Absolute Vorticity

CVG got to 48 and both DAY / CMH 46 on Christmas Day.

Good morning to you all! Look for more gloomy conditions and rain in the coming days. The best chances are Fri, Sat, Early Sun, and NYE. Cooler weather with temps in the 30s moves in by NYD. Temps mainly in the 50s for highs thru NYE with lows in the 40s. Then we move to highs in the 30s lows in the 20s by NYD. Future snow chances are still TBD.

Latest rainfall forecast from WPC over the next seven days

CVG reached 55, DAY 54 and CMH 51 today.

HAPPY 63RD BIRTHDAY JOE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

I hope that you and your family had a great Christmas!

Good morning all! Happy Birthday Joe! I hope you have a wonderful day!

There has been a lack of posting on here recently for two reasons. One being the most obvious, it is Christmas Time so people are busy with their family and friends, doing their thing. The other is the lack of wintry weather and nothing worth starting a thread over as of yet. We know the cold is coming, but is it going to be cold and dry with a cutter in between cold shots OR can we get something to line up correctly?

Per the Aussies, the MJO is still along the Phase 5 / 6 region. Models are still consistent on getting us into Phase 7 before the end of the year and into weak Phase 8 in early January. We'll see if that works out or not. I think it has stalled longer then expected in Phases 5 / 6.

LaNina still in the process of peaking

Good Morning and here in Wisconsin and its raining so its a pain to walk on the ice. Only about 2-3 inches left at my son's house though about 50-60 miles south a good 6-8 inches on the ground as systems here have been going further south than models showed in the past few weeks.

Glad you made it safely Tim! Enjoy what snow you do have before it melts away. It'll return soon up there I would imagine.

A steady light rain here, breezy with a moderate shower at times. I hit 50 around 10am but down to 48 with the rain. New precip so far today is around a tenth of an inch.

Good morning all! A coupe more big soakers on the way to close out 2024. Tonight into Sunday and again on Tuesday NYE. Both look to feature heavy rain, wind, and a low moving right thru the region. 1-2" of rain is certainly on the table from both systems combined. Not bad today and Monday though if you need to do anything outside.

Quite impressive for late December imo!

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...

Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely

Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Both CVG / DAY got to 61 and CMH 62 today.

A few reports from today ...

2038 UNK 4 NW Kingwood Montgomery TX 3010 9523 *** 10 INJ *** State of Texas SOC initial assessments indicate 80 homes with major or destroyed damage in the Porter area ... with 10 patients transported to local hospital. (HGX)

2124 6 ESE Bude Franklin MS 3142 9077 *** 1 INJ *** Citizen trapped in a house on Berrytown Cir. 1 injury reported. (JAN)

2125 9 SSE Hamshire Jefferson TX 2975 9424 *** 1 INJ *** Report of a minor injury as a motorist was caught in the tornado crossing Jefferson County earlier. Time and location approximate. (LCH)

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
240 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-291545-
/O.NEW.KILN.WI.Y.0006.241229T1500Z-241230T0400Z/
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-
Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-

Including the cities of Augusta, Hillsboro, Alexandria, Urbana,
Lebanon, Williamstown, Dayton, Ada, Ripley, London, Xenia,
Batesville, Withamsville, Crittenden, Dillsboro, Connersville,
West College Corner, Springboro, Bellefontaine, Summerside,
Aurora, Downtown Dayton, Tipp City, Portsmouth, Fairfield, Mount
Orab, Owenton, Highland Heights, Versailles, St. Marys, Peebles,
Downtown Cincinnati, Mount Carmel, Logan, Dry Ridge, Milan,
Bright, Sidney, Minster, Lawrenceburg, Washington Court House,
Rising Sun, Greenfield, Manchester, Plain City, Tollesboro,
Blanchester, Covington, Chillicothe, Fort Thomas, Kettering,
Coldwater, Fairborn, Brookville, Lancaster, Landen, Pike Lake,
Greendale, Liberty, Pickerington, Mulberry, Carrollton, Hidden
Valley, Greenville, Brooksville, Butler, Newport, West Jefferson,
Mason, Seaman, Waverly, Camp Dix, Independence, Beavercreek,
Kenton, Oakbrook, Maysville, Vanceburg, Wapakoneta, Springfield,
Wheelersburg, Milford, Falmouth, West Union, Winchester, Vevay,
Newark, Aberdeen, Erlanger, Oxford, Day Heights, Circleville,
Marysville, Downtown Columbus, Hamilton, Head Of Grassy, Celina,
Eaton, Middletown, Franklin, Bellevue, Mount Olivet, Georgetown,
Richmond, Piqua, Troy, Camden, Mount Repose, Piketon, Florence,
Wilmington, Burlington, Osgood, Warsaw, New Bremen, and Delaware
240 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080-082-300930-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Highland-Pike-
417 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio
and west central Ohio.

DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Wind Advisory

A line of showers and thunderstorms may develop along a cold front
this afternoon. Stronger showers or storms will have the potential to
produce strong to damaging winds. Also, an isolated tornado can not
be ruled out.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

$$

----

As of 7am qpf

----

Wind advisory is justified from the boys... 40-50 mph gusts IMBY. Was a " nice" ride home from my Brother's. Driving sheets of rain and wind. Love it! 1.4" or so around here / CVG event total this far. 992 MB low moving thru our forecast area so strong winds will continue thru this evening before slowing backing off overnight.

A nice Monday on tap, then we get more rain Mon night into NYE. Then on to 2025 and winter's return!

We’re going to wind up 2+ degrees above normal for December

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:55 pm We’re going to wind up 2+ degrees above normal for December

That's a bummer too since most of the month had been cold.

Per the Aussies, MJO is in Phase 6 as of 12/27 and moving towards 7. It maybe in 7 by tomorrow or the next day I would say provided it keeps moving as forecast.