March 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Much of the West coast reservoir collection system should be near capacity after the next 10-14 days of drought busting rains. If not shame on them for not designing a better system of collection. Much of the sierra mountains already have 80 -90 inches of QPF tied up in the snow in th upper elevations. Here’s a forecast for the mammoth mountain ski town just for the current and next week events


The NWS Point Forecast for the Town of Mammoth at 8000 feet, forecasts between 2.5 to 4.5 feet by Sunday. Mammoth Mt above 9,000 feet “Point Forecast” is 6.5 to 9.5 feet by the same time. Snow level comes down Friday night into Saturday. 80% chance of up to 10 inches of water over the crest from this storm. There will be some kind of break later Sunday into Monday with another AR possible Monday Night into Tuesday.

[cincy bud]

MJO is in Phase 8 as of 3/7 per the Aussie site. The pattern is changing. We are cooler then where we have been and we will be normal to below for the next week to ten days at least. The forecast models have it in Phase 1 at a pretty high amplitude around mid month. So let's see if the 15th - 20th time period can offer up anything? We do have some light snow and rain coming this weekend but I'm still not impressed with anything sticking unless the OP GFS scores a coup. Even the GFS is marginal temp wise.

I put my snowblower up for the winter. I have cursed us. Blizzard coming lol.

[tron777]

LOL Bud... and good morning all! I wouldn't quite say that but we do have some snow in the forecast. Tonight into Sun morning rain may change to snow then back to rain before ending. I could see a dusting / car topper north of Cincinnati. Doubtful we see much stick south of the river. Sorry folks, that's about the best I can go with for a call on this system. Highs in the 30s on Monday with a few more flurries possible then we slowly warm up back into the 50s mid to late next week.

St. Patrick's Day now looks like a cold front with rain ending as a few flakes. So yeah... it's not looking like a very strong signal to break out the shovels, more like festive flakes.

[Trevor]

I like (well not actually like, but you know what I mean) the prospects for 1-2” of slushy wet snow from river on north late Saturday into Sunday. No road impacts expected but yeah, slushy wet stuff that’ll stick to grass and elevated surfaces.

[cincy bud]

Channel 5 is advertising accumulating snow

[tron777]

I like (well not actually like, but you know what I mean) the prospects for 1-2” of slushy wet snow from river on north late Saturday into Sunday. No road impacts expected but yeah, slushy wet stuff that’ll stick to grass and elevated surfaces.

From my arm chair position, this system looks to be purely WAA driven with 700 MB frontogenic forcing in a band of snow that swings thru the tri-state before the WAA fully takes over. North and NE are favored to stay all snow for a longer period of time due to having more precip and more cold air via NE wind. How big the warm push goes is very key to the whole thing. You have to smell the rain to see the snow. And then get the right point of when the precip shield pivots and you'll get that 1-2" of slush. Dynamic cooling, heavy precip rates also huge element of the forecast.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Morning and just an ugly day imo. We have entered this new pattern and yes much colder but snow chances are still slim over the next few weeks and yes its mid-March but the pattern change is one that works much better for folks on the east coast. Yes we knocked down the southeast ridge which is always good but this season when that happens the south central ridge has replaced the southeast ridge because the pacific is still sending in storms to the west coast. Just a bad winter season besides the blizzard and one other event. We had some of these kind of winters in the early 70's and yes many were La Nina's.

[tron777]

El Nino is already getting the hype lol I do think some sort of a warm ENSO event will develop by late summer or Fall. A cooler summer and less tropical activity as a result? Or do we see a hot summer because of La Nina hangover effect? We shall see!

[tpweather]

El Nino is already getting the hype lol I do think some sort of a warm ENSO event will develop by late summer or Fall. A cooler summer and less tropical activity as a result? Or do we see a hot summer because of La Nina hangover effect? We shall see!

Les I believe we have a early start to summer and then cooler towards the end. I do believe the tropical activity will be less if the El Nina develops which usually means less systems coming off the African coast.

[tron777]

El Nino is already getting the hype lol I do think some sort of a warm ENSO event will develop by late summer or Fall. A cooler summer and less tropical activity as a result? Or do we see a hot summer because of La Nina hangover effect? We shall see!

Les I believe we have a early start to summer and then cooler towards the end. I do believe the tropical activity will be less if the El Nina develops which usually means less systems coming off the African coast.

Winters coming off of a bunch of Nina's tend to be pretty good especially if the Nino is weak to moderate. Strong is never any good.

[airwolf76]

El Nino is already getting the hype lol I do think some sort of a warm ENSO event will develop by late summer or Fall. A cooler summer and less tropical activity as a result? Or do we see a hot summer because of La Nina hangover effect? We shall see!

Thats because its been a while since we've had one. I am not sure how the summer overall will be but I would expect to see cooler conditions this Spring into June anyways. I am thinking a cooler and drier Spring into early summer this year

[tron777]

El Nino is already getting the hype lol I do think some sort of a warm ENSO event will develop by late summer or Fall. A cooler summer and less tropical activity as a result? Or do we see a hot summer because of La Nina hangover effect? We shall see!

