Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:05 pm**

The snowfall maps give more of a broad range and that is fine. Going to be certain areas that are maybe 20-30 miles apart that have a 4 inch difference with no problem. Even with an all snow event models will not hit every place correctly and that is fine because you are trying to give a more general ideal what may fall. Again in the warmer months we really never talk about missing a rain forecast by .25 but in winter the folks will torch you at the stake missing it that much lol.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:07 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:13 am FV3 Model - A short range model... no idea if it's good or bad. But the image I found looks awesome lol

FV3.jpg

FV3 is supposed to be the long term replacement/improvement for the GFS. Everything the GFS is bad at, the FV3 is supposed to improve, while also keeping what the GFS is good at. GFS is like 30 something years old at this point.

https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:07 pm**

Sorry I'm not sure where I can ask a question....We are traveling to Disney for dance competition High School Dance Team. The girls and my fight leave around 3 tomorrow, however my brother(dad of a dancer) is on the flight for 3 on Thursday... what are the chances of A - my flight getting canceled or delayed and B - his? He can't move his flight so he has rented a car and might have to drive but we don't want Ice. Is there somewhere I can keep up to date on what the predictions are? Or just keep following along here? THANK YOU ALL!!

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:09 pm**

Teresaw721 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:07 pm Sorry I'm not sure where I can ask a question....We are traveling to Disney for dance competition High School Dance Team. The girls and my fight leave around 3 tomorrow, however my brother(dad of a dancer) is on the flight for 3 on Thursday... what are the chances of A - my flight getting canceled or delayed and B - his? He can't move his flight so he has rented a car and might have to drive but we don't want Ice. Is there somewhere I can keep up to date on what the predictions are? Or just keep following along here? THANK YOU ALL!!

Just ask like that. 3p tomorrow you will probably be ok. Thursday looks to be the messy one for sure. Not sure what the airport can do about the ice, if we get it.

Just keep following here. More updates and predictions will be posted throughout today.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:12 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:47 am
dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
Doug this happens quite often and usually because the low pressure is getting stronger than predicted. That could happen in this case but so far models are keeping the low weaker so this is helping us if you want more in the way of winter weather

I hope your reasoning is right!

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:18 pm**

Euro will be the deal breaker for me for today's model guidance anyway. We've got two snowier models and 3 warmer models basically. If the Euro sides with the GFS that's where I'll be headed. If it does not, then more of a sleet and frz rain threat for sure. Temps and rate of precip helps determine how much accumulates too. Such a difficult forecast as it usually the case around here.

EDIT: Speaking only for CVG, when do we change over? 1am or 8am Thurs morning? Make a huge difference in the eventual outcome as well as impacts.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:20 pm**

jjfight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:55 am
dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
I was just talking to my brother about this. Historically, it just seems the warm air wins out. It's happened time after time. Let's hope this one is different!

Yep, it's always the warm upper thermals, the dry slot, sharp cut off or the transfer of energy, ect that gets up with these winter storms. For once just want to see a double digit snow accumulation, it's been a long while!

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:27 pm**

Hey Joe,would be nice to see the double digit total though Les and I got lucky last February. With the system coming out in 2 phases really should the raging warmth we see upstairs. Getting the break between wave 1 and 2 should help in moving the cold air further south and east. How long between the 2 waves has always been a key to my forecast. Also with the low pressures not being to strong you see less of a dry slot

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:29 pm**

I don't seeing the break lasting longer then 2-4 hours. But that is only a guess.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:34 pm**

Let's review... Euro was changing us over at CVG around 7-8am Thursday on the 6Z run. Let's see what the 12Z run does shortly with regards to that. We've got to answer the first question when making a forecast. When does your location changeover from rain to frz rain / sleet? Then second how long does each precip type last before you turn over to snow. Then how much QPF do you have left once you are snowing? Freezing Raining? Sleeting? Ya'll ready for dis?

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:34 pm**

I guess the other part is, do we even see a break? Just because the model shows it, does not mean it will actually happen.

I do think the multiple pieces limit the dreaded dry slot we usually get.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:35 pm**

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:34 pm I guess the other part is, do we even see a break? Just because the model shows it, does not mean it will actually happen.

I do think the multiple pieces limit the dreaded dry slot we usually get.

There will be no dry slot. We don't have a wound up low. If there is a gap, it'll be because there was a gap in the spacing between the two waves of precip.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:43 pm**

When I mentioned the break it means several hours of no preicp or very little precip which would probably be drizzle. If you get to big of a break then the cold air would move to far south so at the moment 3-6 hours would be my guess but again these systems have a mind of their own and we try to come close with timing per the models.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:44 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:27 pm Hey Joe,would be nice to see the double digit total though Les and I got lucky last February. With the system coming out in 2 phases really should the raging warmth we see upstairs. Getting the break between wave 1 and 2 should help in moving the cold air further south and east. How long between the 2 waves has always been a key to my forecast. Also with the low pressures not being to strong you see less of a dry slot

Hey Tim, as you know I'm a big snow weenie, and one of these day we'll see the big dog. Yeah, we won't have to worry about a dry slot which happens in strong winter storms where the heavy snow deform band moves to the NW of us in this setup. We can do real well in these overrunning setups but we need that 850 to cooperate and crash and for the boundary to stall 30 - 50 miles more to the SE to see those heavier snows.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:47 pm**

jjfight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:55 am
dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
I was just talking to my brother about this. Historically, it just seems the warm air wins out. It's happened time after time. Let's hope this one is different!

I agree, and you all have read me complain about it constantly too

- it seems if we get precipitation we don't have the cold, and if we have the cold we don't get the precipitation. Complicating it is that it often seems we miss it by less than 100 miles in any direction and watch Dayton or Lexingont get all the fun.

Granted this last snowstorm Thurs/Fri was a fun surprise!

I am also hoping that it is not the case with this!

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:50 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:34 pm Let's review... Euro was changing us over at CVG around 7-8am Thursday on the 6Z run. Let's see what the 12Z run does shortly with regards to that. We've got to answer the first question when making a forecast. When does your location changeover from rain to frz rain / sleet? Then second how long does each precip type last before you turn over to snow. Then how much QPF do you have left once you are snowing? Freezing Raining? Sleeting?

Thanks for the overview, I was just about to ask about timing- do we start with rain on Wednesday?

Ya'll ready for dis?

I'd like to offer this picture to use when we have no idea what we're going to get - but we're excited.

readyforthis.png

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:51 pm**

Come on King! Give Les what he needs to post BOTH rappers!!!!

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:03 pm**

So far the king is looking really good

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:07 pm**

850s closer to NAM atm

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:08 pm**

Changeover is faster to ice vs 0Z run.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:09 pm**

More like GFS just less QPF. We even snow late Thurs afternoon and evening at CVG.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:11 pm**

Kind of a compromise between the GFS and NAM lol

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:11 pm**

Can someone post ice and kuchera maps please, thanks!

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:14 pm**

Major sleet and frz rain at CVG on the Euro. I'd say 0.75" falls as that p-type. Then the rest as snow probably around 4" give or take. That would be 10:1 Ratio.

Posted: **Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:15 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:11 pm Kind of a compromise between the GFS and NAM lol

Perfectly stated!

Absolute Vorticity

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