Absolute Vorticity

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:42 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:36 pm

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:25 pm Route 48 south of Xenia and east of Beavercreek at 7:45am.

Were you on a Saturday field trip / impromptu snow chase, bro?

Ha! Took two bus loads of jazz band kids to a jazz fest.

Cool!

CVG reached 57, DAY 55 and CMH 50 today.

Here's a quick glance at your forecast for this week. 41 this morning so a much milder start as we talked about yesterday. 70ish for the high today. Then we get wet Tues into Wed with falling temps on Wed. Perhaps a few flakes to end the event. A chilly Thurs, then we rebound again. The upcoming weekend is looking good with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

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The above maps clearly show the better timing of the cold front being off to our West and we will get the incoming weakening leftovers. SOP for us... (SOP = Standard Operating Procedure)

47 as of 9am at CVG. Visible satellite shows wall to wall clear skies so 100% sunshine is expected today to go along with a nice Southerly flow pumping in that warmer air. Dews are still low in the 30s, so the air mass is dry and thus, it will heat up quickly and as Trev mentioned the other day, temps will overachieve. This is why we are going with 70+ for CVG today. ILN has us at 70 so they are onboard too. I hope everyone can get outside and enjoy a little spring fever.

Good Morning and my computer went down Friday and finally back on this morning. Hopefully no severe weather but getting into that time of year when timing is so important to get some severe weather. Done with winter but around these parts we know that is not going to happen and really this winter I have seen more sunny days then I can ever remember

64 for here in G'ville and 65 DAY via ILN for today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:29 am Good Morning and my computer went down Friday and finally back on this morning. Hopefully no severe weather but getting into that time of year when timing is so important to get some severe weather. Done with winter but around these parts we know that is not going to happen and really this winter I have seen more sunny days then I can ever remember

One of the drier winters too in recent memory. As I have posted before, I truly hope some good spring rains come or I'm afraid it will be a very hot summer upcoming. I want to be wrong too with this idea but tough not to have this line of thinking since it has been dry for months now (on avg). Plus with a possible La Nina in the works, that is another signal pointing to a hot and dry summer.

EDIT: The Oceanic SST's are extremely warm for the time of year so maybe we will get some help from the tropics this year. Last season we got zero help. The Gulf was dead.

12Z NAM is coming in with around a half inch of rain with our next system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:29 am Good Morning and my computer went down Friday and finally back on this morning. Hopefully no severe weather but getting into that time of year when timing is so important to get some severe weather. Done with winter but around these parts we know that is not going to happen and really this winter I have seen more sunny days then I can ever remember

I saw a Facebook post from Scotty D stating that thru 9am today, February has had 193 hours of clear skies, the most since Feb of 1996 which came in with 203 hours of clear skies. A pretty impressive stat!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 10:05 am 12Z NAM is coming in with around a half inch of rain with our next system.

12Z GFS is in agreement.

About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:29 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:29 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode

That is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I'm pretty much the same this year. I will always accept a fluke snow though with open arms even in April. But anyway... hopefully we will have something to talk about down the road in terms of severe wx. Like winter, severe wx has been lackluster recently too. It seems like heat and drought continue to be our top weather stories, Unfortunately for 2024, heat and drought may make headlines again.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:40 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:29 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode

That is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I'm pretty much the same this year. I will always accept a fluke snow though with open arms even in April. But anyway... hopefully we will have something to talk about down the road in terms of severe wx. Like winter, severe wx has been lackluster recently too. It seems like heat and drought continue to be our top weather stories, Unfortunately for 2024, heat and drought may make headlines again.

That Death Band a few Aprils ago was something! I remember you and I on the phone geeking out!

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:40 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:29 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode

That is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I'm pretty much the same this year. I will always accept a fluke snow though with open arms even in April. But anyway... hopefully we will have something to talk about down the road in terms of severe wx. Like winter, severe wx has been lackluster recently too. It seems like heat and drought continue to be our top weather stories, Unfortunately for 2024, heat and drought may make headlines again.

That Death Band a few Aprils ago was something! I remember you and I on the phone geeking out!

Yes Sir! We will geek out again at some point, whether it be snow or severe wx.

Speaking of which, the SPC did expand the marginal risk area down to the river for early tomorrow morning. This is in regards to a large hail threat due to low freezing levels and a passing warm front.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central
Great Lakes region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest today with
a mostly zonal mid-level pattern across the eastern CONUS. Within
that zonal flow, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late tonight and could result in some
thunderstorms capable of large hail.

A gradual strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated through
the day today from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes as a
mid-level trough advances eastward. This will lead to poleward
moisture transport centered around 850mb. This moist plume combined
with very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates will lead to
increasing elevated instability during the overnight period.

Convective initiation remains the primary question during the
overnight period. A trough is present at both 850mb and 500mb in 12Z
guidance, but they are not quite phased. This leads to
weakening/veering 850mb flow during the period when height falls and
500mb dCVA arrives across the region. This is likely an explanatory
factor for the lack of storm coverage by most CAM guidance.
Nonetheless, global guidance continues to show significant
convective precipitation from southern Michigan to northern
Tennessee.

Given 1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 45-50 knots
(highest across southern Indiana), a conditional threat for elevated
supercells capable of large hail exists tonight. Have expanded the
marginal risk farther south in Indiana to account for this threat.
It is worth mentioning there is at least some threat farther south
into Kentucky where strong instability and shear are present which
would support supercells also. However, have confined the marginal
risk to areas where better mid-level support is expected early
Tuesday morning.

62 at CVG as of 12pm. Wow... Spring Fever is in the air today!

65 now as of 1pm. 70 looks easy. Can we hit 73 for the record??? For tomorrow, the record is 71 set back in 1996. I think clouds / rain may keep us short of that record but it will be close.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 10:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 10:05 am 12Z NAM is coming in with around a half inch of rain with our next system.

12Z GFS is in agreement.

Ditto from the 12Z Euro.

68 now at CVG as of 2pm.