Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:18 pm So far so good... everything has been virtually along and / or SE of I-71. 0.00" so far here. But I kind of expected it. I had 83 earlier. Down to 77 now with the frontal passage. The lower dews are still back across the NW 1/2 of Indiana so it'll be a while before we start to feel better here.

Agree Les and we may get a few showers later this evening but nothing that would give us more than a 1/10 of an inch. By Tuesday evening once the sun sets it may feel a little chilly.

That rain shield is expanding , a rainy evening especially counties bordering the river

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:02 pm That rain shield is expanding , a rainy evening especially counties bordering the river

I saw that and it will be close and how far north does that shield get before it heads off to the southeast. I may miss the evening forecast if it expands to far north. Will be a steady light rain but could get more than 1/10 if it gets into the local tri-state area. Moist air trying to go over somewhat cooler air at the surface can produce a nice light rain

Afternoon AFD from the boys confirms our thinking... the severe aspect of the forecast has about an hour or so to go for the East then it's over. Only some light rain remains on the backside of the front as Bgoney and Tim have mentioned.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Convection initiated very late morning into early afternoon
initially in central Ohio, with that activity moving east
quickly away from the ILN FA. In the meantime, additional
activity sprouted quickly /just/ to the south of the I-71
corridor being between Wilmington and northern KY along a
prefrontal trof. This storm activity has shown the most
consistently-robust updrafts through the afternoon thus far, but
even this activity will be exiting the ILN FA by 5 PM. Expect
the severe threat should diminish greatly /if not altogether/ by
5 PM for the entire local area, even the lower Scioto Valley
and northeast KY. The ongoing severe thunderstorm watch will
most certainly be cancelled prior to its expiration time of 8
PM.

Will see some overrunning light rain overspread the ILN FA early
this evening, which will expand in coverage and perhaps even
intensity late this evening before the backside works east late
tonight, ending from west to east between midnight and 4 AM or
so. A clearing trend is expected during the predawn hours,
especially for WC OH and EC IN, with that clearing line
advancing to the ESE toward the end of the near term period and
beyond.

Surface obs show the infiltration of drier LL air is already
underway, with DPs already in the upper 50s in WC OH as winds
have shifted around to the northwest. Will see this dry air
advection continue through the evening, even with the fairly
widespread overrunning light rain during this period. In fact,
low temps will bottom out around 50 degrees in WC OH to upper
50s in the lower Scioto Valley/NE KY by sunrise Tuesday.

Nice band of radar-estimates of 0.50-1.00” right across the area from earlier. Sure did come down in buckets there for a while at my place.

More heavy rain and T-showers for our SE counties

Temp is down to 71 here with some light rain falling. Not much at all for the backside NW of I-71 thank goodness.

Just a few light showers this evening as the heavier rains continue to push out of our forum coverage area. Dews are dropping now which is nice... dew is down to 62 currently imby with dews in the 50s not far away. Probably will be here in the next couple of hours. Drier air will continue to filter in with dews probably dropping into the 40s at some point tonight or tomorrow. I think we'll see dews in the 50s for Wed and hopefully Thurs before the humidity roars back in here on Friday. Temp wise... Low 70s at best tomorrow with U70s or so Wed. By Thurs, the warmth returns with the mid and upper 80s. Then you know what's after that. Storm chances lol Lows the next 3 nights in the 50s. Coolest night is Tues where some U40s would not surprise me in rural valleys. We'll see!

My Dad will be accompanying a cousin of ours from Anderson, IN to an annual boat race event that's on the Ohio River near Madison, IN on Sat July 3rd. The racing is both the 3rd and 4th but I believe Dad is just going down to it on the 3rd.

Will be keeping close tabs here on that weekend's forecast.

Currently 64 here in G'ville and progged for around 50 Tues morning. Great day in store as my folks and I go to Kettering to take care of some business.

