Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:10 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:56 pm 18z HRRR still coming in with .20-30" qpf of snow in about a 4 hour period, so factor in all the variables we have going on at that time and what do yyou come up with?

Bgoney and we talked about that earlier and what are the snow ratios going to be at any given time and how do you really come up with a correct ratio. Many times with systems cold air comes in slowly and you start at 30 degrees and maybe 8 hours later you are at 22 so the ratio went form 8-1 to maybe 12-1 over that period. This is shorter duration and we may go from 45 to 15 in two hours time. So do you go 8-1 for 30 minutes and then 12-1 for next 30 minutes and continue to go higher over the next 3 hours. I love numbers but this one is a moving target.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:53 pm I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:10 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:56 pm 18z HRRR still coming in with .20-30" qpf of snow in about a 4 hour period, so factor in all the variables we have going on at that time and what do yyou come up with?

Bgoney and we talked about that earlier and what are the snow ratios going to be at any given time and how do you really come up with a correct ratio. Many times with systems cold air comes in slowly and you start at 30 degrees and maybe 8 hours later you are at 22 so the ratio went form 8-1 to maybe 12-1 over that period. This is shorter duration and we may go from 45 to 15 in two hours time. So do you go 8-1 for 30 minutes and then 12-1 for next 30 minutes and continue to go higher over the next 3 hours. I love numbers but this one is a moving target.

Yea , I know , that might be imp0ssible to calculate , having said that , i just dont see accumulations going over 3 or 4 in the AV triangle. Unless theres even a more SE shift in the low. I doubt if those higher numbers Kuchera is spitting out calculates the 35-50 mph winds into it .

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:00 pm I have to be honest - I am really concerned about Global Warming

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:52 pm Per the NWS Cheyenne, WY Twitter page... they dropped 40 degrees in 30 mins! Holy Cow!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:56 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:53 pm I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

Good idea Tim and I could not agree more with you. This is going to be so exciting to track no matter what happens.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:56 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:53 pm I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

Good idea Tim and I could not agree more with you. This is going to be so exciting to track no matter what happens.

After seeing the day models and reading some of the post here I've come to the conclusion that from Indy and to the NW may not see as much as a few days ago and further east may see more, so that may be the bust that may happen. One bust I would not mind seeing is having less winds for our area, I'm kind of freaked out a little on losing power.