Thats because its been a while since we've had one. I am not sure how the summer overall will be but I would expect to see cooler conditions this Spring into June anyways. I am thinking a cooler and drier Spring into early summer this year

Winter of 2018-2019 was the last one lol

[Snowbrain2]

Snow of varying intensity up here in Chardon. Bit over 2 inches so far. Mix may occur this afternoon. Lake enhanced snow into tonight.

[tron777]

That looks awesome Jeff! My cousin in S Mich has snow cover in the 4-6" range on the ground maybe more in some places. Nice to see northern areas doing what is normal for a change. It is cooling off down here, 38 degrees with drizzle.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a low cutting to Chicago on St Patty's Day for some late day / evening T-storm action.

EDIT: Secondary low on the 18th comes at us too. Sheesh, a wild solution there for sure. Looks windy too with a strengthening low passing thru. Snow to the west in IND country. So we've got that solution vs the more progressive GFS and CMC solutions.

[Trevor]

ILN seems to be on board with my thinking re: accumulating snow potential late Sat night into Sunday. From a modeling standpoint, I am favoring the colder solutions or this event.

As stated this morning, road impacts should be limited and confined to the early morning hours of Sunday. Will continue to monitor for any changes re: this system and the forecast, but my thoughts from this morning remain unchanged.

[MVWxObserver]

Much of the West coast reservoir collection system should be near capacity after the next 10-14 days of drought busting rains. If not shame on them for not designing a better system of collection. Much of the sierra mountains already have 80 -90 inches of QPF tied up in the snow in th upper elevations. Here’s a forecast for the mammoth mountain ski town just for the current and next week events


The NWS Point Forecast for the Town of Mammoth at 8000 feet, forecasts between 2.5 to 4.5 feet by Sunday. Mammoth Mt above 9,000 feet “Point Forecast” is 6.5 to 9.5 feet by the same time. Snow level comes down Friday night into Saturday. 80% chance of up to 10 inches of water over the crest from this storm. There will be some kind of break later Sunday into Monday with another AR possible Monday Night into Tuesday.

My folks and I have friends who reside near LA and I've been thinking about them a lot lately. Prayerfully they're doing okay re flooding in CA.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged for around 26 Sat morning.

[tron777]

The boys seems interested:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected for the day on Saturday and into
Saturday evening. A low pressure system will then move south of
the region Saturday night into Sunday. While thermal profiles
are marginal and temperatures will be near freezing, there is a
pretty good signal that there will be at least a few hour period
Sunday morning where accumulating snow will be possible. Wet
bulb temperatures are in the low 30s north of the river during
this time. Models continue to come in cooler and indicate that
north of the river temperatures will struggle to rise on Sunday.
Have temperatures staying in the 30s on Sunday except for near
and south of the Ohio River. Cannot rule out some freezing rain
and sleet with this system, however expect primarily snow and
rain. Have an area of 1 to 2 inches with locally slightly higher
amounts. Indicated this area in the HWO. While higher amounts
certainly will be possible, did not go higher at this time due
to uncertainties with this event. As the day progresses there
will also be the potential for the loss of ice in the clouds and
a transition back to more liquid precipitation. Will keep an
eye on this system over the next day to fine tune the details.

[tron777]

I'm intrigued about a front coming thru on St Patrick's Day then by next weekend, does a second wave spin up too soon, too late, or nothing at all? That set up comes and goes on modeling but it has my usual one eye open look on it. 24 hours ago it was a snow storm on the OP GFS then it went poof. Might be slowly coming back? Euro has a strong low solution too..

[tron777]

Per the Aussies, off the chart Phase 8 as of 3/9!

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

Modeling still calling for Phase 1 after the 14th. So could the 18th have a shot at spinning up something? Is the blocking going to be enough to slow down the progressive flow?


Phase 1 is cold for us with slightly above normal over the Northeast. Phases 2 and 3 are very cold for all areas Eastern US in March. I don't know about Phases 2 or 3 but Phase 1 us definitely coming.

[tron777]

Latest tellies forecast calls for the PNA to spike around that time then drop negative again. AO dropping negative after coming up to neutral and NAO neutral to weakly negative.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yesterday felt so cold with the wind. So how much snow can we expect overnight into early Sunday. Some folks especially south of the river may end up with just a nice cold rain. North of the river I expect a dusting to perhaps a grassy inch in some areas. More snow may fall than an inch but with the ground very warm for this time of year much will melt on contact. No problems with the roads. Next week we start out cold but get milder ahead on another system late in the week. Friday could be somewhat wet and can we get a second system over the weekend to produce snow. To early for that forecast but it will turn colder once again next weekend.

Spring fever and I am ready to be outside but this past week had to nice fires in the fire pit and was to burn all the trees and bushes I had pruned so at least a good head start for the spring.

[tron777]

Good morning! I still need to burn my brush thanks to the wind storms over the winter. Speaking of winter, rain and snow is on the way for tonight. 1-2" on grassy areas looks good. For Cincy on south up to 1" on grassy areas can be expected. Going with some of the colder solutions like Trev for this event. Snow ends sometime on Sunday morning and may even end as some light rain / drizzle. Whatever snow does fall will melt once it stops with temps in the mid to upper 30s, Same thing on Monday temp wise with a snow shower possible. Should crack 40 on Tues. 60 by Thurs with rain developing with a cold front for St. Patrick's Day. Then by next weekend, do we get a secondary low with some snow or just cold and dry? We shall see!