We are in the process of building a new home, and we need the rain to stop, or at the very least some longer dry periods? Can anyone offer any hope?

pianoman wrote: ↑Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:10 pm We are in the process of building a new home, and we need the rain to stop, or at the very least some longer dry periods? Can anyone offer any hope?

Congratulations, and unfortunately for your situation, as was brought up yesterday in the extended outlook conversation, there doesn't appear to be a long dry spell in the cards at least for the next 2or 3 weeks. But there are still uncertainties on how much rain. For the late week and weekend models have stalled the front a little further west so the large amounts stay in Missouri/IL/IN, for now, but to early in the game not to expect possible changes in the heavy axis of moisture

Natures balancing act in full display

Good morning all! Dews in the 40s and temps in the 50s! Love it! Too bad it won't last.

Still no changes to anything I've said guys. Looking good until Friday when a front moves in. It still looks to stall on top of us this weekend and throughout most of next week. The question for the big holiday weekend is this: Can the front ever slip far enough south to give us the window us pyros need or do the tropics cause problems in that regard to keep the rain machine, or chances of rain, going? We'll just have to wait and see.

Good Morning and so nice for late June. Getting any outside work should be easy to do over the next few days before more rain is headed this way. Les made a great point this morning that the latest models showed the heaviest rains just to the west but something we will need to monitor over the next few days. Trying to pinpoint rainfall amounts will not be easy as somebody in the tri-state will have some training and this can lead to several inches of rain while others will get rain but in lesser amounts.

Got down to 57 here and at CVG this morning. Should be able to drop even more with clear skies and the high overhead tonight. I like 52 to 55 at CVG. Still think an isolated upper 40 degree reading is possible in rural, sheltered valleys.

Good morning Tim! That's pretty much been the pattern although everyone seems to be getting wet, some areas have been excessively wet. I'd say SE IN has been excessively wet, CVG area, and some of our I-70 posters too. Eastern and SE counties have seen less precip overall. but I believe are still in good shape.

To all: If your area has been in an actual screw zone, please post so we know.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/22/goode- ... -blog-622/

Down to 55 in my hood this morning - felt much better than yesterday AM for sure!

Great weather talk by Brian this morning. He made the point about the heat in the west and a great point about how these heat ridges can be hard to move and if that continues which it should over the next 2 weeks then my call of a hot summer may go down the tubes which I would love to see. Starting later Friday into next week looks to be a wet period but not so much in terms of severe weather. Sure any thunderstorm can become severe but this situation looks more like a heavy rain event and one that can lead to flooding and also flash flooding. Way to soon to get exact on placement and lets hope its progressive but in the summer things move slower and this can be a problem. The upcoming period is about as busy that you will see during this time of year and I do feel for the lawn service folks who seem to be catching up at all times. I will be in SC next week and they look to get some rain as well but they may end up with another tropical system around the 4th or so to continue the wet weather down there which has been going on for 2 years or the same amount of time I have been going back and forth lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:16 am Great weather talk by Brian this morning. He made the point about the heat in the west and a great point about how these heat ridges can be hard to move and if that continues which it should over the next 2 weeks then my call of a hot summer may go down the tubes which I would love to see. Starting later Friday into next week looks to be a wet period but not so much in terms of severe weather. Sure any thunderstorm can become severe but this situation looks more like a heavy rain event and one that can lead to flooding and also flash flooding. Way to soon to get exact on placement and lets hope its progressive but in the summer things move slower and this can be a problem. The upcoming period is about as busy that you will see during this time of year and I do feel for the lawn service folks who seem to be catching up at all times. I will be in SC next week and they look to get some rain as well but they may end up with another tropical system around the 4th or so to continue the wet weather down there which has been going on for 2 years or the same amount of time I have been going back and forth lol.

