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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:08 pm
by dce
A shift north so far on the 18z foreign models with the heavier snow band. The short range Canadian and now the Euro. Here's the 12z Euro compared to the 18z. Being on I-70 I'm looking for all the north trends I can get.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
by tron777
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 pm
by MVWxObserver
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:13 pm
What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!
Thanks!
Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.
My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.
Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:17 pm
by tron777
CB's first call:
CB First Call.jpg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:19 pm
by tpweather
Good Evening and a nice break from the weather world. Do want to make a correction and yes you have transfer of energy over the mountains and this happens all the time but my point was this is not where a stronger system off the east coast is the bully and taking away the energy from the other side of the mountains. Just a natural progression and without the stronger southeast ridge getting a system to develop off the coast was not going to happen.
I made sure I watched channel 5 tonight and they use the Euro 99.9 percent of the time. Kevin still had high amounts and not what the mid-day Euro was showing. He does have a nice period of sleet for us though and again that is really the hardest question to answer. Normally these areas of sleet are narrow but stubborn once they get going and no doubt can sometimes cut your snow totals in half. I still have 2-4 inches during the first 6 hours and 2-4 the last 6 hours but what happens really at the height of the storm. Somebody within 50 miles of Cvg will most likely end up with over a foot before all is said and done. Ice storm and that imo looks to be near Lexington and southeast of there. I-70 and folks between Indy and Dayton looks like a solid 6-10 inch snow but near Columbus I have more of a 4-8 because of the darn northeast wind.
The energy from the system heading into the west coast is really nice and I always looks at this because this gives you a base to work with and sometimes miss this part of the equation but for most of the week done well.
So ready for the evening model runs and then a break until morning. Have a few things to attend to in the morning but will be on in the afternoon before the NFL later in the afternoon
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
by cincy02
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:21 pm
by MVWxObserver
----
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:21 pm
by dce
Some of the Hres models seem to have a little stronger of a low pressure compared to the global models. That would be the difference in the northerly shield of the precip they are depicting. Here is the 12z FV3 model and 18z Nam. 999 and 1000 mb respectively.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:27 pm
by MJSun
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:43 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:41 pm
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:38 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:35 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:33 pm
WAVEs map seems to correspond pretty well with what the NWS in Louisville is saying in their AFD.
For sure! It's going to be an interesting next 24 hours.
That’s what we say every time around here!
Lol it will be ok! Just stay calm
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:28 pm
by dce
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Good trends on the SREF as you stated. The 15z vs the 21z. More snow for everyone on this run. I like the trends for the Dayton crew. 00z runs will be quite telling for us northern posters.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:30 pm
by wrmwxfreak
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 pm
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:13 pm
What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!
Thanks!
Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.
My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.
Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.
Thank you. Right now, I feel terrible. Can’t get much worse. I’m a kidney transplant recipient, so I’m immunosuppressed, and I get hit hard with these things. Doc called in Paxlovid, so hoping I feel better soon.
Here’s hoping for enough snow to call off Monday (and maybe even Tuesday!)..
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:30 pm
by tron777
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Holy crap! Almost 2" of QPF!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:36 pm
by tron777
The SREF Plumes should be VERY entertaining when they come out in a little while.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
by Pete1
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:28 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Good trends on the SREF as you stated. The 15z vs the 21z. More snow for everyone on this run. I like the trends for the Dayton crew. 00z runs will be quite telling for us northern posters.
Trust me when I say that Les and I don’t think this is a “good” trend
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
by MattyD
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:36 pm
The SREF Plumes should be VERY entertaining when they come out in a little while.
What time is that?
Headed out in a bit for some Christmas with Friends that got rescheduled due to the flu! That flu was no joke!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:41 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:28 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Good trends on the SREF as you stated. The 15z vs the 21z. More snow for everyone on this run. I like the trends for the Dayton crew. 00z runs will be quite telling for us northern posters.
Trust me when I say that Les and I don’t think this is a “good” trend
May not be too bad. We'll see. As long as that stupid ice stays south I am fine with whatever else happens. Christ, we're used to sleet. We may as well come to expect it.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:42 pm
by tron777
MattyD wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:36 pm
The SREF Plumes should be VERY entertaining when they come out in a little while.
What time is that?
