Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 1:19 pm ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Scattered to numerous snow showers expected. Additional
snow accumulations one inch or less. Winds gusting as high as 40
mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 1:57 pm Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 2:06 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 1:57 pm Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

I agree. I'm in a wonderful mood thanks to today! Love going into cold spells with snow cover. Then in January we got snow on snow. We have a chance to do that again in Feb if next week brings us something. I think we'll see snow it's just a question of how much.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 2:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 2:06 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 1:57 pm Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

I agree. I'm in a wonderful mood thanks to today! Love going into cold spells with snow cover. Then in January we got snow on snow. We have a chance to do that again in Feb if next week brings us something. I think we'll see snow it's just a question of how much.

I agree Les and even with say .15 you can get 2-3 inches so the ratio's are high and seen some forecasts out in the central plains calling for ratio's that could be 25-1. That is very high and seldom around these parts. Again I don't believe we hit that but 15-1 and maybe 18-1 is fine. Like to see a trough somewhat deeper and these could add a little more ridging over our area. Again a few days away and models are not exactly good with upper systems and especially if you have a couple that may come through and then they choose which one to strengthen. Fun and games this week and even after this week I could see another period in March that could bring us some winter weather

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:02 am Good morning all! Lots to look at this morning so get some coffee and let's talk some weather! Flood warnings and flood watches will be expiring as time goes on. 2.64" for rainfall officially at CVG as of the 7am reading. 2-4" has fallen across the tri-state area depending on your location so the forecast worked out great! Now... we have rain / snow mixed changing to all snow moving into the region now. Temp is 34 and falling. Expect 1"+ per hour snowfall rates with big flakes and falling temps. Winds to 30 mph in gusts also. 1-3" of snow can be expected thru 10am. Then it is over and we transition to isolated snow showers for the rest of the day. Road temps are falling quickly too so the winter weather advisory remains in effect throughout the day today. Any remaining water that is not treated will freeze up today. Could see some slick spots in the morning also for those that have to go to work like me on Pres Day.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:16 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:02 am Good morning all! Lots to look at this morning so get some coffee and let's talk some weather! Flood warnings and flood watches will be expiring as time goes on. 2.64" for rainfall officially at CVG as of the 7am reading. 2-4" has fallen across the tri-state area depending on your location so the forecast worked out great! Now... we have rain / snow mixed changing to all snow moving into the region now. Temp is 34 and falling. Expect 1"+ per hour snowfall rates with big flakes and falling temps. Winds to 30 mph in gusts also. 1-3" of snow can be expected thru 10am. Then it is over and we transition to isolated snow showers for the rest of the day. Road temps are falling quickly too so the winter weather advisory remains in effect throughout the day today. Any remaining water that is not treated will freeze up today. Could see some slick spots in the morning also for those that have to go to work like me on Pres Day.

Sorry for not coming to post sooner, but Sunday around 7:20am I had Thundersnow here in Colerain. I am thinking it was right at onset of the snow. I had a restless night with all the rain as I was worried about my basement sump pump so I never got into a deep sleep. I woke up because I heard the sound, after I realized it wasn't my pump, thought maybe it was a jet, but quickly realized it wasn't that either. Was pretty cool to see it start snowing, but I ended up falling into a pretty good sleep then since I figured at least the basement was finally in the clear. But mark it down, there was Thundersnow with that one!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:53 pm Les your forecast looks good for the remainder of February. Still looking at next month and I agree no doubt one more chance of some winter weather but maybe two but just a little early to talk about the second shot of cold. My forecast back in the fall was to have Feb and March give us an early start to spring and dead wrong on that call

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:53 pm Les your forecast looks good for the remainder of February. Still looking at next month and I agree no doubt one more chance of some winter weather but maybe two but just a little early to talk about the second shot of cold. My forecast back in the fall was to have Feb and March give us an early start to spring and dead wrong on that call

After the brief warm up, models show the -EPO returning by months end and into the 1st week plus of March with a deep trough over the Central and Eastern US. I am inclined to believe it per MJO cold phases.