Absolute Vorticity

Has reached 91 at CVG.

Hey Eric, 91 and dew at 76 with heat index at 103

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 3:09 pm Hey Eric, 91 and dew at 76 with heat index at 103

Hi Tim, yep juiced up and ready to fire 'em off.

91 at CVG... thanks all, will update our thread. 89 here so far for my high.

T-storm watch to our West / SW. Check out Indy radar.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0499.html

Not to concerned with severe in cvgland, especially with those lighter showers out ahead of the heavy stuff, kind of destabilizing things to a lesser degree

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 7:16 pm Not to concerned with severe in cvgland, especially with those lighter showers out ahead of the heavy stuff, kind of destabilizing things to a lesser degree

I'd be happy to just get some rain and call it an evening.

Not much overnight, very little in fact. It doesn't appear we'll see much today either but that should change Tues - Friday this week with high rain chances expected on and off thru the period.

Hopefully this weeks expectations for widespread rains materialize. Not much has changed with forecast for days. 20-30% chance of isolated showers in areas farthest from frontal boundary (today) and 60-70% when boundary flexes nearby (tomorrow)

Ended up with 0.04" here with the showers yesterday.

Wonderful week for the end of July especially since we need the rain but not good for folks with outdoor plans. Still going 1-3 inches for the week for most folks but already there as been some amounts over southern Indiana approaching 5 inches. This tells me that if you get caught in a training event totals can be much higher but where that happens is almost impossible to forecast. Hopefully the front is out of the area by Friday and we can enjoy a wonderful 3 days of no rain,lower humidity.

We'll have to see about the timing of when the front finally exits the area. It may occur Fri morning and if it does, as Tim mentioned, this upcoming weekend, could be a beauty! Hopefully most folks can get an inch or two plus of rain thru Friday. That would be perfect on getting things caught up in the water dept.

Just wanted to add something involving the forecast today. Though most of the day is dry the amount of moisture in the air is very high so an isolated shower or some mist is possible. The chances for rain increase by Tuesday morning and it looks to be a rather wet day for most folks.

Clouds will keep temps in check today L80s at best, then the rain tomorrow may cause some folks to stay in the 70s for highs. That will be a humid 70s, but still a nice treat for late July.

With 12z mods coming in for tomorrow , I'd say each scenario the GFS and NAM have, has a 50/50 shot. Most of CVGland could get missed with beneficial rains , there's just no way of knowing for sure where the front is when the shortwave energy enhances the showers and storms. Will it be , Dayton, Louisville or Cincinnati?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:00 pm With 12z mods coming in for tomorrow , I'd say each scenario the GFS and NAM have, has a 50/50 shot. Most of CVGland could get missed with beneficial rains , there's just no way of knowing for sure where the front is when the shortwave energy enhances the showers and storms. Will it be , Dayton, Louisville or Cincinnati?

Great post. Timing as always is key with forecasting. The one good things about the next several days is the low pressures that move across will be closer to us and not in the Great Lakes area. This should increase the chances for rain and like you mentioned earlier 60/70 p/c chance on days where we have some decent action and that looks to be Tuesday and Thursday and then a much smaller chance Monday,Wednesday and Friday.

The trends I am seeing is south of the river tomorrow, CVG gets clipped. Better chances as the boundary lifts north as a warm front again Wed and Thurs.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:44 pm The trends I am seeing is south of the river tomorrow, CVG gets clipped. Better chances as the boundary lifts north as a warm front again Wed and Thurs.

Funny Les as the trends last night were further north only to switch back to the south. Again models this summer have been horrible with placements so not to worried plus we are much closer to the energy this week so I expect everyone to get in on the action. A few isolated showers popped up this afternoon as expected but the main action should hold off until Tuesday Morning.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:44 pm The trends I am seeing is south of the river tomorrow, CVG gets clipped. Better chances as the boundary lifts north as a warm front again Wed and Thurs.

Funny Les as the trends last night were further north only to switch back to the south. Again models this summer have been horrible with placements so not to worried plus we are much closer to the energy this week so I expect everyone to get in on the action. A few isolated showers popped up this afternoon as expected but the main action should hold off until Tuesday Morning.

Yeah, we'll see what kind of leftovers we can scrape together Tues morning. That looks to be the highest chance attm for tomorrow. Would love to see that change. Models have been bad as you said. QPF amounts are always like throwing darts at a dart board.

New 12Z Euro gives CVG 2"+ between now and Wed late afternoon. That would be nice if it occurred in reality.

Latest model runs still keeping the theme from earlier today but maybe a hair north. Looking at the radar I believe the earlier models that was further north. CVG might be smack down in the middle of the first round on Tuesday. Still going 1-3 for most folks with some higher amounts likely but pinpointing those will be tough.

Pretty good contrast in moisture across the region. PWATS range from 2.2" over Western KY, TN to 0.7" over S. Michigan! Radar has a few sprinkles out there over S IN but not much to write home about. The expectation is that an MCS develops over MO and ILL tonight after midnight and spreads into S IN thereafter. Do we get the brunt of it? OR does Louisville and we only get light rain on the N edge? I-70 Crew would see nothing if that solution were to play out for tomorrow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:42 pm Pretty good contrast in moisture across the region. PWATS range from 2.2" over Western KY, TN to 0.7" over S. Michigan! Radar has a few sprinkles out there over S IN but not much to write home about. The expectation is that an MCS develops over MO and ILL tonight after midnight and spreads into S IN thereafter. Do we get the brunt of it? OR does Louisville and we only get light rain on the N edge? I-70 Crew would see nothing if that solution were to play out for tomorrow.

Les I always look at climo as well in these situations and since we are in mid-summer models tend to be to far south with this kind of set up. I believe we are in a perfect spot and with this warm front meaning business I believe Dayton has a better shot of heavier rain than Louisville on Tuesday. Later in the week I believe that will be just the opposite.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:42 pm Pretty good contrast in moisture across the region. PWATS range from 2.2" over Western KY, TN to 0.7" over S. Michigan! Radar has a few sprinkles out there over S IN but not much to write home about. The expectation is that an MCS develops over MO and ILL tonight after midnight and spreads into S IN thereafter. Do we get the brunt of it? OR does Louisville and we only get light rain on the N edge? I-70 Crew would see nothing if that solution were to play out for tomorrow.

Les I always look at climo as well in these situations and since we are in mid-summer models tend to be to far south with this kind of set up. I believe we are in a perfect spot and with this warm front meaning business I believe Dayton has a better shot of heavier rain than Louisville on Tuesday. Later in the week I believe that will be just the opposite.

Would love to see 1-2" . That would be perfect, like what we got last week. Did you see the 18Z GFS? 600 DM Heights 1st week of Aug. Major heat, record breaking in fact. I suspect more heat is coming, we're not done yet but even this last time, we never did get 95. CVG had 92. Clouds 89'ed us Sat. So much for that heat wave! As long as we keep getting rain in between, the heat is never going to pan out as modeled. Not here. To the west yes, but not here.

Louisville has the sweet-spot again today. In Cincinnati and bordering counties we should see light to sometimes moderate off and on rain for most of the morning.