Absolute Vorticity

Nice snow shower right now... starting to stick on the cars and grass!

Well folks... it is looking a bit wet around Christmas time or shortly thereafter. Timing and storm evolution TBD but it looks rainy either way. I still am seeing improvements though the last couple of days or so of 2023 and into 2024. I'm still not talking about arctic air but a better pattern for snow lovers. As always, we only need air cold enough for snow. The position of the Aleutian Low is key as I have said previously but I am seeing better signs of it being more to the West with a +PNA out West and a trough in the East. It will take time for Canada to fill up with arctic air so that is why it won't get brutally cold anytime soon.

MJO as of 12/16 per the Aussies is in Phase 7. Models were wrong about going into the COD. The MJO never did and it is still on the move. Hopefully, we will see Phases 8, 1, and 2 towards the end of the year and into January. If we do, some fun is coming. We shall see! Currently, I do like what I am seeing in the extended range. It is better then what we have been seeing assuming the guidance is correct of course.

The PV is also going to be taking a beating and signs of an SSW event in early January is still showing up. This would bode well for the second half of winter assuming the PV does not stay in Siberia of course. My point is, winter is not dead and I still believe some good periods lie ahead.

SPS issued by the boys for everyone in the last 10 mins:

...Snow Showers Continue Overnight...

Scattered snow showers will continue overnight, with an overall
decrease in coverage and intensity compared to earlier in the day.
However, reduced visibilities in these snow showers, along with
the falling pavement temperatures could lead to some travel
difficulties as slushy roads may develop.

If traveling during this time, slow down and allow extra time to
reach your destination.

Drove from Buffalo to Cincinnati today. Even though it pretty much snowed the whole way, it was a lot of wet stuff up by the lakes. Near Westerville (north Columbus) seemed to be the winner of the snow accumulation. I know Cleveland was expecting 2 to 8 this evening, was still 36 when I drove through.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:55 pm Well folks... it is looking a bit wet around Christmas time or shortly thereafter. Timing and storm evolution TBD but it looks rainy either way. I still am seeing improvements though the last couple of days or so of 2023 and into 2024. I'm still not talking about arctic air but a better pattern for snow lovers. As always, we only need air cold enough for snow. The position of the Aleutian Low is key as I have said previously but I am seeing better signs of it being more to the West with a +PNA out West and a trough in the East. It will take time for Canada to fill up with arctic air so that is why it won't get brutally cold anytime soon.

500mb improving slowly in long range but yea , a ways to go . Just cold enough is going to have to be good enough as we turn into a new year . Wouldn’t surprise me if Canada as a whole finishes December in top ten warmest and especially the southern half breaking monthly record warmth

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 6:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:55 pm Well folks... it is looking a bit wet around Christmas time or shortly thereafter. Timing and storm evolution TBD but it looks rainy either way. I still am seeing improvements though the last couple of days or so of 2023 and into 2024. I'm still not talking about arctic air but a better pattern for snow lovers. As always, we only need air cold enough for snow. The position of the Aleutian Low is key as I have said previously but I am seeing better signs of it being more to the West with a +PNA out West and a trough in the East. It will take time for Canada to fill up with arctic air so that is why it won't get brutally cold anytime soon.

500mb improving slowly in long range but yea , a ways to go . Just cold enough is going to have to be good enough as we turn into a new year . Wouldn’t surprise me if Canada as a whole finishes December in top ten warmest and especially the southern half breaking monthly record warmth

I agree and we are going to need help from eastern Canada at first to get some decent cold. Southern and western Canada very mild December. Hoping for some decent storms next week to build up some snow pack up there. The Stj does look like it may be one that comes into southern California and heads to the coast of the Carolina's. May keep the bigger systems south and east but again still believe for much of the winter we are going to be on the western edge of some really nice systems. As we know with a pattern change we need to see exactly how everything shakes out and though I believe the GOM will be open often this winter we still need other items if we want to get some really nice winter events.

Today was a start and Bgoney you do have bragging rights so don't get a big head lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 7:05 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 6:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:55 pm Well folks... it is looking a bit wet around Christmas time or shortly thereafter. Timing and storm evolution TBD but it looks rainy either way. I still am seeing improvements though the last couple of days or so of 2023 and into 2024. I'm still not talking about arctic air but a better pattern for snow lovers. As always, we only need air cold enough for snow. The position of the Aleutian Low is key as I have said previously but I am seeing better signs of it being more to the West with a +PNA out West and a trough in the East. It will take time for Canada to fill up with arctic air so that is why it won't get brutally cold anytime soon.

