Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 7:28 am

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2023 7:44 pm Meanwhile here locally, I counted about 12 drops of rain with that dying line of showers that just moved thru.

Ha, I got you. I counted 23 drops on my deck.

Dang it! I need to sell my dome to someone in New England.

Yeah I got about 15 drops here lol Low only dropped to 76.

Interestingly enough... ILN has raised POPS now to 70% for this afternoon and evening. Here is their latest thinking:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
Morning cloud cover has been one limiting factor to rapid
heating across the area, but no adjustments were made to high
temperatures with this update. The 12Z sounding observed
saturated low-level flow with moisture convergence supporting
the stratus development. The stratus will transition to strato-
cumulus as surface heating continues.

The boundary that will trigger afternoon convection is
positioned from west to east from Mercer County into northeast
Ohio. Expectations regarding the severe threat and convective
evolution remain the same as previously described in the
discussion below. Primary change with the morning update was to
increase PoPs south of I-70.

SPC has us in a marginal risk also for severe wx. 12Z HRRR has only isolated to scattered convection but the 12Z NAM hammers the Metro / NKY counties so the boys must be going with the NAM at this point. Must have been why they raised POPS. 12Z sounding has a convective temp of 88. DCAPE is 1300 so any storm would have the potential to produce strong straight line winds.

Good Afternoon and temp not rising that quickly but the dew point no doubt is quite high. We will see if the nam is correct but I believe the main item is we are still on the eastern edge of the heat and puts us in at least a chance of showers and thundershowers imo through Friday morning. Even without any rain the clouds should help in keeping temps from getting to high. By Friday I believe we are closer to the ridge and by afternoon we should have a nice cap on the atmosphere so temps can rise faster. Saturday ahead of the cold front is another day that temps can rise faster early on imo to those two days seem more than likely to have the highest temps. Don't get me wrong the higher dews mean it just feels downright nasty.

86 / 77 at 1pm. Heat index must be nearing 100 today.

That humidity is awful! Went outside over my lunch break to pick some tomatoes for dinner and to put some killer ant crystals around the perimeter of the house. Killed several big black ants in the basement this morning so those crystals should resolve that issue shortly. 86 right now but the dew point is ridiculously high at 77! Feels like 97 at this time. YUCK!

12Z GFS solution for this evening is a good blend of the more robust NAM and the more tame HRRR solutions.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 1:03 pm That humidity is awful! Went outside over my lunch break to pick some tomatoes for dinner and to put some killer ant crystals around the perimeter of the house. Killed several big black ants in the basement this morning so those crystals should resolve that issue shortly. 86 right now but the dew point is ridiculously high at 77! Feels like 97 at this time. YUCK!

Les it won't take much to set off a shower of thundershower this afternoon. Models tend to have problems around here with these ridges in the summer especially when we have been wet lately. Temps usually lower than models show but dew points higher. Which devil do you want is the question

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 1:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 1:03 pm That humidity is awful! Went outside over my lunch break to pick some tomatoes for dinner and to put some killer ant crystals around the perimeter of the house. Killed several big black ants in the basement this morning so those crystals should resolve that issue shortly. 86 right now but the dew point is ridiculously high at 77! Feels like 97 at this time. YUCK!

Les it won't take much to set off a shower of thundershower this afternoon. Models tend to have problems around here with these ridges in the summer especially when we have been wet lately. Temps usually lower than models show but dew points higher. Which devil do you want is the question

SB CAPE is at 4000-5000 J/KG over the area so we are extremely unstable at this time already. DCAPE is at 1300-1400 J/KG across the area so definitely is concerning for damaging winds should organized convection be able to get going. Lapse rates aren't great but not horrible either. The limiting factor if you haven't guessed it is no shear. Zippo! If we had some 30 knot shear over the area, we'd have ourselves some really nice potential for big storms. Thus... keeping things in check and only going with scattered development in my forecast.

Dew point up to 78 which is really high. I believe a few times we have seen low 80's but few and far between

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 2:01 pm Dew point up to 78 which is really high. I believe a few times we have seen low 80's but few and far between

We can probably count it on one hand the number of times it's happened. Very rare! 87 as of 2pm so the humidity is doing its handy work to stop us potentially from hitting 90 degrees. Starting to see some showers / t-showers bubbling up along / S of I-70 in Indiana just S of IND. Let's see how that coverage develops in the next few hours.

Looks like this broken line will be moving to the SE towards us which is good, but the amount of coverage is definitely in question right now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 2:45 pm Looks like this broken line will be moving to the SE towards us which is good, but the amount of coverage is definitely in question right now.

Exactly Les. Hit 90 at my house a few minutes ago as more sun came out. So we should be close at CVG and 90-92 seems like a good call. Friday interesting if we get some rain later today or overnight as that could hurt predicted highs and Indy NWS was going with 100 but again today they busted big time and not only because of a thunderstorm at the airport but I thought they were to high to begin with.

88 with a dew of 79 so far at CVG... the humidity continues to rise so 90 may not occur. We'll have to wait and see. Looks like a 50/50 chance to see a storm this afternoon also.

Excessive heat warning on Friday locally between noon and 9pm. We don't this often in this part of the world but with the really high dew points we have one

Looks like CVG got 89'ed at the 3pm reading, 88 now at 4pm. Still unclear if we'll touch 90 or not. Still watching a few storms north and NW of Cincy.

That storm just north of us is teasing us. It is pretty much sitting in one place and building. I wonder how much rain Hamilton has gotten in the past 30 mins... It is *just* missing my house. We could use the rain.

Angelika wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 4:03 pm That storm just north of us is teasing us. It is pretty much sitting in one place and building. I wonder how much rain Hamilton has gotten in the past 30 mins... It is *just* missing my house. We could use the rain.

As of 4pm KHAO has picked up 0.60" of rain.

These are the kind of rains you see in Florida with the high humidity. Blinding rain and 1/2 mile down the road nothing. Will be interesting on Friday to see how high the heat index will top off. Couple of things is a good dose of rain tonight or early Friday could help ease the humidity and dew points may be down a tad but if you are in a place with no rain the dew point can remain very high and the heat index could reach above 105.

90 as of the 5pm climate report so there's #5 on the season. CMH got 89'ed and DAY 87.

Ok. It is monsooning here now.

Looking good for my Brother in Milford too. Meanwhile... down here in NKY, it appears I will be watering this evening.

3.25" in Fairfield and another storm approaching.

Had one cell drop a few hundredths, But I'll still be watering so it'll make it till I come back from Mich over the weekend.

We ended up with 1.08 inches of moderate rain. Picked more eggplant. It is loving the weather

Watching an INCREDIBLE light show off to the west from Anderson Twp. Looks to be hitting the west side and staying there per radar.