Headed out in a bit for some Christmas with Friends that got rescheduled due to the flu! That flu was no joke!
I'm trying to remember lol If I am wrong someone will correct me. 8 or 8:30ish or something. Should be before the 0z NAM which is 9pm.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:44 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:41 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:28 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Good trends on the SREF as you stated. The 15z vs the 21z. More snow for everyone on this run. I like the trends for the Dayton crew. 00z runs will be quite telling for us northern posters.
Trust me when I say that Les and I don’t think this is a “good” trend
May not be too bad. We'll see. As long as that stupid ice stays south I am fine with whatever else happens. Christ, we're used to sleet. We may as well come to expect it.
Haha. Yes, Burlington Ky is the sleet capital of the world !!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:45 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:44 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:41 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:28 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Good trends on the SREF as you stated. The 15z vs the 21z. More snow for everyone on this run. I like the trends for the Dayton crew. 00z runs will be quite telling for us northern posters.
Trust me when I say that Les and I don’t think this is a “good” trend
May not be too bad. We'll see. As long as that stupid ice stays south I am fine with whatever else happens. Christ, we're used to sleet. We may as well come to expect it.
Haha. Yes, Burlington Ky is the sleet capital of the world !!
You know it! We Dome Up in the summer and get Sleeted On in winter! LMAO!!!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:50 pm
by dce
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:39 pm
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:28 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:20 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:10 pm
cincy02 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:07 pm
Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.
Agreed and I saw the 18Z HRRR to your point.
21Z SREF continues that trend of being north(more than the globals). Its juicier for everyone so far through 57.
Good trends on the SREF as you stated. The 15z vs the 21z. More snow for everyone on this run. I like the trends for the Dayton crew. 00z runs will be quite telling for us northern posters.
Trust me when I say that Les and I don’t think this is a “good” trend
All perspective I suppose!
It did shift the 6 inch line south to include all of Boone, Kenton, and Campbell counties though.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:52 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:19 pm
Good Evening and a nice break from the weather world. Do want to make a correction and yes you have transfer of energy over the mountains and this happens all the time but my point was this is not where a stronger system off the east coast is the bully and taking away the energy from the other side of the mountains. Just a natural progression and without the stronger southeast ridge getting a system to develop off the coast was not going to happen.
I made sure I watched channel 5 tonight and they use the Euro 99.9 percent of the time. Kevin still had high amounts and not what the mid-day Euro was showing. He does have a nice period of sleet for us though and again that is really the hardest question to answer. Normally these areas of sleet are narrow but stubborn once they get going and no doubt can sometimes cut your snow totals in half. I still have 2-4 inches during the first 6 hours and 2-4 the last 6 hours but what happens really at the height of the storm. Somebody within 50 miles of Cvg will most likely end up with over a foot before all is said and done. Ice storm and that imo looks to be near Lexington and southeast of there. I-70 and folks between Indy and Dayton looks like a solid 6-10 inch snow but near Columbus I have more of a 4-8 because of the darn northeast wind.
The energy from the system heading into the west coast is really nice and I always looks at this because this gives you a base to work with and sometimes miss this part of the equation but for most of the week done well.
So ready for the evening model runs and then a break until morning. Have a few things to attend to in the morning but will be on in the afternoon before the NFL later in the afternoon
Hey Tim! It's all good. I kind of figured that's what you meant but def appreciate the clarification.
Such a fun system to try and figure out that is for sure. Strength, duration, precip type. If the general public only knew what it takes to put together a forecast lol
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:02 pm
by Pete1
Les. What time are the next significant model runs?
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:09 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:02 pm
Les. What time are the next significant model runs?
HRRR - Running now
NAM - 9pm
RGEM - 10pm
GFS - 10:30pm
CMC - 11pm
Euro - Midnight
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:12 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:09 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:02 pm
Les. What time are the next significant model runs?
HRRR - Running now
NAM - 9pm
RGEM - 10pm
GFS - 10:30pm
CMC - 11pm
Euro - Midnight
Thanks Les
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:18 pm
by tpweather
The sref will be interesting as the last one we had some totals nearing 18 inches and yes a handful in the 13-16 range. I believe some of that is sleet related but if somehow we can stay snow for the duration a foot of snow possible and not many storms of double digits around these parts.
