Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:28 am That's a great post by that Toledo Met. Thanks JP for sharing that! I posted several pages back CVG's stats in Feb the last few winters and Feb of '21 was the 2nd snowiest Feb on record. The last 2 Feb's have produced those massive sleet storms too. Feb has had the biggest storms of the winter season for us the last 2 years. We shall see what this Feb holds when we get closer.

You are welcome. Until something happens I'm just enjoying the cloudy ugly days.

But I did look out the window few minutes ago and saw we had a snow shower move through. Roof tops and care has snow on them. Road is wet. At least it looks like it.

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:28 am That's a great post by that Toledo Met. Thanks JP for sharing that! I posted several pages back CVG's stats in Feb the last few winters and Feb of '21 was the 2nd snowiest Feb on record. The last 2 Feb's have produced those massive sleet storms too. Feb has had the biggest storms of the winter season for us the last 2 years. We shall see what this Feb holds when we get closer.

You are welcome. Until something happens I'm just enjoying the cloudy ugly days.

But I did look out the window few minutes ago and saw we had a snow shower move through. Roof tops and care has snow on them. Road is wet. At least it looks like it.

Good deal! Just a few flakes here thus far. Watching a band to my NW over SE Indiana to see if it moves down this way for a little more action later this morning.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:30 am Screenshot_20230107-172620_Chrome.jpg

Yep! The week of MLK has always been our peak cold climo. CVG climate normals are 39 / 22 for the coldest time of the year.

Getting a light rain / snow mix here. 35 degrees.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:40 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:30 am Screenshot_20230107-172620_Chrome.jpg

Yep! The week of MLK has always been our peak cold climo. CVG climate normals are 39 / 22 for the coldest time of the year.

Since 2000s here how that week (15-21) has played out. Normal mean is 31. How far up the ladder will this year be???

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:30 am Screenshot_20230107-172620_Chrome.jpg

Great Map and I have mentioned this several times. That is why you see some snows in New England in May and even early June. The Atlantic takes much longer to cool in the winter and by February it tends to be the coldest so that area will see the coldest part of winter in the second half.

The models are starting to see the cold getting here a little sooner with each run and I thought this would be the case. So early week system then Wednesday/Thursday system which will be further south and then next weekend most likely another system in the works. I must laugh and I do this every year but who keeps saying winter is over in January. Sure once in awhile that is true but very seldom in this neck of the woods. We live in an area where we need milder spells and this builds up the cold in the arctic regions.

I know I'm dating myself with this comment, but we've had snow grains falling most of the morning.

Yeah im not ready to punt winter yet. will give it another week or two

Makes me laugh about winter being over. By the second week of July and no temperature has been above 85 then I will call summer over. The remarks are nonsense for this part of the world. Many times I am ready for spring in mid-April and winter is still hanging around.

GEFs mean low track for the cutter late next week is similar to the one we just had

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:40 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:30 am Screenshot_20230107-172620_Chrome.jpg

Yep! The week of MLK has always been our peak cold climo. CVG climate normals are 39 / 22 for the coldest time of the year.

Since 2000s here how that week (15-21) has played out. Normal mean is 31. How far up the ladder will this year be???



Screenshot_20230113-105134_Chrome.jpg

A Top 5 wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Good afternoon all... great posts as always from everyone on this forum! So for next week... a rain maker comes in on MLK in the afternoon and ends Tues morning. The break is short lived as we watch a more potent system for Thursday. The OP GFS is much further SE on this run showing rain and snow possible. The GEFS isn't buying it and right now, neither am I. CMC matches the GEFS tracking the low over us. Euro is running now and it's out to Hour 132 as of this post and you can already tell it's going to be similar to its 0Z run. So, my current thoughts are a carbon copy of what we just had with a strong t-storm threat being possible with that system. After that... then I think we'll have a better shot at fun and games since we'll be getting towards the last week of January by that time. I feel much, much better about that period into early Feb.

As Les just mentioned, EU with the late next week low coming up river to southern Illinois to lake Michigan. GFS op this winter, has had a tendency in this range( 5-7 days ) to have the surface lows to far south or east and correct back north and west. Time will tell

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:55 pm As Les just mentioned, EU with the late next week low coming up river to southern Illinois to lake Michigan. GFS op this winter, has had a tendency in this range( 5-7 days ) to have the surface lows to far south or east and correct back north and west. Time will tell

Sometimes the Euro can be too far NW as well so a track between the two would put the low close to us. I like that solution for now anyway. UKMET is going the GFS route having the low Thurs morning in TN. GFS had it in WV. CMC and GEFS is on top of us. Euro is well NW of us. Place your bets! EPS is in and it has the low tracking from Paducah > Indy > Toledo.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:21 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:55 pm As Les just mentioned, EU with the late next week low coming up river to southern Illinois to lake Michigan. GFS op this winter, has had a tendency in this range( 5-7 days ) to have the surface lows to far south or east and correct back north and west. Time will tell

Sometimes the Euro can be too far NW as well so a track between the two would put the low close to us. I like that solution for now anyway. UKMET is going the GFS route having the low Thurs morning in TN. GFS had it in WV. CMC and GEFS is on top of us. Euro is well NW of us. Place your bets! EPS is in and it has the low tracking from Paducah > Indy > Toledo.