500mb improving slowly in long range but yea , a ways to go . Just cold enough is going to have to be good enough as we turn into a new year . Wouldn’t surprise me if Canada as a whole finishes December in top ten warmest and especially the southern half breaking monthly record warmth

I agree and we are going to need help from eastern Canada at first to get some decent cold. Southern and western Canada very mild December. Hoping for some decent storms next week to build up some snow pack up there. The Stj does look like it may be one that comes into southern California and heads to the coast of the Carolina's. May keep the bigger systems south and east but again still believe for much of the winter we are going to be on the western edge of some really nice systems. As we know with a pattern change we need to see exactly how everything shakes out and though I believe the GOM will be open often this winter we still need other items if we want to get some really nice winter events.

Today was a start and Bgoney you do have bragging rights so don't get a big head lol

Agreed guys... Quebec has been cold for sure but that has basically been the only place on our side of the globe. The rest of North America has been mild to very warm as we all know. I also believe that the STJ is finally starting to kick in too with a parade of southern systems / cut off upper lows in our future. It's a great pattern if we had cold air to work with but as of now we do not. We shall see if that changes as we turn the calendar. I believe that it will, but as Bgoney said it will indeed be a slow process.

Not sure if this has any effect, but reading Spaceweather.com, polar stratospheric clouds were seen in Sweden yesterday. They require temperatures below - 85C to form. A very early start.

nice to hear you guys got some severe snow showers today. I might see some flurries/ showers tomorrow morning here. it will be much colder and windy also. just got over 4" of rain Sunday night. my yearly averages are right on par now for the year.

Good morning all! 22 here this morning and at CVG. Upper teens are possible esp if any of you have any snow cover on the ground. Cold today of course with the 30s then we warm up into the 40s Wed and Thurs, 50 Fri and Sat. and in the middle to upper 50s for Christmas Eve and Day. Rain is also looking likely on Friday with a warm front then again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

Then all models agree on a secondary low quickly following the heels of the Christmas Day system. GFS and CMC offer up wintry chances with rain to snow while the Euro has that low much further north so it's all rain for us with the snow part into Lower Michigan. Stay tuned... around the 28th is our next wintry opportunity depending on the track of that secondary low.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am Good morning all! 22 here this morning and at CVG. Upper teens are possible esp if any of you have any snow cover on the ground. Cold today of course with the 30s then we warm up into the 40s Wed and Thurs, 50 Fri and Sat. and in the middle to upper 50s for Christmas Eve and Day. Rain is also looking likely on Friday with a warm front then again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

Then all models agree on a secondary low quickly following the heels of the Christmas Day system. GFS and CMC offer up wintry chances with rain to snow while the Euro has that low much further north so it's all rain for us with the snow part into Lower Michigan. Stay tuned... around the 28th is our next wintry opportunity depending on the track of that secondary low.

A wet Christmas. Yuck!! But what can you do? The weather Gods are in control

We had 3 inches of wet snow in Chardon by 6 pm yesterday. Over night the snow became drier and ended late at night. I would estimate about 10 or so inches total. We are still a good foot below seasonal average for the date.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am Good morning all! 22 here this morning and at CVG. Upper teens are possible esp if any of you have any snow cover on the ground. Cold today of course with the 30s then we warm up into the 40s Wed and Thurs, 50 Fri and Sat. and in the middle to upper 50s for Christmas Eve and Day. Rain is also looking likely on Friday with a warm front then again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

Then all models agree on a secondary low quickly following the heels of the Christmas Day system. GFS and CMC offer up wintry chances with rain to snow while the Euro has that low much further north so it's all rain for us with the snow part into Lower Michigan. Stay tuned... around the 28th is our next wintry opportunity depending on the track of that secondary low.

The MJO is now in phase 8, which you alluded to yesterday, no model really forecasted that to happen. I wonder if the models will begin to show phase 8 type weather for next week. Phase 8 is a pretty wet and cold phase for the eastern half of the US. We will see if it stays in phase 8 for just one day and goes into the circle of death or continues to head through phase 8 into phase.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am Good morning all! 22 here this morning and at CVG. Upper teens are possible esp if any of you have any snow cover on the ground. Cold today of course with the 30s then we warm up into the 40s Wed and Thurs, 50 Fri and Sat. and in the middle to upper 50s for Christmas Eve and Day. Rain is also looking likely on Friday with a warm front then again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

Then all models agree on a secondary low quickly following the heels of the Christmas Day system. GFS and CMC offer up wintry chances with rain to snow while the Euro has that low much further north so it's all rain for us with the snow part into Lower Michigan. Stay tuned... around the 28th is our next wintry opportunity depending on the track of that secondary low.

A wet Christmas. Yuck!! But what can you do? The weather Gods are in control

Nope. We sure can't Pete. Here's to hoping we will have something to track between Christmas and New Year's!

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:52 am We had 3 inches of wet snow in Chardon by 6 pm yesterday. Over night the snow became drier and ended late at night. I would estimate about 10 or so inches total. We are still a good foot below seasonal average for the date.

