Absolute Vorticity

5pm climo report officially says 89 for CVG.

Upper 80s and DPs around 60 doesn't seem like an air quality alert kind of day, but thats just MO

Some wonderful rains for the desert SW and 4 corners over the last few weeks . Monsoon season has been kind this year . Even now getting into the mountains of Cowleeeeefornia and good chances for that area the next few days.

And from the weather you can't find dept. ,the past week has seen more record cold in Brazil, South Africa, and Australia with plenty of snow in the Mountains and some lower elevations for the latter two. Crop losses continue to be devastating for Brazil reaching disastrous proportions. Especially the all important corn grain crop , shortages are already predicted. How severe may be dependent on how the USs corn crop can pick up any slack.

Waiting for the max temp to update at CVG to see if a sneaky 90 got in there today or if we truly did get 89'ed. Will update our contest thread in the morning to be sure.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:45 pm Waiting for the max temp to update at CVG to see if a sneaky 90 got in there today or if we truly did get 89'ed. Will update our contest thread in the morning to be sure.

Looks official

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Good Morning and was a little shocked we ended up at 89 yesterday. I know the smoke from the fires out west made it hazy plus imo kept temps down a degree or two just like last week. With the heat just to the west the mcs at night are no doubt rather strong. One this morning that will not make it here but one tonight into Thursday has a chance to be really strong but how far southeast does it go before dying out. Lot to talk about for Thursday and will do that after my morning walk.

Day 11 of dry weather in my hood - seems like it's feast or famine. Tomorrow is our typical "one day shot" before 10 more dry days! LOL

We'll see if any severe wx can occur Thurs and Thurs night. By this evening, a derecho will be forming over MN tracking SE bound. A slight risk of severe wx for another MCS is in effect for folks N and E of Cincy with a marginal risk elsewhere for Thursday. Otherwise, if that fails, it's gonna be a while for rain. That cooler and drier talk is panning out IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:30 am We'll see if any severe wx can occur Thurs and Thurs night. By this evening, a derecho will be forming over MN tracking SE bound. A slight risk of severe wx for another MCS is in effect for folks N and E of Cincy with a marginal risk elsewhere for Thursday. Otherwise, if that fails, it's gonna be a while for rain. That cooler and drier talk is panning out IMO.

Don't need no derecho. Supposed to be leaving for a week tomorrow night. Working as last as possible today to try to get tomorrows work done just in case. I like the dryer and cooler talk that you mention. Have a great everyone. Stay cool.

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:21 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:30 am We'll see if any severe wx can occur Thurs and Thurs night. By this evening, a derecho will be forming over MN tracking SE bound. A slight risk of severe wx for another MCS is in effect for folks N and E of Cincy with a marginal risk elsewhere for Thursday. Otherwise, if that fails, it's gonna be a while for rain. That cooler and drier talk is panning out IMO.

Don't need no derecho. Supposed to be leaving for a week tomorrow night. Working as last as possible today to try to get tomorrows work done just in case. I like the dryer and cooler talk that you mention. Have a great everyone. Stay cool.

Some areas may get a line of strong winds but pinpointing where is tough right now. I have been favoring CMH area the most in my thoughts since yesterday so we'll have to wait and see what kind of boundary the first round lays out (to our NW) that occurs tonight.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:11 am Day 11 of dry weather in my hood - seems like it's feast or famine. Tomorrow is our typical "one day shot" before 10 more dry days! LOL

Same with my hood - Today is Day 11, tomorrow is 12 so hope that is a lucky number. The next one after that would not be.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:50 am Good Morning and was a little shocked we ended up at 89 yesterday. I know the smoke from the fires out west made it hazy plus imo kept temps down a degree or two just like last week. With the heat just to the west the mcs at night are no doubt rather strong. One this morning that will not make it here but one tonight into Thursday has a chance to be really strong but how far southeast does it go before dying out. Lot to talk about for Thursday and will do that after my morning walk.

Good morning Tim! Also surprised, CVG didn't get to at least 90. I had 91 here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:30 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:50 am Good Morning and was a little shocked we ended up at 89 yesterday. I know the smoke from the fires out west made it hazy plus imo kept temps down a degree or two just like last week. With the heat just to the west the mcs at night are no doubt rather strong. One this morning that will not make it here but one tonight into Thursday has a chance to be really strong but how far southeast does it go before dying out. Lot to talk about for Thursday and will do that after my morning walk.

Good morning Tim! Also surprised, CVG didn't get to at least 90. I had 91 here.

Good Morning Les. Thursday is interesting and it starts tonight when a mcs should develop and head southeast. It will get weaker but where will the leftover boundary be and when do we get the second build up later Thursday. There will be moisture pooling ahead of the front so that is not the problem but sometimes once they start to fire later Thursday they will head towards the heat which will be greater south of us. A bust in the forecast can go either way and really is more of a now cast. Love to see 1/2-1 inch of rainfall which along with cooler and drier air for several days will keep the vegetation lush. I know some folks have not got much in terms of rainfall the last two weeks which is really a more typical summer pattern because July and August we average about 7.5 inches of rainfall but my guess we probably only average 10 days of rain during that 62 day period.

I agree Tim... there will be some areas that get an inch of rain out of it. Do we have one blob of storms, a scattered or broken line of storms? There will be some have and have not's once again coming up. Like you said, whomever gets wet, with the cooler temps, the moisture will go a lot further. No doubt there. Just need it to rain.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/07/28/goode- ... -blog-728/

Clouds from the area or rainfall northwest of us this morning is keeping temps down somewhat. Do we make 90 because of the cloud cover?

87 as of 2pm...

So one thing that is in our favor for strong/severe storms tomorrow is the CAPE is forecast to be quite high (3000-4000+ potentially) and there will be the outflow from tonight's activity laid out somewhere. The biggest trigger will be to our east, but can't rule out scattered action here. You know the drill - one hood gets rocked, and the one down the road gets nothing.

Also shear looks ok - nothing earth shattering but definitely warranted for the SLGT risk (which was extended further WEST in the 1:30 update)

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:02 pm So one thing that is in our favor for strong/severe storms tomorrow is the CAPE is forecast to be quite high (3000-4000+ potentially) and there will be the outflow from tonight's activity laid out somewhere. The biggest trigger will be to our east, but can't rule out scattered action here. You know the drill - one hood gets rocked, and the one down the road gets nothing.

I agree and watch out on Thursday in the later part of the afternoon as the storms will head towards the heat which will still be around here but even more just to our south,

I just hope it's not one of those deals like Mike mentioned the other day where storms fire and miss you to the north and east, only to re-fire to your South and miss you again. The direction of the storms and track is what is most unique. From the NE to the SW.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:25 pm I just hope it's not one of those deals like Mike mentioned the other day where storms fire and miss you to the north and east, only to re-fire to your South and miss you again. The direction of the storms and track is what is most unique. From the NE to the SW.

Les - this has happened so frequently up here it is hard not to mention.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:25 pm I just hope it's not one of those deals like Mike mentioned the other day where storms fire and miss you to the north and east, only to re-fire to your South and miss you again. The direction of the storms and track is what is most unique. From the NE to the SW.

Les - this has happened so frequently up here it is hard not to mention.

Here too.