Agree, if the EU is to strong with the low it will be more east. Mods will bounce it around in that cincy to Chicago corridor for a few more days. If it's EU strong chance for rough weather to reach further north. I don't see any track that changes our chances for wintry weather with the warm air ahead ,other than what we just had and a chance of backside snow showers

Good Afternoon and some great posts this afternoon. I need to make it more clear on my posts earlier about the more southerly outcome. What I should of said is each system imo that comes our way is pushing the cold further and further south and I believe more so than the models show. No doubt the early week system is mild with rain and the Wed/Thurs system is a more rain to snow/snow showers on the back end. Next weekend though I believe the cold will have settle in and any system we get to move in will more and likely be on the snow side. Then the last week of January we will just need to see how the pattern shapes up for systems as I believe there should be plenty of cold air around

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 3:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:21 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:55 pm As Les just mentioned, EU with the late next week low coming up river to southern Illinois to lake Michigan. GFS op this winter, has had a tendency in this range( 5-7 days ) to have the surface lows to far south or east and correct back north and west. Time will tell

Sometimes the Euro can be too far NW as well so a track between the two would put the low close to us. I like that solution for now anyway. UKMET is going the GFS route having the low Thurs morning in TN. GFS had it in WV. CMC and GEFS is on top of us. Euro is well NW of us. Place your bets! EPS is in and it has the low tracking from Paducah > Indy > Toledo.

Agree, if the EU is to strong with the low it will be more east. Mods will bounce it around in that cincy to Chicago corridor for a few more days. If it's EU strong chance for rough weather to reach further north. I don't see any track that changes our chances for wintry weather with the warm air ahead ,other than what we just had and a chance of backside snow showers

Totally agree! We are on the same page for sure with this system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 3:32 pm Good Afternoon and some great posts this afternoon. I need to make it more clear on my posts earlier about the more southerly outcome. What I should of said is each system imo that comes our way is pushing the cold further and further south and I believe more so than the models show. No doubt the early week system is mild with rain and the Wed/Thurs system is a more rain to snow/snow showers on the back end. Next weekend though I believe the cold will have settle in and any system we get to move in will more and likely be on the snow side. Then the last week of January we will just need to see how the pattern shapes up for systems as I believe there should be plenty of cold air around

Hey Tim! I get what you're saying. We could easily run into a situation where we get rain and / or t-storms then snow showers on the backside like what we just had happen. That would not shock me in the least. Then... to your point about what happens after that, I have my usual "one eye open" for Sunday Jan 22nd or so... that is the next system that comes in and that one has a chance to be more frozen versus wet. We are certainly on the same page there.

I'm down to the freezing mark now. A touch of frz rain / snow grains are frozen on my car. Nothing on pavement or grass. So I guess this is a generic "car topper" event? A few streaks of snow remain on radar this evening, isolated but they are there. Best coverage as we had expected are over the Mountains of Eastern KY / TN and WVA where 2-4" may fall.

I looked at the 18Z GFS and it's fine for the next system MLK to Tues morning with our next shot of rain. But after that, it is completely different from the rest of the guidance. For Thurs of next week, it does track the low over us but it really is a weak looking system to be honest. So the GFS just really can't be trusted right now from about Day 5 on, IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 5:41 pm I'm down to the freezing mark now. A touch of frz rain / snow grains are frozen on my car. Nothing on pavement or grass. So I guess this is a generic "car topper" event? A few streaks of snow remain on radar this evening, isolated but they are there. Best coverage as we had expected are over the Mountains of Eastern KY / TN and WVA where 2-4" may fall.

Les I missed the severe part of this system as it really surprised me but the snow in the mountains I got correct. Tons going on next week and we are going to see models changing quite often which is not unusual with a pattern change. They will have a hard time figuring out when the cold will arrive and far south does it go after each system. Get ready and I know the last 10 days of the month should be fun and lets hope it continues at least for until mid-Feb.

Storm total of 5 inches from the past day or so of snowfall. For the season now up to 28 inches, but still about two feet under average for the date.

Love the pics of snow. Will we see this locally in the next 2 weeks and my guess is yes. Waiting for the afternoon runs and hopefully they will end up like I see the pattern playing out. Sometimes hard to describe a pattern you see when the models are not on the same page. Either I will be wrong or they will start to head in my direction. Next week looks rather easy though as we see more systems come across the country but they will drop down some snow with the first system in the northern plains,second system in the central plans and upper mid-west and the third will that be the Ohio Valley. I believe so but not sure models are going to show that this early. The operational models tend to catch on the latest to a pattern change which makes sense but hopefully since we are really at the start of this change I would love to see some signs from the models. This kind of pattern reminds me of a late November/ early December pattern or least how that period was many years ago and in the past decade not as much. This pattern change once its complete should have a colder eastern half of the country while the west and yes Alaska will turn milder. Speaking of Alaska and very few true cold snaps for them this season though some places have had some nice snowfall.