see any interaction before the East Coast low takes over? CMC has a partial phase. GFS and Euro are trying. They all three generate a little QPF over the region. Of course, the earlier the phase the better for us, but one to watch. This storm was supposed to stay offshore. Now looking like a legit big deal for the Interior New England folks and maybe I-95, depends on track. Further west the better for our snow prospects in the OV of course.

I bet the NYC/New England weenies on AmericanWX are already freaking out

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:23 am I see one more shot at light snow for January and that will be a possible system for Thurs night and Friday, the 27-28th. With this system, can we see any interaction before the East Coast low takes over? CMC has a partial phase. GFS and Euro are trying. They all three generate a little QPF over the region. Of course, the earlier the phase the better for us, but one to watch. This storm was supposed to stay offshore. Now looking like a legit big deal for the Interior New England folks and maybe I-95, depends on track. Further west the better for our snow prospects in the OV of course.

I bet the NYC/New England weenies on AmericanWX are already freaking out

And the Mid ATL Weens too.