Absolute Vorticity

Pic from earlier north of Buffalo looking south

66" now in Orchard Park!

The all time 24 hour snowfall record for New York, is 49 inches, which fell in Watertown on November 14–15, 1900. We now have Orchard Park as of 7pm with 66" in the last 24 hours. If certified by the "powers that be" we may have witnessed a new 24 hour snowfall record for the state of New York. Incredible!

Love that pic. Another day another pull your hair out forecast lol. All 3 major models and 3 different outcome later this week but they are getting together on how the northern jet is taking control.

The CMC is just moving the late week front through without much fanfare. The Gfs is rain getting in here late Thanksgiving but then the front continues on and we get a few flurries next weekend. The Euro digs the system much further west and this would be a rain to snow threat. Which one is correct and throwing the CMC out for sure but then must decide which model looks more likely between the Euro and Gfs. I still believe the NAO will have a huge say on the forecast. How negative does it go late next week and give Les all the credit has he has been pointing this out since early in the week. A slightly negative NAO helps us out by digging the storm further west and a more negative NAO would have the digging of the storm to our east.

So this morning I still believe a decent storm will happen starting Thanksgiving through the holiday weekend. I believe the models may be underestimating the amount of moisture from the GOM. Yes earlier in the week a southern system uses some of the gulf moisture which a system that heads well south of us. I contend there is so much moisture available in the western GOM that all we need is that highway to bring it north and that is with a digging trough.

Okay here is my forecast and no I changed my mind lol. Still to many questions need to be answered with imo the NAO playing out is key. After next weekend you have about a 50/50 split on whether the AO goes positive or negative. I am sticking to my positive AO which should bring milder air into the USA.

Btw once again I looked at some forecasts for Siberia and this has been back and forth every day this week. Today's lovely forecast has 4 really cold days with a temperature of -90 forecast. Yes that is cold for them and do I believe the milder weather of -40 or the really cold -90. Probably somewhere in between but they have had some decent snowfall for mid-November and getting a deeper snow cover in that part of the world this time of year would lean towards the colder pattern so -70 seems possible late next week.

Beautiful Radar since late morning yesterday

Sure I will be adding to the posts today trying to figure out the forecast late next week. Do I favor the gfs or euro and neither at the moment and probably more of a combo between the two. Talked about the NAO but the one item I have sort of left alone is the STJ. This piece of the puzzle is important as well. When does the STJ get involved with the system if at all will also be part of this somewhat confusing forecast. The earlier it gets involved the more likely a bigger storm. Both the gfs and euro have it entering and being part of the system next week and the CMC imo is not very deep with the trough or have much influence with the STJ.

Low of 17 here

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 8:45 amLow of 17 here

18 here and the winds stayed up just enough to keep temps from falling into the mid-teens. Winds will pick up once again later today but try and die down before sunrise on Sunday. How quickly they die down will determine low temps. Will go with mid-teens but again if the winds die down quick enough you could see 12,13 degree temp but if they stay up more toward the 20 degree mark. Sunday night into Monday morning you may get that quick drop in the evening where temps drop below 20 quickly but may rise just ahead of sunset as we start the warming trend.

Good morning all! A low of 17 here this morning, 18 at CVG. 77" that is 6 and 1/2 feet of snow at Orchard Park, NY the last report I saw. Amazing! More to come for those folks today into early tomorrow. For us... a cold weekend which warms up next week perhaps even to normal which right now is 53 for CVG. We continue to watch and analyze the pattern to try and get the Thanksgiving time period correct or as best as we can anyway since it's a big Holiday! I think no travel issues early next week as well as Wed. Even Thanksgiving during the first half to maybe even 3/4s of the day itself, should be dry. After that, that is when huge questions arise as to how the pattern is, and how does this next system take shape? I've beat the -NAO drum into the ground, which I do think is weak by the way because it will rise again going into Dec as does the AO, but we've got both weakly negative for this event I have no doubt. So, the GFS and CMC are too progressive and there respective solutions do not fit the Teleconnection pattern we have been discussing. The Euro's solution does match the pattern with a slower moving trough that goes negative tilt and you have a slow moving closed 500 MB or upper low bringing in rain then changing to snow or a mix or rain / snow, sleet, whatever. That mess lingers into Sat on the backside of the system while an energy transfer takes place to an EC Low. I've been mentioning this solution several times as various models have shown it. I like it personally. It matches the Thanksgiving rain developing idea changing to snow sometime on Black Friday and lingering into Sat on the back side. I see no reason to change the call. We can iron out the fine details later, such as timing, changeover times, p-type, and amounts. We'll hash that out next week. For now, we need to continue to see if this idea gains additional model support esp early next week.

I’ve got tickets to the OSU/team to the north game. Can’t wait to see if I’ll be cheering with rain or snow!

