Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 6:25 pm 23 mph forward speed……. Kind of looks still more east of NHC track.

I agree. We know that hurricanes never take a straight line , they wobble back and forth, but the latest satellite imagery I've seen, it looks to be moving more NE then N in my opinion.

You guys mentioned earlier, with that forward speed and the strong winds reaching further inland, Georgia and the southern smokies going to be major tree damage

My guess is somewhere between Perry and Jena, FL is where the center should make landfall if it maintains the same track of course. Probably closer to Perry then Jena.

Okay guys, keep the discussion going! I'll be back early in the morning as usual. Gonna be a fun ride into work and on the way home for that matter too tomorrow. Ugh... stay safe friends!

A little drizzle earlier but it’s mostly been virga on radar , at least Imby.

CVG reached 72, DAY 74 and CMH 75 today.

Still looks a bit east of NHC track

You can see these on COD website

Mid level water vapor loop with the upper level low to our west/sw and Helene

As far as the forecast track , the GFS and Euro are going to win over what the NHC hurricane models had for the last 24-36 hrs with a slightly more east landfall

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:01 pm Mid level water vapor loop with the upper level low to our west/sw and Helene



IMG_2331.gif

What a shot and may use that for my screen saver

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:06 pm As far as the forecast track , the GFS and Euro are going to win over what the NHC hurricane models had for the last 24-36 hrs with a slightly more east landfall

I agree and the Gfs was first with the eastward track and the Euro followed rather quickly. Got a feeling that FEMA is going to be busy for months and not only with the Hurricane but the heavy rains in the western Carolina;s has been historic. Don't use that word often but with the terrain around there the water will no doubt wipe out some roadways and would not be surprise if you see some areas of I-26 and I-40 with major damage. Locally here and still no changes and we just wait to yes some much needed rain. Was out earlier and started to get into that fall feeling where you have cloud covers and it just gets dark so much earlier.

Should make landfall within an hour

Recon showing a pressure of 938mb

Looks like a slight turn north at the end. Making the most out of what’s left of open water

NE eyewall about to make landfall if it hasn’t already

With re to Helene, I wonder about Mt. Airy, NC, not far from the Foothills region e.g. as that is where my sister Retha resides and she'll be heading for home on Sat morning. She'd like to arrive home sometime Sat evening as she wants to celebrate her 60th bday with her husband, mil, daughter, and son which is that day.

Good morning! Helene made landfall after 11pm last night about 10 miles West of Perry, FL as a Cat 4 monster. She's now moving over GA as a Cat 1 per the 4am advisory from the NHC. The center is now over Dublin, GA which is SE of Macon. Raining locally as expected and that will only pick up as the day wears on. We are also under a high wind warning now for the Dayton and Cincy areas. As I've been saying, prepare for a power outage just in case.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.

Rainfall amounts at this time:

CVG - 0.27"
Me - 0.32"
Boone Co mesonet: 0.36"

Up and adam. Track remains what I would call well east of the inland forecast (NHC)in eastern Georgia. Latest WV loop

Mostly light to moderate rain shield, with only brief pulses of heavy rain , I’m not expecting to many problems with flooding , other than the usual ponding and leaves clogging storm drains. Perfect for our hard grounds . We’ll find out soon enough if the models have the winds correct or overdone in our region

5am track update NHC. Yet another correction east, now expected the curve to tak place in far eastern Tennessee . NHC has really been behind this storm instead of ahead of the storm, making adjustments after the fact. Especially the last 48 hrs

I mentioned one of the reasons why the further east track was happening yesterday, The upper low was stalled out over West KY / SW IN region instead of MO or AR., The ULL is the steering mechanism for this storm as well as the incoming trough. The rain and wind should pick up this afternoon as the remnants from Helene approaches the area. The wind should be strong as the models indicate if the low gets far enough north into Central / SKY before getting absorbed by the upper low by tonight / this weekend. If the low doesn't make it into KY and it stays down in TN, then we will dodge a bullet with the very heavy rains and stronger winds. That will be the key.

Helene continues to pick up speed too. As of the 5am advisory, she's moving N now at 30 mph and is located about 40 miles E of Macon, GA or 100 miles SE of Atlanta. She's a TS now with winds of 70 mph.