Hey Tim, I can see this wet pattern riding over the ridge out west continuing for a while. We went camping up at New Paris OH last weekend and while we had a tornado touch down around 15 miles north us, the biggest issue we had was the heavy rains flooding the campgrounds...there were snapping turtles coming out of the storm drainage pipes. We love our camping and may have to deal with more of these situations in the coming weeks. If we mix in a tropical system in this pattern who knows what would happen.

Hey Joe... let's just hope that if it does occur, that we get a Claudette situation where we get missed.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:37 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:16 am Great weather talk by Brian this morning. He made the point about the heat in the west and a great point about how these heat ridges can be hard to move and if that continues which it should over the next 2 weeks then my call of a hot summer may go down the tubes which I would love to see. Starting later Friday into next week looks to be a wet period but not so much in terms of severe weather. Sure any thunderstorm can become severe but this situation looks more like a heavy rain event and one that can lead to flooding and also flash flooding. Way to soon to get exact on placement and lets hope its progressive but in the summer things move slower and this can be a problem. The upcoming period is about as busy that you will see during this time of year and I do feel for the lawn service folks who seem to be catching up at all times. I will be in SC next week and they look to get some rain as well but they may end up with another tropical system around the 4th or so to continue the wet weather down there which has been going on for 2 years or the same amount of time I have been going back and forth lol.

Hey Tim, I can see this wet pattern riding over the ridge out west continuing for a while. We went camping up at New Paris OH last weekend and while we had a tornado touch down around 15 miles north us, the biggest issue we had was the heavy rains flooding the campgrounds...there were snapping turtles coming out of the storm drainage pipes. We love our camping and may have to deal with more of these situations in the coming weeks. If we mix in a tropical system in this pattern who knows what would happen.

Hey Joe its great hearing from you and your post is dead on. I hope the rains calm down enough for your camping and if there is a tropical system who knows if that will add problems. Most tropical systems tend to stay south of us this time of year but the pattern is one that could be help to send a system further north.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:47 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:37 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:16 am Great weather talk by Brian this morning. He made the point about the heat in the west and a great point about how these heat ridges can be hard to move and if that continues which it should over the next 2 weeks then my call of a hot summer may go down the tubes which I would love to see. Starting later Friday into next week looks to be a wet period but not so much in terms of severe weather. Sure any thunderstorm can become severe but this situation looks more like a heavy rain event and one that can lead to flooding and also flash flooding. Way to soon to get exact on placement and lets hope its progressive but in the summer things move slower and this can be a problem. The upcoming period is about as busy that you will see during this time of year and I do feel for the lawn service folks who seem to be catching up at all times. I will be in SC next week and they look to get some rain as well but they may end up with another tropical system around the 4th or so to continue the wet weather down there which has been going on for 2 years or the same amount of time I have been going back and forth lol.

Hey Tim, I can see this wet pattern riding over the ridge out west continuing for a while. We went camping up at New Paris OH last weekend and while we had a tornado touch down around 15 miles north us, the biggest issue we had was the heavy rains flooding the campgrounds...there were snapping turtles coming out of the storm drainage pipes. We love our camping and may have to deal with more of these situations in the coming weeks. If we mix in a tropical system in this pattern who knows what would happen.

Hey Joe its great hearing from you and your post is dead on. I hope the rains calm down enough for your camping and if there is a tropical system who knows if that will add problems. Most tropical systems tend to stay south of us this time of year but the pattern is one that could be help to send a system further north.

Like BG said in his video this morning, if a cold front times itself out right, it can scoop up a tropical system and send the moisture our way. Most of the time, Tim's right, the cold front usually wins and acts as a "deflector shield" but not always. So that's what we'll need to watch as we get closer to the Holiday Weekend.

June 22nd and the noon temp is 65 with a dew point of 39 at CVG. Sounds like early October weather.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:16 pm June 22nd and the noon temp is 65 with a dew point of 39 at CVG. Sounds like early October weather.

If we had some clouds, we'd be stuck in the 60s today but with the sunshine low 70s look good. Either way, I love it and I'm sure most do too unless you've got a pool lol