Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:10 pm Les I tend to agree once with the models and with some heat indexes to the southwest of us expected over the next few days between 110-115 this is a recipe for some decent MCS's to form and be quite strong. Exactly the placement is still tough but I believe we are in a good shape at this time though we know when once forms and moves through it can switch the placement of the next one that forms.

My beef has been the timing though. I do think we are in a good position with regards to the track of each complex but the time of day at which they move in is the unfavorable part.

Getting a shower now here in Mason.

Hey Les if the action we see to the west was only the mcs then I believe we would see nothing at all. I believe we have the dying mcs but we have the energy from last week that is moving from west to east over us today. So even with cloud cover we are able to get showers and yes some thundershowers develop as this piece of energy moves east today. The remainder of the week I do believe we are just dealing with mcs systems until Friday when we may have a cool front push through and we can get some rain just with the upper connections. Weekend still looks nice and temps near normal but humidity down a hair compared to this week

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:28 pm Hey Les if the action we see to the west was only the mcs then I believe we would see nothing at all. I believe we have the dying mcs but we have the energy from last week that is moving from west to east over us today. So even with cloud cover we are able to get showers and yes some thundershowers develop as this piece of energy moves east today. The remainder of the week I do believe we are just dealing with mcs systems until Friday when we may have a cool front push through and we can get some rain just with the upper connections. Weekend still looks nice and temps near normal but humidity down a hair compared to this week

I agree Tim with the highlighted section of your post. We'll have to see how the timing goes as I mentioned previously but the idea of more MCS's to keep an eye on is 100% correct IMO.

Misty Sprinkles just made an appearance in Indian hill

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:49 pm Misty Sprinkles just made an appearance in Indian hill

I believe I saw her at a strip club one time lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:50 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:49 pm Misty Sprinkles just made an appearance in Indian hill

I believe I saw her at a strip club one time lol

Another shower now occurring here in Mason.

CVG is reporting light rain now as of 1pm. 0.05" so far.

Downpour #3 now occurring here in Mason.

0.29" at CVG as of 2pm.

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Nothing happening on radar so I assume an MCS will blow up overnight and track into the Tri-state? That is what some guidance shows. Wait and I see I guess.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 4:16 pm Nothing happening on radar so I assume an MCS will blow up overnight and track into the Tri-state? That is what some guidance shows. Wait and I see I guess.

I believe it will blow up but exact location never easy. The one this morning was weak but over the next few days with the heat in the central plains getting involved I expect a much stronger system or systems on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is disturbed weather in Wisconsin and that could head south quickly though the models sort of showing it develop over central Indiana. Always fun to watch as models really have a hard time in figuring out when and where these will finally organize.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 4:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 4:16 pm Nothing happening on radar so I assume an MCS will blow up overnight and track into the Tri-state? That is what some guidance shows. Wait and I see I guess.

I believe it will blow up but exact location never easy. The one this morning was weak but over the next few days with the heat in the central plains getting involved I expect a much stronger system or systems on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is disturbed weather in Wisconsin and that could head south quickly though the models sort of showing it develop over central Indiana. Always fun to watch as models really have a hard time in figuring out when and where these will finally organize.

Now that I'm home, I checked the lawn and the ground is still hard as a rock despite the rain that fell yesterday. We could use 2-3" here easy. I know that won't come until the fall or unless we get a tropical system per the norm here in the OV during the summer.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:18 am Have a wonderful time JP!

Congrats Les to you, your bro and his neighbor!

Thanks Eric.

CVG reached 84 and both DAY / CMH 87 today.

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0110 UNK Dublin Wayne IN 3981 8521 Minor trees/power lines reported down in the area. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

0114 UNK Cambridge City Wayne IN 3981 8517 Minor trees/power lines reported down in the area. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

0140 5 NNW Lapel Hamilton IN 4014 8587 Possible tornado damage to wood framed building with metal siding along Strawtown Avenue near Perkinsville. Damage continued into Madison County. (IND)

0141 5 NNW Lapel Hamilton IN 4014 8587 NWS Survey determined an EF2 tornado with peak winds of 130 mph and a path length of 3.04 miles began at this location. (IND)

0147 6 NW Edgewood Madison IN 4015 8582 Possible tornado damage to Frankton-Lapel School Administration building and adjacent school buses east of Perkinsville along CR 300 N. (IND)

