Absolute Vorticity

CVG gusting to 28 now as the winds are starting to pick up. Temps rising nicely as well 51 currently. Partly sunny skies.

Flood watch now includes Cincy.

12Z RGEM tracks the low right over Cincy.

12Z GFS bumped south tracking the low right over us. 2" of rain at CVG

55 now at CVG... temps are skyrocketing! Gusting to 33 now.

QPF from the models thus far:

GFS: 2.13”
Canadian: 1.11”
NAM: 0.82”
NAM 3km: 0.90”
HRRR: 1.95”
Euro (6z): 1.07”

Blend of models: 1.33”

I just watched a a premier from Reed Timmer . he showed a simulated future radar that had some isolated severe cells going all the way up into Kentucky tomorrow. I know he is leaving tonight for the chase but not sure what state he will be in tomorrow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 9:39 am Rainfall at CVG is down to about 3/4" so that's a good thing if correct on the NAM. Only thing JP that will help is the wind. Hoping it dries out the pavement some anyway.

Yes that would be the only saving grace. Hoping for the best and expecting the black ice.

Gusts pushing 40 mph now occurring across the area.

Wow... 12Z GFS is getting back to winter from 2/24 on... Yeow-zaaa!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 12:30 pm Wow... 12Z GFS is getting back to winter from 2/24 on... Yeow-zaaa!

Last hurrah for ya??

Yes, hoping that black ice won't be much of an issue for Fri i.e. as my dad will be going to a 3 day Darke Co multi-church event. At least it'll be locally here in Greenville.

Currently 50 here with a gust to 25 mph and progged to top out at around 55 degrees later.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 12:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 12:30 pm Wow... 12Z GFS is getting back to winter from 2/24 on... Yeow-zaaa!

Last hurrah for ya??

I've been talking about it in early March but I'll take it whenever Trev!

12Z GEFS members showing rain for Tues but as we cool down once the week rolls on, a wintry mix and some snow also possible as Thurs and Fri of next week rolls on.

12Z CMC showing a similar solution for 2nd half of next week.

The Euro has the low track right over us for the current system. Rainfall amounts at CVG around 1.23"

61 now at CVG, winds gusting to 37.

Good Afternoon and had to move my moms furniture into my house today and the u-haul was all over the place with the wind. I will look at the models here shortly but Les from what you have posted I believe the mjo staying in 3 instead of how some models had it going into 4 quickly will make a difference on winter weather later this month into early March.

EU tuesday next week is tomorrows twin

Yeah the 12Z Euro says get out the boats next week and keeps us too warm for wintry fun.

WOW after next tuesdays rain , models are all over the place in regards to when the cold moves in and also when it leaves

The next several weeks are looking to keep us all pretty busy! Wind, heavy rain, strong storms, and wintry weather are all on the table!

18Z NAM tracking the low over Cincinnati... CVG currently up to 63 now gusting to 31.

Looking like some freezing rain will be in my area looking at the 18z

64 for my high today... wow! Peak wind gust around 40. CVG gusted to 37 today. 1.75" of rain at CVG from the 18Z GFS. GFS seems to be the wettest of all models. I like and inch and some change for most folks. If strong storms develop and train then 2"+ easy. I don't know where that will set up though. It's a nowcast for that.