Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and yes Happy Halloween to everyone. Finally hit the magical 60 degree dew point. Not sure the last time we saw this happen. Nothing really to add to Les's forecast. No 80 degree temps and I thought we had a shot the past few days but upper 70's warm enough. Time to start looking towards November and will post in that thread but one item for sure is we become busy and I am ready

Good morning Tim! Happy Halloween to you and the family also. Radar is looking decent off to the West but I still believe that we will see a weakening trend as the line approaches later on today. We shall see how it all shakes out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:55 am Good morning Tim! Happy Halloween to you and the family also. Radar is looking decent off to the West but I still believe that we will see a weakening trend as the line approaches later on today. We shall see how it all shakes out.

Good Morning Les and yes I believe the twins who are the youngest will probably be their last trick-or treat. They will hit 13 next week and wow the time goes by so fast. Many folks to the west got anywhere between 1/2-1 inch in most locations and I believe if we cut that in half is a decent forecast but with all systems some folks may get the short end and some a tad more but not much. Wind like you mentioned is the big event today

Made top 5 again (cvg) yesterday for both highest max temp and highest temp mean. Both Kday and Kcmh finished at number one all time for Mean

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 7:09 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:55 am Good morning Tim! Happy Halloween to you and the family also. Radar is looking decent off to the West but I still believe that we will see a weakening trend as the line approaches later on today. We shall see how it all shakes out.

Good Morning Les and yes I believe the twins who are the youngest will probably be their last trick-or treat. They will hit 13 next week and wow the time goes by so fast. Many folks to the west got anywhere between 1/2-1 inch in most locations and I believe if we cut that in half is a decent forecast but with all systems some folks may get the short end and some a tad more but not much. Wind like you mentioned is the big event today

My Brother's wife is working today but he is bringing the boys over tonight to go Trick-or-treating in my neighborhood. My niece is going to be going with her friends in Milford. Only good thing about the wind is it'll help get those leaves down faster. The oaks will be the only thing left in my hood and those always take forever. They are still very green. We really could use some cold air to speed that process up but we know that isn't happening anytime soon.

Winter weather advisory in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Finally some winter weather in the lower 48 besides the mountains. Nothing unusual as the normal highs in the northern plains and upper mid-west this time of year is high temps in the upper 40's and lows in the upper 20's for many areas. Again winter is coming and it just seems far off with the beautiful temps in the afternoon this month but again this month overall still nowhere near the warmest ever and will be in that 3 1/2 degrees above normal. Milder than normal across the country is common when La Nina is at the doorstep so again nothing unusual about October at all except the dryness continues but that will change in November as I expect above normal rainfall and temps before we see the first true cold shot late in the month or early December.

Nice update from the boys and it pretty much matches up with my thinking too.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front pushing into the Mississippi Valley early this
morning will continue eastward and get into the western part of
the forecast area by the end of the day. Showers occurring well
ahead of the front will move into the area, mainly after noon.
While not straightforward, it appears that there will be a
weakening trend in this activity, this despite affecting the
area during a diurnally favorable time of day. While warm
advection will result in another very warm day, highs in the 70s
to lower 80s, insolation will be limited due to an extensive mid
deck of clouds and an increase in lower clouds. Instability is
forecast to be quite limited, but cannot completely rule out a
bit of thunder.

A low level jet will translate into the region this morning and
then weaken this afternoon as it lifts northeast. Mixing into
even a portion of this low level jet will result in rather gusty
winds. The highest winds are expected from mid morning into the
early afternoon with a slight decrease in gust magnitude mid to
late afternoon. There is a window ahead of any showers where
gusts may get as high as 50 mph in the northwest part of the
forecast area. Thus a wind advisory has been issued for those
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
during the evening. Pre-frontal showers will diminish, but a
fine line of showers may develop right along the front and track
along with the boundary. There could be a brief increase in
gusts right at frontal passage, but thereafter winds will
gradually subside through the overnight. Clouds will decrease as
well.

HAPPY HOWLOWEEN AV COMMUNITY!!

Was a Nightmare on Bronx Street as Freddy and Crew took care of the Bombers!

Wind Advisory for up this way until 2 PM.

Currently 64 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 73.

CVG gusted to 26 mph as of 9am already.

----

Peak gust so far at CVG has been 35 mph.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:02 am Peak gust so far at CVG has been 35 mph.

It's pretty blustery outside in my hood right now. Really need that to get the F outta here. I can't put out quite a few of my decorations because the wind or rain aren't good to them. But I am even having to go back and constantly rebuild the stuff I do have out there. Getting sick of it, honestly. All I needed was one damn day.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:02 am Peak gust so far at CVG has been 35 mph.

