April 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

86 today wow, IMBY. 85 at CVG which is a new record high! Old record was 84 set back in 2010 and 1976.

[Bgoney]

Wow . Didn’t see that coming

[tron777]

Wow . Didn’t see that coming

Me neither! What happened in my opinion, is that the boundary sank south of us, dew points dropped, and we had some great mixing of dry air all the way down so the temp could rise quickly. But no, I didn't see it either. I had 75 to 80 all week and I am 0 for 2 with an 81 and an 85.

[tron777]

Oh and I felt every bit of that record high mowing this afternoon.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and played golf today and kept telling myself its getting darn hot out here and I thought okay we may have got to 83 or 84 but I was low on that end. Les your post is dead on and no doubt why temps hit a record high.

[mikeyp]

Oh and I felt every bit of that record high mowing this afternoon.

Hahahahaha same here!!!

[tron777]

Oh and I felt every bit of that record high mowing this afternoon.

Hahahahaha same here!!!

I had to drink a cold beer afterwards to replenish the lost salt.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 85R and both DAY / CMH 78 today.

[Trevor]

Still not very enthusiastic about Wednesday’s severe potential. Another messy setup with morning clouds and rain/storms. The low weakening doesn’t help either. Add in poor frontal timing and I just don’t see things getting too crazy here locally. Marginal risk based on coverage may do it.

[tron777]

Good morning! The SPC has a marginal risk for today and Thurs with the slight risk for tomorrow pulled a little more north. Mainly the Metro and points north. If we see a messy set up like last time, then the severe threat would certainly be tempered. That is what we will need to watch out for come tomorrow.

[Trevor]

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

[tron777]

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

[Trevor]

My latest post.

[Trevor]

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

I don’t think it’s really about morning mess anymore but rather that the low is weakening so best action will be north closer to the center (best lift). Timing is also off which favors areas north and especially northeast. Haven’t really liked the setup much since I’ve been watching it over the past week and as we continue to get closer it continues to look less and less impressive. Hence why I dropped the 15% risk tomorrow and have 5% to cover an isolated severe threat.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Trev I agree about the severe weather and a weakening low pressure is key. We see this in the winter and one item I always look at is the storm gaining or losing strength. I do believe overnight we get some storms and as always looking at that 4-9a period and this should lead to some heavy rains and winds and sure we can get a strong storm but not sure we see anything severe. Later in the day I believe the severe threat is there but isolated for us and what I look for is an isolated storm by itself which is usually at the tail of a line of storms that could get strong and those kind do tend to have more rotating winds as well.

Good thing is we get some rain and I know folks want some dry weather but I am always glad when I see rain in April

[tron777]

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

I don’t think it’s really about morning mess anymore but rather that the low is weakening so best action will be north closer to the center (best lift). Timing is also off which favors areas north and especially northeast. Haven’t really liked the setup much since I’ve been watching it over the past week and as we continue to get closer it continues to look less and less impressive. Hence why I dropped the 15% risk tomorrow and have 5% to cover an isolated severe threat.

Speaking of the SPC, not sure why their convective outlooks continue to be overdone. ILN even mentioned that they felt that the marginal risk for today is even overdone. They mentioned it in their morning AFD.

[Trevor]

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

I don’t think it’s really about morning mess anymore but rather that the low is weakening so best action will be north closer to the center (best lift). Timing is also off which favors areas north and especially northeast. Haven’t really liked the setup much since I’ve been watching it over the past week and as we continue to get closer it continues to look less and less impressive. Hence why I dropped the 15% risk tomorrow and have 5% to cover an isolated severe threat.

Speaking of the SPC, not sure why their convective outlooks continue to be overdone. ILN even mentioned that they felt that the marginal risk for today is even overdone. They mentioned it in their morning AFD.

That’s why I’m doing my own now lol! They seem to have lost their conservative approach and I want to get back to that. So I’m doing my own now. So far have had a positive reception from folks on my page.

