Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:40 pm Wow! From NWS Tallahassee:

Some 2 day totals nearing 12-16 inches of rain so far as estimated by radar across lower portions of the Apalachicola River Basin. More to come.

Yes and this is before the Hurricane arrives. They really need a more eastern track with landfall

Hurricane force winds extend outwards of 60 miles from the center and TS force winds 400 miles from the center! That's just ridiculous! Going to be a rough couple of days coming up from the Gulf, S Apps and even for parts of the OV too.

Listen to a lady from FEMA and she is worried about widespread trouble is expected before all is said and done. Very worried about the rainfall in the Asheville/Greenville areas plus several tornado's today and of course all the problems especially storm surge with the Hurricane. Sometimes they mention we have plenty of resources to take care of the different problems but this time another person that is very concerned and I agree.

Les I was watching some of the webcams from the Yucatan yesterday when the storm was getting together and at that point you could tell this is going to be one heck of a storm. Also the waves that were in the keys were quite rough though they are not in the crosshairs. Yes we go by wind speed and rainfall but sometimes you can get a good clue just by looking out the window lol.

Something to consider with the winds tomorrow is the severe drought conditions has put trees in a weakened state. Low moisture levels in the wood and limbs make them more brittle and less elastic . Trees and limbs depend on their sway to shed the winds. So , hopefully the higher gusts don’t make it into our hoods

125 mph now as of 5pm and the forward speed continues to increase at 23 mph moving NNE. This tells me with the forward speed continuing to increase, that this thing will have momentum well inland for strong winds. We'll have to wait and see how this shakes out for our hoods wind wise, but 50-60 mph gusts, esp S of the River is not out of the question at all IMO. Like I said earlier, prepare for a power outage now if you need too and if it doesn't happen, awesome! For some folks on our forum it probably will.

Showers are starting to move into our SE counties now in KY and that will continue to overspread the area overnight tonight. A wet and windy day on tap for tomorrow. More steady showers at times for this weekend as well. We go from one extreme to the other. That's how we roll!

12Z Euro precip and wind gust maps. The Ranger's not gonna like this, Yogi!

“Leave the wind , take the precip “

I normally would keep this in the tropical subforum but since we will be impacted also by this system it needs to be here!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:19 pm “Leave the wind , take the precip “

I wish my friend. I wish...

I hope the interns woke Kevin up a little earlier than usual

Water vapor and or satellite imagery tomorrow when the two lows merge is going to be a sight to see meteorlogically

Let's hope this doesn't happen. This would be a widespread problem.

Another shift from this mornings track from NHC. A shift east at landfall, a softer turn through Tennessee and back into southern KY

Wow, is the trend east(landfall) /and more north(OV) over or does it continue??

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:56 pm Wow, is the trend east(landfall) /and more north(OV) over or does it continue??



IMG_2325.png

Also, unless I've been staring at the computer too long today it looks like it slows down and stays in southern KY longer?

I think those higher rainfall totals may pan out. A steady light rain has already started here. Much earlier then I anticipated.

Lightning on the increase

Helene is rapidly intensifying too and should do so up until landfall. No doubt in my mind a Cat 4 incoming to the Panhandle of FL. Still 125 mph as of 6pm. NHC is updating every hour now. Pressure down to 950 MB moving NNE at 23 mph.

EDIT: Recon now finding 948 MB.

We can expect to see hurricane force wind gusts from the Gulf all the way into Atlanta, GA by tomorrow morning. Widespread tree damage and power outages in that large area of real-estate. Then on top of that the massive flooding that is also expected across the same area and into the S Apps / Foothills of the Carolinas. The Smokies, East KY, etc. We will have our own local issues too but not like the folks to our south obviously.

Wow... last couple of radar scans show the eye becoming more symmetrical and tight. Eye appears to be clearing out too. No doubt about it. This storm is probably a Cat 4 already or will be at the 7pm update IMO.

WTNT64 KNHC 262218
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION

ALERT: NHC says a Cat 4, they just updated!

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

EDIT You read my mind Bgoney!

23 mph forward speed……. Kind of looks still more east of NHC track.