It's pretty blustery outside in my hood right now. Really need that to get the F outta here. I can't put out quite a few of my decorations because the wind or rain aren't good to them. But I am even having to go back and constantly rebuild the stuff I do have out there. Getting sick of it, honestly. All I needed was one damn day.

What I think will happen is the wind / rain dies down during some portion of the Trick-or-treat time this evening but ramps back up with the front again after 8pm. We need the rain. Bad timing since it is Halloween, but you know as well as I do, Mother Nature doesn't care.

I get it; it's just incredibly frustrating to go an entire month with nothing, then the ONE day it won't quit blowing. Grrrr!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 12:25 pm I get it; it's just incredibly frustrating to go an entire month with nothing, then the ONE day it won't quit blowing. Grrrr!

I totally understand Dave. It could have rained / the wind blew for the last 30 days in a row, etc etc. Just let it be nice on Halloween.

We got the forecast right though with regards to the weakening trend and going lower then the models for rainfall amounts. Check out the radar folks... it is definitely petering out. The wind is still there most certainly but the rain may not be too bad for the kiddies later on.

The boys echo this for their update:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT/...

A sw-ne oriented cold front will be located just northwest of
the I- 71 corridor a little before midnight tonight. A line of
showers will precede this front, ending as it passes. Ahead of
the front is expected to be a ridge of high pressure, which
should mark the beginning of these showers.

ATTM, the timing between the ridge and the front looks to be
during prime trick-or-treat hours between 5 and 8 pm. One piece
of good news here is that the showers (along with some rumbles
of thunder) will be quite transitory. They are only expected to
last in any one place for a half hour to 40 minutes.
Additionally, the strongest winds are expected to lighten as
the rain begins, though it will still be gusty through about
midnight.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:18 pm We got the forecast right though with regards to the weakening trend and going lower then the models for rainfall amounts. Check out the radar folks... it is definitely petering out. The wind is still there most certainly but the rain may not be too bad for the kiddies later on.

I think we’ve been spot on with amounts going back a week ago and not falling for the widespread heavier amounts most of the models were showing for today and even the first few days of November . It just didn’t jive with the pattern for the OV

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:18 pm We got the forecast right though with regards to the weakening trend and going lower then the models for rainfall amounts. Check out the radar folks... it is definitely petering out. The wind is still there most certainly but the rain may not be too bad for the kiddies later on.

I think we’ve been spot on with amounts going back a week ago and not falling for the widespread heavier amounts most of the models were showing for today and even the first few days of November . It just didn’t jive with the pattern for the OV

Not at all... in fact, as we are discussing in the November thread, the system for next week is trending the same way.

SIDE NOTE: If you have not entered the CVG snowfall contest yet, please do so TODAY. This is the last day to enter and any entries that are posted tomorrow will not be accepted. We have (I think) 8 people who have entered. Let's see if we can get a few more.

https://www.absolutevorticity.com/viewt ... 1&start=25

Wow something falling out of the sky. Not quite sure what it is but will report later

Light rain here in Mason too.... just in time for the ride home. 0.03" as of 2pm at CVG.

better now, thanks for letting me rant a little! Winds have more or less died down. Just light rain/drizzle here now. I can totally work with that. I have my animatronic Werewolf and my new addition, the Ghost of Captain Cutler for those of you who watched Scooby-Doo! Where Are You? all set up in my garage, will roll them out at 5:30. I have Pennywise all set up in my storm sewer. I managed to effect repairs on my cornfield where the wind broke the twine on one of the courses. All my light up tombstones and skeletal dogs/cats are loaded in the front hall ready to get carried outside. Just need to cool off a little and finish the final touches on my new Headless Horseman costume.

Let's Scare the Hell Outta This!!!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:26 pm better now, thanks for letting me rant a little! Winds have more or less died down. Just light rain/drizzle here now. I can totally work with that. I have my animatronic Werewolf and my new addition, the Ghost of Captain Cutler for those of you who watched Scooby-Doo! Where Are You? all set up in my garage, will roll them out at 5:30. I have Pennywise all set up in my storm sewer. I managed to effect repairs on my cornfield where the wind broke the twine on one of the courses. All my light up tombstones and skeletal dogs/cats are loaded in the front hall ready to get carried outside. Just need to cool off a little and finish the final touches on my new Headless Horseman costume.

Let's Scare the Hell Outta This!!!

That is awesome Dave! I loved Scooby Doo and also LOVE horror movies, especially Pennywise! They all float down here! ®