February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Seeing some light flurries now. Still holding at 29 degrees.

[tron777]

The WWA has been extended for everyone until midnight tonight. From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Synoptic widespread snow will shift east out of the area this
afternoon. Thereafter, cyclonic flow and CAA will steepen low
level lapse rates, allowing scattered to numerous snow showers
to develop. These snow showers will continue into this evening.
Some snow showers may produce reduced visibilities and a quick
burst of heavier snow. Although an inch or less of additional
snow accumulation is forecast, given falling temperatures (below
freezing), and wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, conditions
will be conducive to keep some roadways slick/icy if not
treated. As a result, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory
for the entire region until midnight tonight.

[tron777]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Scattered to numerous snow showers expected. Additional
snow accumulations one inch or less. Winds gusting as high as 40
mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[tpweather]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Scattered to numerous snow showers expected. Additional
snow accumulations one inch or less. Winds gusting as high as 40
mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Seems like a good call with temps falling. Would not be surprised if they keep it until say 10am Monday

[tron777]

As the boys have mentioned, lapse rates are getting better now.

laps.gif

[tpweather]

Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

[tron777]

Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

I agree. I'm in a wonderful mood thanks to today! Love going into cold spells with snow cover. Then in January we got snow on snow. We have a chance to do that again in Feb if next week brings us something. I think we'll see snow it's just a question of how much.

[tpweather]

Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

I agree. I'm in a wonderful mood thanks to today! Love going into cold spells with snow cover. Then in January we got snow on snow. We have a chance to do that again in Feb if next week brings us something. I think we'll see snow it's just a question of how much.

I agree Les and even with say .15 you can get 2-3 inches so the ratio's are high and seen some forecasts out in the central plains calling for ratio's that could be 25-1. That is very high and seldom around these parts. Again I don't believe we hit that but 15-1 and maybe 18-1 is fine. Like to see a trough somewhat deeper and these could add a little more ridging over our area. Again a few days away and models are not exactly good with upper systems and especially if you have a couple that may come through and then they choose which one to strengthen. Fun and games this week and even after this week I could see another period in March that could bring us some winter weather

[tron777]

Les should see some decent snow showers between 3p-6p. Could see a quick 1/2 inch in isolated sports but any shower can make roads slick. Don't give up on the mid-week system and lets look at the later models today as there is still plenty of items that need to be figured out either way.

I agree. I'm in a wonderful mood thanks to today! Love going into cold spells with snow cover. Then in January we got snow on snow. We have a chance to do that again in Feb if next week brings us something. I think we'll see snow it's just a question of how much.

I agree Les and even with say .15 you can get 2-3 inches so the ratio's are high and seen some forecasts out in the central plains calling for ratio's that could be 25-1. That is very high and seldom around these parts. Again I don't believe we hit that but 15-1 and maybe 18-1 is fine. Like to see a trough somewhat deeper and these could add a little more ridging over our area. Again a few days away and models are not exactly good with upper systems and especially if you have a couple that may come through and then they choose which one to strengthen. Fun and games this week and even after this week I could see another period in March that could bring us some winter weather

We look to warm up in late Feb or early March, briefly and perhaps into the 60s even before the MJO gets moving again in Phases 1 and 2 so winter should have one last hurrah before we wrap it up for the season.

[tpweather]

Lets see if the nam can repeat its last run.

[tron777]

Local 12 Snow.jpg

[tron777]

2.8" officially at CVG today per the 5pm climate report.

[tpweather]

I do want to mention that the flooding to the south of here is starting to come to light and its not good. Many lives lost with entire cities under water and at least 9 folks have died. Some smaller damns breached as well. We thought is was going to be bad and some areas got close to 8 inches of rain and for mid-Feb you don't have foliage to help in soaking up the rain. My guess the number of folks who lose their life will go up over the next few days and in the next few days heavy snow and very cold temps will not help as many folks have no power.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 43, DAY 39 and CMH 41 in the predawn today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We are cold today and tomorrow but no issues as we will remain dry. Snow on Wed which we are tracking in the other thread. We don't warm up above freezing until probably this weekend. We may get back to normal by Sunday or Monday of next week which is the mid 40s.

[tron777]

I just started up my car to warm it up and it's snowing here LOL 19 degrees dew of 15.