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:28 am I’ve got tickets to the OSU/team to the north game. Can’t wait to see if I’ll be cheering with rain or snow!

I'd say back side snow showers should the forecast pan out. We'll see, got plenty of time to track it. #GoBlue

Latest gfs already different so lets see where this takes us

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:06 am Latest gfs already different so lets see where this takes us

An easy toss worthy solution. Man.. this model's physics are terrible right now with this pattern.

12Z CMC has a more reasonable solution with the upper low transferring its energy to the EC Low and we get wrap around snow showers on the back side.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:47 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:06 am Latest gfs already different so lets see where this takes us

An easy toss worthy solution. Man.. this model's physics are terrible right now with this pattern.

Not sure exactly was the imput to have such a change. The cmc went back towards what it showed yesterday and closer to the Euro. Will be fun to see what the Euro shows and if its anything like the gfs then I am really confused on the pattern

12Z GEFS has the trough going negative tilt as it is passing right thru the Ohio Valley so def rain to back side snows if this solution is correct.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:16 pm 12Z GEFS has the trough going negative tilt as it is passing right thru the Ohio Valley so def rain to back side snows if this solution is correct.

Les also watching the riding along the west coast. as well. That is just another piece of the puzzle to when the trough goes negative which I believe will happen but exactly where is the million dollar question

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:19 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:16 pm 12Z GEFS has the trough going negative tilt as it is passing right thru the Ohio Valley so def rain to back side snows if this solution is correct.

Les also watching the riding along the west coast. as well. That is just another piece of the puzzle to when the trough goes negative which I believe will happen but exactly where is the million dollar question

That's the biggest difference atm between GFS/EU . GFS with a flatter rollover ridge and the EU a ridge that connects to the NAO region. Haven't put any weight into any solution yet.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:19 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:16 pm 12Z GEFS has the trough going negative tilt as it is passing right thru the Ohio Valley so def rain to back side snows if this solution is correct.

Les also watching the riding along the west coast. as well. That is just another piece of the puzzle to when the trough goes negative which I believe will happen but exactly where is the million dollar question

That's the biggest difference atm between GFS/EU . GFS with a flatter rollover ridge and the EU a ridge that connects to the NAO region. Haven't put any weight into any solution yet.

Another item is the ridging in the west. The cmc in the latest run as the ridge going well into western Canada as the gfs barely gets into Canada and has a system coming into the pacific northwest. Will check in on the Euro in an hour or so

12Z Euro continuing to show rain late afternoon on Thanksgiving changing to snow on Black Friday with more back side snow showers on Sat. The low digs in across the Great Lakes / OV then transfers its energy to an EC low. This type of solution is starting to show up more IMO so this might be the correct solution. Let's see what happens over the next couple of days.

35 here today, CVG topped out at 35 also. Look for low temps to be similar to this morning. Highs tomorrow a couple of degrees cooler then today but less windy thankfully.

Looks like the artic front is about to blow in. Some good looking returns on radar.

Good Morning and maybe a better handling of the late week forecast. As we know back and forth on this for several days. Yesterday the gfs decided that the front would make through here quickly but we know the gfs has a bias. This morning all three have the front moving through rather quickly with a phase of the jet streams to the east. Are the models not quick enough with the phase and how much moisture is available. The forecast Les and I have throwing out there even though models are back and forth is rain arriving sometime on Thanksgiving and then switching to snow or snow showers on Friday. Still believe this is a good forecast.

I still believe the storm itself is going to be strong no matter where it phases. So next weekend looks cold imo plus some flurries or snow showers possible Saturday.

I still believe there is going to be more moisture available than the models show and this would increase rain Thanksgiving.

Just for fun I looked at the forecasts for Siberia and yesterday I saw a -90 and today the same place -35. I have used the forecasts in that area for many years and sort of gave me a clue where the coldest air is in the Northern Hemisphere. Well its getting even colder in Northern Canada where is has been most of this season. So really this part of the forecasting is giving me no clues on what may happen down the road.

I have been talking about a positive AO that I believe will occur the week after Thanksgiving and continue for a couple of weeks. Though the gfs hints at this the Euro is not heading in that direction. To early for any changes to the forecast but maybe the A0 does go positive but for a shorter term and another piece of the puzzle could be what is happening over in eastern China and Japan as a big trough is expected to form there later this week and ridging should form over the pacific and where that ridge decides to form is important. Some signs of that ridge developing over Alaska and if that happens a trough would be over the central and eastern USA.

So heading into winter I still believe December is going to be cold and snowy and that has not changed but just need to get the timing correct. Does the coldest air remain on this side of the earth and I believe that is still the case.

Enough for this morning but my main point is a big storm should form over the eastern 1/3 of the country late this week but exactly where the two jets merge is still a work in progress.

Moderate snow at 9 am in Chardon. Had 5 inches at 6;30 am, May accumulate another 3-6++ by the time it's done late today.