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Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:45 am
by tron777
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:15 am
by MVWxObserver
Talk about "fun" for people whose trash service is tomorrow AM!
High Wind Warning now and extended until 10 AM.
I'm not going to have out my gauge since 60+ mph winds progged.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:27 am
by tron777
My trash comes tomorrow morning so I might wait to put my can out until I get up in the morning. I usually have until 8am sometimes 9am before they come.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:29 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and probably going to post more today as changes will be happening quite often. First I believe the severe threat has gone up since yesterday. IMO the main reason is we have a low pressure getting stronger as it heads this way and we talked about that the past two days. By getting stronger its heading further north and west. I talked about warm fronts this morning and the first one will bring the rains later this morning and early afternoon and get the dew points to around 60. So having dew points around 60 you can get severe weather but its not perfect, however the second warm front or really just a dew point front is key for getting more severe weather. How far north will dew points go this afternoon and evening is key and will the mid-upper 60's get in our area of will it be in central Kentucky and points south. Way to close to call and that is why many posts will be needed today. More later. Btw down here in SC has been rather cloudy and cool with some mist and light rain at times and of course got an enhanced band about 1/2 way through my morning walk.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:38 am
by tron777
I think it'll be a rapidly changing evolution. The low on the Meso Page is already forming and getting its act together over the ARK-LA-TEX area. Pressure falls have it progged to move towards S ILL and into Western IN later on this evening. Currently at a 1006 MB. 55+ dews are already into TN with 60+ dews over the Dixie States. I don't think we will see much sun today but the strong dynamics with this system may cause strong to severe storms in an isolated fashion even for us. Regardless, the post frontal winds will be enough to cause issues whether severe wx occurs or not. We've got a very windy 12 hours or so ahead of us from late this evening thru the 1st half of tomorrow before those winds begin to slowly calm down Fri afternoon.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:44 am
by tron777
Per the 9Z SREF Significant tornado ingredient's map... 45% gets into central KY. 30% from the river on south and 15% north of the river. So we do stand an isolated threat of a tornado occurring but Central KY on south still holds the higher risk of seeing supercells. I think for us it'll be a QCLS tornado risk with one of those brief spin up's as I've said for the last couple of days. Hail threat is very very low. High winds is the biggest hazard for AV Country with t-storms as well as post frontal.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:15 am
by winterstormjoe
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:43 am
Sure am NOT looking forward to the 10 hour windstorm on Thurs night - early Fri morning!
Prayerfully no shingles damage i.e etc.
That's my biggest worry is loosing shingles and also power outages!
Prayers!
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:19 am
by tpweather
Thunder and heavy rain in Louisville so it won't be long until we see some decent rains and yes some thunder and lightning
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:33 am
by tron777
1st tornado watch of the day likely to be issued down douth over Eastern MS and a large chunk of AL.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0252.html
1006 MB low is now better defined over the MS River near the ARK / MS border. Latest pressure falls suggest that the low will continue to deepen and move towards extreme SE MO as the day progresses.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:39 am
by tron777
12Z NAM and 12Z HRRR both agree on a low track along the ILL / IN border then into N Indiana. Low deepens into the low 990s MB by tomorrow morning. In the mid 990s as the front comes thru here. Models suggest rain coming in by 12-1pm weakening as it does so then we get more dry time from around 3-4pm onwards. Line of storms approaches with the front in that 9-11pm range. Sounding show strong winds and an isolated tornado being possible. My thoughts look pretty good at this point. After midnight, we are post frontal and the wind crank thru the 1st part of Friday.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:03 pm
by tron777
Rain is just about here to my hood. Should be starting up shortly.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:52 pm
by tron777
Seen a couple of good heavy downpours so far. No thunder or lightning. 62 degrees...
EDIT: Heavy down pour #3 in progress.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:22 pm
by tron777
0.31" as of 1pm at CVG.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:27 pm
by BookNerdCarp
3 heavy downpours so far
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:37 pm
by Bgoney
Nothing much here , a brief shower, just a trace so far. Fizzled out IMBY
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:37 pm
by BookNerdCarp
Kind of a weird selection of counties -
INZ073-074-OHZ073-074-077-078-080-260300-
/O.UPG.KILN.WI.Y.0003.210326T0200Z-210326T1400Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.HW.W.0001.210326T0200Z-210326T1400Z/
Ripley-Dearborn-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Highland-
Including the cities of Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford,
Hillsboro, and Greenfield
134 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Ripley and Dearborn Counties. In Ohio,
Ross, Hocking, Hamilton, Clermont and Highland Counties.
* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:46 pm
by tpweather
Not seeing tons of sunshine breaking out over western Ky and Tn. Lets see over the next couple of hours if there is a change but the clouds are hanging tough with this system. Sure can get severe weather without a period of sunshine but since up this way the sunshine would up those chances. No doubt a period of very strong winds later tonight and early Friday.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:47 pm
by tron777
A break in the rain is pushing in from the SW so I had rain for about an hour maybe hour and a half that's it. Much less then what the models originally showed. Visible is showing some sun peaking thru from time to time to our SW. We'll see if any of that can help us out CAPE wise later.
1kmv.gif
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:48 pm
by tron777
Dews are starting to get better to the SW as well.
Dews.gif
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:05 pm
by tron777
0.41" total as of 2pm at CVG.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:11 pm
by Sawdoggie
Wilmington upgraded another tier of counties including Hamilton and Clermont to a high wind warning.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:18 pm
by tron777
Starting to see some SB CAPE of 500 J/kg over Southern / Western KY. Bulk shear and helicity are very impressive so we're just waiting to see how much, if any CAPE we can get by this evening. Skies are brightening up here. No sun but not that heavy dense overcast we saw earlier.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:35 pm
by tron777
Sun is now trying to peak out here. Interesting.... Latest visible shot continues to show thinning clouds and some sun breaks S of the river down into TN. Don't know if it'll be enough but it's worth watching IMO. Dews are up into the mid 50s now at CVG. Would like to see 60 if possible.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:49 pm
by tpweather
Tornado warning for the northern part of Greenville County here in South Carolina. Was not paying much attention to the weather down here. The warning is for the northern part of the county and I live in the southern part of the county about 5 miles south of downtown Greenville.
Re: March 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:59 pm
by tron777
62 here with a dew of 57. Total rainfall: 0.37"
Wow Tim! Glad that one will miss you.