[House of Cards]

Good morning all! Lots to look at this morning so get some coffee and let's talk some weather! Flood warnings and flood watches will be expiring as time goes on. 2.64" for rainfall officially at CVG as of the 7am reading. 2-4" has fallen across the tri-state area depending on your location so the forecast worked out great! Now... we have rain / snow mixed changing to all snow moving into the region now. Temp is 34 and falling. Expect 1"+ per hour snowfall rates with big flakes and falling temps. Winds to 30 mph in gusts also. 1-3" of snow can be expected thru 10am. Then it is over and we transition to isolated snow showers for the rest of the day. Road temps are falling quickly too so the winter weather advisory remains in effect throughout the day today. Any remaining water that is not treated will freeze up today. Could see some slick spots in the morning also for those that have to go to work like me on Pres Day.

Sorry for not coming to post sooner, but Sunday around 7:20am I had Thundersnow here in Colerain. I am thinking it was right at onset of the snow. I had a restless night with all the rain as I was worried about my basement sump pump so I never got into a deep sleep. I woke up because I heard the sound, after I realized it wasn't my pump, thought maybe it was a jet, but quickly realized it wasn't that either. Was pretty cool to see it start snowing, but I ended up falling into a pretty good sleep then since I figured at least the basement was finally in the clear. But mark it down, there was Thundersnow with that one!

[tron777]

Good morning all! Lots to look at this morning so get some coffee and let's talk some weather! Flood warnings and flood watches will be expiring as time goes on. 2.64" for rainfall officially at CVG as of the 7am reading. 2-4" has fallen across the tri-state area depending on your location so the forecast worked out great! Now... we have rain / snow mixed changing to all snow moving into the region now. Temp is 34 and falling. Expect 1"+ per hour snowfall rates with big flakes and falling temps. Winds to 30 mph in gusts also. 1-3" of snow can be expected thru 10am. Then it is over and we transition to isolated snow showers for the rest of the day. Road temps are falling quickly too so the winter weather advisory remains in effect throughout the day today. Any remaining water that is not treated will freeze up today. Could see some slick spots in the morning also for those that have to go to work like me on Pres Day.

Sorry for not coming to post sooner, but Sunday around 7:20am I had Thundersnow here in Colerain. I am thinking it was right at onset of the snow. I had a restless night with all the rain as I was worried about my basement sump pump so I never got into a deep sleep. I woke up because I heard the sound, after I realized it wasn't my pump, thought maybe it was a jet, but quickly realized it wasn't that either. Was pretty cool to see it start snowing, but I ended up falling into a pretty good sleep then since I figured at least the basement was finally in the clear. But mark it down, there was Thundersnow with that one!

Awesome Dave! Guidance showed the chance. Glad to see that it was you who received it!

[tron777]

Looks like we may see some very light snow in the morning. The 18Z Euro actually gives CVG measurable precip 0.02" QPF.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 23 and CMH 25 for President's Day.

[tron777]

Good morning! After we get thru this cold filled week, a warming trend occurs. Upper 40s maybe by Monday of next week? That will feel good to be back at normal lol It maybe short lived (watching the MJO) so we'll see how the long term transpires as time goes on.

[tron777]

To further explain my above post... We do look to warm up by Sunday and going into next week. IMO due to the MJO looping back into Phase 8, then 1, 2 etc... I believe we turn cold and have snow chances returning by the end of Feb and into early March. I think we'll have one more period to keep an eye on before we call it a season. I will be tracking this as we go along in time so stay tuned!

[tpweather]

Les your forecast looks good for the remainder of February. Still looking at next month and I agree no doubt one more chance of some winter weather but maybe two but just a little early to talk about the second shot of cold. My forecast back in the fall was to have Feb and March give us an early start to spring and dead wrong on that call

[tron777]

Les your forecast looks good for the remainder of February. Still looking at next month and I agree no doubt one more chance of some winter weather but maybe two but just a little early to talk about the second shot of cold. My forecast back in the fall was to have Feb and March give us an early start to spring and dead wrong on that call

After the brief warm up, models show the -EPO returning by months end and into the 1st week plus of March with a deep trough over the Central and Eastern US. I am inclined to believe it per MJO cold phases.

[airwolf76]

Les your forecast looks good for the remainder of February. Still looking at next month and I agree no doubt one more chance of some winter weather but maybe two but just a little early to talk about the second shot of cold. My forecast back in the fall was to have Feb and March give us an early start to spring and dead wrong on that call

After the brief warm up, models show the -EPO returning by months end and into the 1st week plus of March with a deep trough over the Central and Eastern US. I am inclined to believe it per MJO cold phases.

that is what i am seeing also. it looks like we get a break till the very end of this month. then game on again going into early March. winter is not over. at least not till mid - late March probably