Love the pics Jeff! Keep 'em coming my friend.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am Good morning all! 22 here this morning and at CVG. Upper teens are possible esp if any of you have any snow cover on the ground. Cold today of course with the 30s then we warm up into the 40s Wed and Thurs, 50 Fri and Sat. and in the middle to upper 50s for Christmas Eve and Day. Rain is also looking likely on Friday with a warm front then again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

Then all models agree on a secondary low quickly following the heels of the Christmas Day system. GFS and CMC offer up wintry chances with rain to snow while the Euro has that low much further north so it's all rain for us with the snow part into Lower Michigan. Stay tuned... around the 28th is our next wintry opportunity depending on the track of that secondary low.

The MJO is now in phase 8, which you alluded to yesterday, no model really forecasted that to happen. I wonder if the models will begin to show phase 8 type weather for next week. Phase 8 is a pretty wet and cold phase for the eastern half of the US. We will see if it stays in phase 8 for just one day and goes into the circle of death or continues to head through phase 8 into phase.

I'm expecting a Phase 8, 1, 2 tour although at a low amplitude. I am hoping we continue to see improvements longer term as a result. However, as discussed yesterday, it will be a slow process. I continue to see slow improvements on the Ensemble guidance.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:12 am

dce wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am Good morning all! 22 here this morning and at CVG. Upper teens are possible esp if any of you have any snow cover on the ground. Cold today of course with the 30s then we warm up into the 40s Wed and Thurs, 50 Fri and Sat. and in the middle to upper 50s for Christmas Eve and Day. Rain is also looking likely on Friday with a warm front then again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

Then all models agree on a secondary low quickly following the heels of the Christmas Day system. GFS and CMC offer up wintry chances with rain to snow while the Euro has that low much further north so it's all rain for us with the snow part into Lower Michigan. Stay tuned... around the 28th is our next wintry opportunity depending on the track of that secondary low.

The MJO is now in phase 8, which you alluded to yesterday, no model really forecasted that to happen. I wonder if the models will begin to show phase 8 type weather for next week. Phase 8 is a pretty wet and cold phase for the eastern half of the US. We will see if it stays in phase 8 for just one day and goes into the circle of death or continues to head through phase 8 into phase.

I'm expecting a Phase 8, 1, 2 tour although at a low amplitude. I am hoping we continue to see improvements longer term as a result. However, as discussed yesterday, it will be a slow process. I continue to see slow improvements on the Ensemble guidance.

I would expect the models to start hooking up with the MJO. Looks likely we have a day or two of warmth around Christmas at this time as the pattern flows along, but I wonder if even that will start to adjust to the MJO being in the cold phases this week. We talk about the lag time for the MJO being a week or so. If that's the case it would make no sense to see warmth the week of Christmas.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:12 am

dce wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am

The MJO is now in phase 8, which you alluded to yesterday, no model really forecasted that to happen. I wonder if the models will begin to show phase 8 type weather for next week. Phase 8 is a pretty wet and cold phase for the eastern half of the US. We will see if it stays in phase 8 for just one day and goes into the circle of death or continues to head through phase 8 into phase.

I'm expecting a Phase 8, 1, 2 tour although at a low amplitude. I am hoping we continue to see improvements longer term as a result. However, as discussed yesterday, it will be a slow process. I continue to see slow improvements on the Ensemble guidance.

Biggest problem with the MJO imo, as alluded to with the low amplitude into 8?, is without it also going through phase 7 at a more robust amplitude it’s effects after getting into the better winter phases have a lesser effect on making the 500mb change significantly and or slows the change significantly . Phase 7 imo has always been a crucial phase in determining how significant phase 8 , 1 effects will be

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:12 am

dce wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 8:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:42 am

The MJO is now in phase 8, which you alluded to yesterday, no model really forecasted that to happen. I wonder if the models will begin to show phase 8 type weather for next week. Phase 8 is a pretty wet and cold phase for the eastern half of the US. We will see if it stays in phase 8 for just one day and goes into the circle of death or continues to head through phase 8 into phase.

I'm expecting a Phase 8, 1, 2 tour although at a low amplitude. I am hoping we continue to see improvements longer term as a result. However, as discussed yesterday, it will be a slow process. I continue to see slow improvements on the Ensemble guidance.

