Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:06 pm I-70 Crew.. for you guys, the stronger the storm the better. All snow for you folks IMO. For you guys it's more of a question of QPF. Do we get the GFS or Euro version of the storm in other words? My forecast confidence is probably the lowest for you guys.

That's exactly right. No ice up here. We can say that with about a 90%. The consistency of the GFS has been amazing. It hasn't waffled at all. It's either going to score a coup or it's going to bust badly. I think the truth will likely fall somewhere in the middle. If it buckles with the new data on the 00z run then we know what is going to happen. If the Nam and the American models hold, who knows? Cincinnati land looks to be golden on almost every model at the moment. It would be hard for you guys, at this point, to not see something significant.

Thanks Doug! I was hoping we'd get the region wide 6"+ job we were seeing the other day. We'll see. The chance is not dead yet.

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:36 pm It’s going to be interesting what the 0z nam hi res has in store.

It'll be like the 12Z Euro or continue it's amperage like the 18Z run.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:35 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:33 pm WAVEs map seems to correspond pretty well with what the NWS in Louisville is saying in their AFD.

For sure! It's going to be an interesting next 24 hours.

That’s what we say every time around here!

I LOVE how the ground is being primed for this event. We stayed in the 20s today and will be in the teens and 20s for the duration of the event. Maybe 30ish in our extreme S counties but for most, we should be in the 20s for this one. Perfect surface temp! Just need the mid levels to play nicely.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:35 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:33 pm WAVEs map seems to correspond pretty well with what the NWS in Louisville is saying in their AFD.

For sure! It's going to be an interesting next 24 hours.

That’s what we say every time around here!

Lol it will be ok! Just stay calm

Hi all. Even though it still looks like I will get some freezing rain in my area, the amount looks to have lessened based on the various models. I can handle more to .10-.25 than the .50. I guess we shall see. Snow total looks to be 4-8 inches.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:41 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:35 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:33 pm WAVEs map seems to correspond pretty well with what the NWS in Louisville is saying in their AFD.

For sure! It's going to be an interesting next 24 hours.

That’s what we say every time around here!

Lol it will be ok! Just stay calm

allowat3 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:42 pm Hi all. Even though it still looks like I will get some freezing rain in my area, the amount looks to have lessened based on the various models. I can handle more to .10-.25 than the .50. I guess we shall see. Snow total looks to be 4-8 inches.

I like that call for you Mark at this time. Still a very significant event! Looks like the hounds have their thinking toques on.

Oh... since we have a lot of new folks in here (again, THANK YOU for joining! I hope we get more)... if you have not already done so, please update your profile or forum signature as to what your location is. That'll make it easy for reporting and observations sake once the storm gets going. Thanks! Or... you can type it manually into your post, whatever.

I hope we see a lot of reports and some pics too!

EDIT: If there are questions let me know. You can send me an IM as well thru the forum if need be.

LOL! I checked the 18Z GEFS Snowfall Mean and at a 10:1 Ratio it is at 10" for everyone bordering the river. Some of that has to be sleet! I checked the precip type maps and there are just as many ensemble members that keep us all snow and just as many that don't.

I think sweet spot will be Middletown to Dayton , 15" if no mixing

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:53 pm LOL! I checked the 18Z GEFS Snowfall Mean and at a 10:1 Ratio it is at 10" for everyone bordering the river. Some of that has to be sleet! I checked the precip type maps and there are just as many ensemble members that keep us all snow and just as many that don't.

So the glass is half full or half empty, depending on how you look at it!

Wow, how about that! Check out the WPC snow probabilities. Very impressive!!!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php

alexdever73 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:54 pm I think sweet spot will be Middletown to Dayton , 15" if no mixing

Very possible! I would not discount anything yet. In about 24 hours, we'll know the answer. Hopefully...

Okay folks... time for a short dinner break. I'll be back for the 18Z Euro.

What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!

Thanks!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:13 pm What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!

Thanks!

Looking pretty good at the moment. Warren and Butler counties along with Southern Montgomery county look to stay all snow. My personal opinion says that you have a pretty decent shot at getting 6+ inches.

18z Euro keeps the ice well South of us and we get buried with snow. Not much on the wraparound, but in double digit accumulation, I’ll take it.

Per the text data anyway, CVG still mixes with some sleet.
12Z was a BS run. Nice to see some of the QPF return (though still the driest model).

Here's the rest...

The stage is already being set. Moisture at 700 MB from SPC meso page:

Can someone provide there best guess on timing with start and finish here? cVG

Here's the current US radar loop:

I want to talk about it. You can already see where the snow band is going to set up on the cold side of the baroclinic boundary. Frontogenic forcing at 700 MB is already occurring and we are moistening the atmosphere up ahead of action over Montana and the Rockies / West Coast coming in from the low off shore. Tomorrow the a new low forms in OK or TX Panhandle area and moisture will begin to get drawn northward from the Gulf and the precip shield will grow and expand. It'll be a nice sight to see! Once it gets going, by tomorrow night, we'll know how at least Sunday will play out. We may not know about Monday until the last minute.

This is going to be a long duration event. How long depends on how Monday works out with regards to how fast the energy transfer occurs. Slow to none, nice deform snows that will last into the evening. A faster transfer done in the morning.

Will be interesting to see what the short range models do. They’re a bit out of their range, but they are all in the more north camp. We’ll really need to start looking at the trends here starting tonight and begin to focus less on the globals.

MattyD wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:59 pm Can someone provide there best guess on timing with start and finish here? cVG

I am thinking midday Sunday for the steadier snow to begin. Could see flakes in the morning if some guidance is correct. We should be able to better handle this tomorrow as we begin to see things unfold to the West. End time? Again, depends on how the energy transfer goes for Monday. The models will struggle with it too.