0148 UNK 3 ENE Brookville Franklin IN 3944 8496 Several trees knocked down. Damage to property. Possible tornado. (ILN)

0159 UNK 6 SSE Centerville Wayne IN 3973 8497 Several trees knocked down. (ILN)

0233 UNK Daleville Delaware IN 4012 8556 mPing report of minor wind damage. (IND)

0535 UNK Maineville Warren OH 3931 8423 Tree down on residence. (ILN)

0540 2 E Morrow Warren OH 3936 8409 EF1 tornado confirmed via NWS storm survey. Large tree and structure damage. Estimated maximum wind up to 95 mph. Estimated track length 8.1 miles. (ILN)

0545 UNK 4 NE Butlerville Warren OH 3933 8404 Extensive damage to a barn. Possible tornado. (ILN)

0546 UNK 2 NNW Blanchester Warren OH 3932 8401 Trees down and damage to roof of residence. Trees also down on surrounding properties. Possible tornado. (ILN)

0547 UNK 4 SSW Clarksville Warren OH 3935 8400 Many trees down on Edwardsville Road. (ILN)

0549 UNK 3 NE Ekron Meade KY 3796 8614 Report of trees down on a car and possible cabin around Abes Country Village. (LMK)

0549 UNK 2 N Blanchester Clinton OH 3932 8398 Tree in roadway. (ILN)

0550 UNK 2 NE Blanchester Clinton OH 3931 8396 Tree down across roadway. (ILN)

0553 UNK 3 E Clarksville Clinton OH 3940 8392 Tree down across road and one electric pole snapped. Road impassable. (ILN)

0554 UNK 3 NNW Martinsville Clinton OH 3936 8383 Two trees were downed at a residence on SR 350. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

0555 UNK 2 SSE Midland Clinton OH 3928 8390 Tree down along with powerlines. (ILN)

0555 UNK 1 SSE Midland Clinton OH 3929 8390 Tree down in roadway. (ILN)

0556 UNK 2 SSE Midland Clinton OH 3928 8389 Tree down across roadway. (ILN)

0605 UNK 2 ESE Laconia Harrison IN 3802 8605 Trees down on Mosquito Creek Rd near Rt 111. (LMK)

0620 UNK 2 SSE Waddy Shelby KY 3811 8505 Several trees down on Hickory Ridge between Ditto Road and Kings Highway in Waddy. (LMK)

0621 UNK Hillview Bullitt KY 3807 8569 Reports of power poles down around Lee Villa Ct and off Hwy 44 W in Shepherdsville along with power outages. (LMK)

0625 UNK 3 SW Doe Valley Meade KY 3796 8613 Power lines down near Weldon Rd and Old Mill Rd. (LMK)

0630 UNK 3 S Doe Valley Meade KY 3796 8610 Trees down all along Olin Rd. (LMK)

0734 61 1 ESE Lewisburg Mason KY 3854 8374 (ILN)

0740 UNK 1 NNW Balltown Nelson KY 3774 8551 Trees down on New Haven Rd near Nat Rogers Rd. (LMK)

0734 61 1 ESE Lewisburg Mason KY 3854 8374 (ILN)

Flash Flood Warning
INC161-OHC135-300700-
/O.NEW.KILN.FF.W.0016.240730T0340Z-240730T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1140 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
East Central Union County in east central Indiana...
Southern Preble County in west central Ohio...

* Until 300 AM EDT.

* At 1140 PM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain
across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
Eaton, Camden, West Alexandria, Gratis, College Corner, West
Elkton, Muttonville, Lake Lakengren, Sugar Valley, Wheatville,
Morning Sun, Fairhaven, Hueston Woods State Park and Goodwins
Corner.

&&

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Hickman

Its been on the dry side here all summer also but its not drought conditions and most lawns are more green then brown. you are still able to mow the lawn once a week. if however we dont end up getting more moisture next month we will be in trouble going into September which is the driest month of the year.

Good morning all and we had some big storms overnight for certain parts of the area. I heard of a possible tornado near Hamilton and another near Edwardsville (Blanchester area). Can anyone confirm or did they see anything if we have any posters in these areas? Thanks!

Rainfall amounts wise here at the Dome, it was more noise then anything else. CVG only got 0.08" and the Boone Co mesonet site picked up 0.05" About the same here. We'll try it again tonight with our next possible MCS. We should spend most of the daylight hours dry today as the current MS moves out this morning.

I'd like to also wish a very happy birthday to Mike (Mfitz730) Have a wonderful day buddy and thanks for being on our forum all these years!