Biggest problem with the MJO imo, as alluded to with the low amplitude into 8?, is without it also going through phase 7 at a more robust amplitude it’s effects after getting into the better winter phases have a lesser effect on making the 500mb change significantly and or slows the change significantly . Phase 7 imo has always been a crucial phase in determining how significant phase 8 , 1 effects will be

I agree with your post Bgoney. I think due to the huge West Pac warm pool and the strong El Nino that is ongoing, the MJO is trying to destructively interfere with it, but it just can't. The Nino is too strong and dominating. Also, with the +IOD weakening as we have also talked about, if you throw that into the mix too, the MJO is going to be at a low amplitude so its impacts on the pattern aren't going to be as great as one would expect. We know this, but just kind of re-hashing it out for folks that may not know. This is why Phase 7 with a strong Nino in December spells a very warm pattern for the CONUS. Once you get into Phase 8, the ridging begins retrograding to the West so by the time you get to Phase 1, you should have a much more workable pattern. Until we see a -EPO though, airmasses will be marginal for snow storms as we've discussed previously. We need a -EPO to get the cold in Siberia to fill Canada up so our storm systems can tap into it. Hopefully, we see that occur for the second half of the winter. I don't see it happening to be honest until then. I'm not saying no snow until mid Jan but I am saying no brutally cold air for us until then.

Great post on the mjo this morning. If you go by the forecast it looks like we may go into the COD and then go into phase 1. This tells me we should be in a milder period late this week into early Christmas week. Then going into phase 1 instead of phase 8 makes a difference imo. Instead of getting the cold from northwest Canada to flow into central USA we get some of that air but also from eastern Canada to flow into the eastern USA and not so much the central USA. This is really what we have seen this fall and would not be surprised to see this pattern repeat. In January phase 8 and 1 tends to work better for us but phase 1 and 2 tends to favor the east coast though we still are on the western edge of some colder air masses. Problem and maybe not depending how things work out but the lack of snow in the plains can help them warm up quickly and pushes that warm air eastward but it also can bring a warmer flow well into the atmosphere and we may be colder near the surface and that can bring the lovely ice storms which are terrible.

CVG reached 40, DAY 41 and CMH 42 yesterday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 10:55 am Great post on the mjo this morning. If you go by the forecast it looks like we may go into the COD and then go into phase 1. This tells me we should be in a milder period late this week into early Christmas week. Then going into phase 1 instead of phase 8 makes a difference imo. Instead of getting the cold from northwest Canada to flow into central USA we get some of that air but also from eastern Canada to flow into the eastern USA and not so much the central USA. This is really what we have seen this fall and would not be surprised to see this pattern repeat. In January phase 8 and 1 tends to work better for us but phase 1 and 2 tends to favor the east coast though we still are on the western edge of some colder air masses. Problem and maybe not depending how things work out but the lack of snow in the plains can help them warm up quickly and pushes that warm air eastward but it also can bring a warmer flow well into the atmosphere and we may be colder near the surface and that can bring the lovely ice storms which are terrible.

I believe that was one of Trev's Bold Predictions or something was for a major ice storm come January. Lovely...

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 1:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 10:55 am Great post on the mjo this morning. If you go by the forecast it looks like we may go into the COD and then go into phase 1. This tells me we should be in a milder period late this week into early Christmas week. Then going into phase 1 instead of phase 8 makes a difference imo. Instead of getting the cold from northwest Canada to flow into central USA we get some of that air but also from eastern Canada to flow into the eastern USA and not so much the central USA. This is really what we have seen this fall and would not be surprised to see this pattern repeat. In January phase 8 and 1 tends to work better for us but phase 1 and 2 tends to favor the east coast though we still are on the western edge of some colder air masses. Problem and maybe not depending how things work out but the lack of snow in the plains can help them warm up quickly and pushes that warm air eastward but it also can bring a warmer flow well into the atmosphere and we may be colder near the surface and that can bring the lovely ice storms which are terrible.

I believe that was one of Trev's Bold Predictions or something was for a major ice storm come January. Lovely...

Last few decades our region has probably seen more ice/sleet events minor /moderate or other than the descent snow events

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 2:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 1:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 10:55 am Great post on the mjo this morning. If you go by the forecast it looks like we may go into the COD and then go into phase 1. This tells me we should be in a milder period late this week into early Christmas week. Then going into phase 1 instead of phase 8 makes a difference imo. Instead of getting the cold from northwest Canada to flow into central USA we get some of that air but also from eastern Canada to flow into the eastern USA and not so much the central USA. This is really what we have seen this fall and would not be surprised to see this pattern repeat. In January phase 8 and 1 tends to work better for us but phase 1 and 2 tends to favor the east coast though we still are on the western edge of some colder air masses. Problem and maybe not depending how things work out but the lack of snow in the plains can help them warm up quickly and pushes that warm air eastward but it also can bring a warmer flow well into the atmosphere and we may be colder near the surface and that can bring the lovely ice storms which are terrible.

I believe that was one of Trev's Bold Predictions or something was for a major ice storm come January. Lovely...

Last few decades our region has probably seen more ice/sleet events minor /moderate or other than the descent snow events

No doubt! It's been a Sleet Fest around here!

Poor Canada