[tron777]

That’s why I’m doing my own now lol! They seem to have lost their conservative approach and I want to get back to that. So I’m doing my own now. So far have had a positive reception from folks on my page.

I saw that and left you a comment the other day as well. Just don't go all "Kevin Martin" on us!

[tron777]

12Z NAM has a weakening line of storms entering the region in the wee hours of the morning tonight. The morning Rush per this model is dry. Then, by afternoon and evening, the cold front enters the picture. As Trev mentioned, the low slowly weakens over Western Upper Michigan so the forcing and lift with the front itself won't be as great as you would otherwise expect. The NAM just isn't showing a whole lot of additional development minus I-70 and points north. That could be your best chance right there. We don't have a big temp drop either behind the front as Thurs should be a great looking day in the 70s ahead of the stronger front and push of cooler air coming in by Friday. So I'm with Trev on this one too. Marginal risk is probably fine for Wed versus the Slight risk that the SPC has out there. I checked the 12Z HRRR too and it's the same general idea.

[tron777]

[Trevor]

Looks like SPC read my post! Their new outlook matches mine to a T. Lol

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and unlike yesterday dew points have increased and this will keep the temps from rising like yesterday when the dew points fell in the afternoon. Concerning wet weather and sure we can get a shower or two this afternoon and early evening just because we have added moisture and small piece of energy passing the region.

Still expect a nice round early Wednesday morning and again some storms could get strong but not seeing any widespread severe outbreak at all. Late Wednesday and interesting set up as moisture outruns energy and does it catch up in time to form some storms. I wish I knew the answer and most likely some storms will try to fire but not expecting severe weather.

Thursday is more and more likely the wettest day of the week with a nice piece of energy hanging onto the front that stalls south of here and with somewhat cooler air rain can flow over the somewhat cooler region and you can get a nice steady rain for several hours. Again does not look severe as the system is rather weak and also weakening as it heads east.

So in terms of rainfall through Friday and I am going .5-1.0 and if you get under a thunderstorm we know those totals can exceed a inch with no problem.

A very nice spring in terms of rainfall for many in the central and eastern USA and though some regions still have some drought it has improved which is always good heading into summer

[tron777]

Looks like SPC read my post! Their new outlook matches mine to a T. Lol

I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk area bumped even further north with future updates. Marginal risk looks good to me as a CYA.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and unlike yesterday dew points have increased and this will keep the temps from rising like yesterday when the dew points fell in the afternoon. Concerning wet weather and sure we can get a shower or two this afternoon and early evening just because we have added moisture and small piece of energy passing the region.

Still expect a nice round early Wednesday morning and again some storms could get strong but not seeing any widespread severe outbreak at all. Late Wednesday and interesting set up as moisture outruns energy and does it catch up in time to form some storms. I wish I knew the answer and most likely some storms will try to fire but not expecting severe weather.

Thursday is more and more likely the wettest day of the week with a nice piece of energy hanging onto the front that stalls south of here and with somewhat cooler air rain can flow over the somewhat cooler region and you can get a nice steady rain for several hours. Again does not look severe as the system is rather weak and also weakening as it heads east.

So in terms of rainfall through Friday and I am going .5-1.0 and if you get under a thunderstorm we know those totals can exceed a inch with no problem.

A very nice spring in terms of rainfall for many in the central and eastern USA and though some regions still have some drought it has improved which is always good heading into summer

Hoping we can get into that range also Tim. The downside for tonight is that storms are weakening as they move in. Then, do we see re-development or not with the cold front? The heaviest rains maybe with that second front, Thurs night into Fri morning which starts to cool us down. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out that is for sure.

[tron777]

Not sure what happened, but this thread was locked for some reason. Not sure why or what happened but anyway, you guys should be able to post in this thread again.

Looks like CVG hit 82 today, 83 here. 86 was the record for today from 1896 so we of course fell short of that one.